🗞️ Direction Unclear Amid Trump Tariff Turmoil — Can the Dollar Rally Resume?
分析と予測

🗞️ Direction Unclear Amid Trump Tariff Turmoil — Can the Dollar Rally Resume?

24 2月 2026, 11:30
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
0
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🗞️ Direction Unclear Amid Trump Tariff Turmoil — Can the Dollar Rally Resume?

🎯 Today’s Theme

Tariffs and geopolitical risks are colliding.
The key question: Can the dollar uptrend resume?

Following last week’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling that Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” were unlawful, markets initially tilted toward dollar selling.

However, President Donald Trump then invoked an alternative legal basis to impose a flat 10% global tariff, with reports suggesting efforts to raise it to 15%.

Uncertainty has widened once again.

🌍 Political Drivers: Tariffs × Iran

  • Reciprocal tariffs ruled unlawful

  • 10% universal tariff introduced under alternative authority

  • Speculation of a 15% increase

  • U.S.–Iran talks scheduled in Geneva on the 26th

  • Trump signaling potential military firmness

👉 Rising volatility from both trade and geopolitics
👉 Market oscillating between “buy USD” and “sell America” narratives

💴 FX Snapshot (Early London)

USD/JPY is the focal point.

  • Tokyo low: 154.53

  • London high: 156.28

  • Currently: mid-155s

More than 1 yen dollar strength versus the previous day.

EUR/USD:

  • Narrow 1.1768–1.1796 range

  • Largely sidelined

EUR/JPY:

  • 182.21 → 184.19

👉 Today’s market is clearly yen-driven.

🇯🇵 Yen Weakness Factors

  • Reports that Prime Minister Takaichi is hesitant about further BOJ rate hikes

  • Early tightening expectations fading

  • Attention on upcoming BOJ personnel developments

While the yen remains weak, intervention risks still linger at higher levels.

🇺🇸 Conditions for a Dollar Rally Resumption

Last week’s dollar strength was supported by:

  • Strong U.S. economic data

  • Fading BOJ tightening expectations

  • Widening rate differentials

Currently shaken by politics — but if the following align:

✔ U.S. data re-accelerates
✔ Treasury yields rise
✔ Risk-off flows convert into dollar buying

Then a renewed dollar uptrend becomes plausible.

📊 Key U.S. Data Today

  • FHFA House Price Index

  • Case-Shiller Home Prices

  • Wholesale Inventories

  • Richmond Fed Index

  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence

📌 Consumer confidence is especially important.

🎙 Heavy Speaker Schedule

  • Goolsbee, Cook (NABE event)

  • Waller, Bostic, Collins

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde

  • BOE Governor Andrew Bailey

  • U.S. 2-year Treasury auction ($69B)

👉 If yields move, the dollar will follow.

🔎 Conclusion

✔ Current dollar strength is yen-driven
✔ Tariff headlines create unstable directionality
✔ Geopolitical risks add noise
✔ A sustained dollar rally requires rate-led momentum

The trend may not be broken — it may simply be paused.

If U.S. data and yields cooperate,
the dollar has room to reassert upward momentum.

However, continued vigilance is necessary regarding Trump-related headlines.


#Trump, tariff