📉 [Jittery USD/JPY & Geopolitical Spotlight] Trump and Putin Hold Two-Hour Phone Call

📉 [Jittery USD/JPY & Geopolitical Spotlight] Trump and Putin Hold Two-Hour Phone Call
📅 Tuesday, May 20, 2025

✅ Market Overview | JPY Sensitivity Amid U.S. Downgrade and U.S.-Japan Talks

• USD/JPY fluctuated between the 144 and mid-145 range. The dollar selling triggered by the U.S. credit downgrade paused in New York.
• During Tokyo hours, the market reacted sharply to headlines around the U.S.-Japan finance minister meeting.
• USD buying at the Tokyo fixing was followed by a wave of JPY buying and short-covering.
• AUD/JPY faced downward pressure after the RBA signaled a dovish rate-cut stance.
• Algorithmic trading has made markets highly sensitive to news headlines, amplifying the impact of individual reports.

📅 Key Events & Economic Indicators (upcoming)

→ Canada’s CPI is expected to slow to −0.2% MoM (prev. +0.3%).
Core inflation (Median: 2.9%, Trimmed Mean: 2.8%) is forecast to remain stable, but surprises could move the CAD.

🗣 Key Central Bank Speakers Today

• ECB: Wunsch (Belgium), Knot (Netherlands), Cipollone (Executive Board)
• BOE: Pill (Chief Economist)
• Fed: Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem, Kugler

→ Diverging tones in monetary policy may cause notable currency-specific moves.

📞 Geopolitical Watch: U.S.–Russia Presidential Call

• On May 19, Presidents Trump and Putin held a two-hour phone call.
• Trump declared on Truth Social that "immediate ceasefire talks" would begin.
  → This could mark a turning point in the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
• Markets responded positively, with U.S. equities rebounding and Bitcoin (BTC) rising alongside.

🎯 Strategy Summary | Tuesday, May 20, 2025

📌 Summary

USD/JPY remains highly volatile amid an overload of market-moving events—headline-driven swings are likely.
AUD and CAD are moving in sync with policy tone and upcoming data.
GOLD and BTC remain in focus, benefiting from geopolitical tension and USD softness.