🗞️ USD and JPY Both Weaken — Will the Trend Continue Overseas?
🎯 Today’s Theme
Tokyo saw a mixed market: USD weakness and JPY weakness happening simultaneously.
The key question now is whether this pattern continues in London and New York.
🇺🇸 Why the Dollar Weakened
① Trump’s State of the Union Address
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No new aggressive policy surprises
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Limited specifics on further tariff escalation
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Emphasis on diplomatic resolution regarding Iran
👉 Markets unwound part of the prior day’s USD strength.
② Strong Australian CPI
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AUD buying accelerated
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AUD/USD rose sharply
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Indirect pressure on the USD
🇯🇵 Why the Yen Weakened
① Reports of PM Takaichi’s reluctance toward rate hikes
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Early BOJ tightening expectations faded
② BOJ Board Appointments
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Toichiro Asada (perceived reflation-leaning)
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Ayano Sato (not strongly hawkish)
👉 Expectations of accelerated normalization declined → JPY selling
③ Global Equity Strength
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Korean equities surged
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Nikkei hit an intraday record high
👉 Risk-on sentiment → Yen selling
💱 Early London Session
Yen selling resumed.
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USD/JPY climbed to 156.66 (highest since Feb 9)
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Currently around 156.41
The 156 handle historically acts as resistance,
and upside momentum may slow near this zone.
📊 Overseas Market Focus
Few major U.S. data releases today:
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MBA Mortgage Applications only
👉 Thin macro calendar increases the likelihood of position adjustments.
🎙 Speakers & Events
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Barkin, Schmid, Musalem (Fed officials)
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U.S. crude inventory data
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$28B 2-year FRN auction
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$70B 5-year Treasury auction
📌 Watch U.S. yields closely.
📈 Equity Markets
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European and U.S. futures remain firm
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Nvidia earnings after the close
If equities continue higher,
JPY weakness may persist.
🔎 What to Watch
✔ Will Tokyo’s JPY weakness continue overseas?
✔ Can USD/JPY stabilize above 156?
✔ U.S. yield direction
✔ Equity market sentiment
🧭 Conclusion
The dollar is in mild correction mode,
but the yen remains weak.
The structure is “USD weak × JPY weak.”
In overseas markets:
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Some consolidation pressure is possible
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However, if equities stay strong, yen weakness may continue
The battle around the 156 level becomes the near-term pivot.
Momentum is not extreme,
but the market may remain yen-driven in the short run.
