🗓️ Dollar Holds Firm as Markets Brace for Trump Tariff Announcement

Dollar Holds Firm as Markets Brace for Trump Tariff Announcement

🎯 Markets Stay Tense Ahead of July 9 Tariff Notice

The FX market kicked off Monday with the dollar holding firm, buoyed by strong U.S. jobs data from last Friday.
While no major economic releases are expected today, tension is rising ahead of the July 9 tariff notice from former President Trump.

🇯🇵 Tokyo Session: Soft Stocks, Dollar Gains

Tokyo equities started the day slightly weaker. Key drivers include:

• Approaching July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs from the Trump camp

• U.S. 10-year yields holding high near 4.32–4.33%

• Strong NFP last week signaling resilience in the U.S. economy

In FX, USD/JPY briefly recovered into the 144 zone as buyers stepped in after Friday’s dip.
The DXY hovers near 97.13, with the 10-day moving average at 97.205 serving as a key technical pivot.

📝 Trump Tariffs: July 9 Notice → August 1 Implementation?

Reports suggest Trump is preparing tariff-related letters for around 15 countries.

• Notice Date: July 9

• Implementation: Expected August 1

• Content: Choose between trade deals or unilateral tariffs

• Tactic: A possible revival of "TACO" (Tactical Agreement for Conditional Opt-out) strategy

If Japan is on the recipient list or if proposed tariff rates are high, USD/JPY may be especially vulnerable.
Watch for risk-off yen buying on negative headlines.

📆 Today’s Key Events & Remarks

📉 Economic Data

• Eurozone Retail Sales (May):
  Forecasts: -0.6% MoM / +1.4% YoY — both considered weak

🗣️ Key Speakers & Meetings

• Bundesbank President Nagel: Speech

• Austrian Central Bank Governor Holzmann: Attending meeting

• Eurozone Finance Ministers Meeting: Currency policy discussions

• BRICS Summit continues: Watch for remarks from India, China, and South Africa

💡 Today’s Key Market Themes

✅ USD/JPY: Range-bound around 144 with dip buying and sell-the-rally behavior
✅ Whether Japan is targeted in tariff plans will drive market sentiment
✅ DXY’s position above 97.20 is key for short-term trend
✅ For EUR-related pairs, focus on retail sales and ECB member remarks

⚠️ Caution: Calm Before the Storm?

Today’s quiet price action may not last. A single headline about tariffs could trigger high volatility.
Keep positions light and stay ready to react to fast-breaking news.

🔍 Pair-by-Pair Strategy & Technical Summary

💵 USD/JPY | Range-Bound, Awaiting News

Fundamentals:

• Strong NFP → Reduced rate cut expectations → Supports USD

• Tariff notice targeting Japan would be yen-positive

Technical:

• Support: 143.50 (20 SMA)

• Resistance: 144.80 (June swing high)

• RSI: 58 (slightly bullish)

Strategy Notes:

• Resistance likely near 144.80–145.00

• Break below 143.50 could lead to deeper correction

• Option short straddles within narrow range may work while awaiting news

💶 EUR/USD | Euro Rally Pauses; Focus on ECB Comments

Fundamentals:

• Weak retail sales could cap further euro gains

• ECB Vice President warned that “above 1.20 is complex” — market is sensitive to such remarks

Technical:

• Support: 1.0770 (50-day MA), 1.0720 (200-day MA)

• Resistance: 1.0850 (recent high)

• RSI: 55 (slightly bullish)

Strategy Notes:

• Expect sell pressure above 1.08

• If retail sales disappoint, look for pullback to mid-1.07

• Buy-the-dip approach near 1.0730–1.0750 may be effective post-event

💷 GBP/JPY | BOE Cut Expectations and Political Risks Weigh

Fundamentals:

• Welfare reform rollback → Rising UK fiscal concerns → Gilts & GBP under pressure

• Markets rapidly pricing in August BOE rate cut

Technical:

• Support: 183.50 (recent low), 182.70 (50-day MA)

• Resistance: 185.60 (short-term peak)

• RSI: 44 (slightly bearish)

Strategy Notes:

• Upside limited; rallies offer shorting opportunities

• Stay alert to political headlines

• Break below 183.00 may trigger stops and push lower

🇨🇦 CAD/JPY | Driven by Oil & U.S.–Canada Trade Talks

Fundamentals:

• Canada’s digital tax withdrawal → May improve U.S. ties

• Oil rebound → CAD support

Technical:

• Support: 104.00

• Resistance: 105.30 (June high)

• RSI: 62 (bullish)

Strategy Notes:

• Oil strength + trade progress = buy dips near 104

• Failure in trade talks or oil reversal → Watch for break below 104

🇦🇺 AUD/JPY | RBA Cut Priced In, Awaiting Details

Fundamentals:

• RBA fully priced to cut by 0.25%

• If inflation outlook remains firm → “Hawkish cut” could lift AUD

Technical:

• Support: 95.20 (5-day MA), 94.80 (20-day MA)

• Resistance: 96.50 (June high)

• RSI: 59 (bullish, not overheated)

Strategy Notes:

• Watch for post-RBA “buy the rumor, sell the fact” dynamic

• Be prepared for possible dip below 95.00

✅ Today’s Highlights & Strategy Table