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🗞️ Lower House Election Passed; Yen Enters Mild Correction Phase — Market Watches Overseas Reaction

9 2月 2026, 10:21
Masayuki Sakamoto
Masayuki Sakamoto
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🗞️ Lower House Election Passed; Yen Enters Mild Correction Phase — Market Watches Overseas Reaction

■ Japan Politics: Ruling Coalition Scores a Landslide Victory

In last weekend’s Lower House election, the Liberal Democratic Party secured a landslide win, capturing a two-thirds supermajority (315 seats) on its own. Policy cooperation with Ishin is set to continue, leaving the ruling bloc in a solid position to steer policy going forward.

In response, equities opened the week with a classic post-election rally, with the Nikkei 225 jumping more than 3,000 points intraday, marking another all-time high.

■ FX: Yen Weakness Pauses, Market Shifts Into Correction Mode

In the FX market:

  • USD/JPY climbed into the upper-157s

  • It then pulled back to the low-156s, following:

    • Official comments warning against excessive yen weakness

    • Position adjustments amid intervention vigilance

  • The pair is now seeing two-way trading in the 156 range

Because expectations of a 300+ seat victory had already been widely circulated last week, the election outcome is viewed as largely priced in.

Going forward, market dynamics are likely to shift toward:

Cautious yen selling under constant intervention awareness

The immediate focus will be on how London and other overseas investors respond.

■ This Week’s Focus: Attention Gradually Shifts to the U.S. Economy

With Japan’s political event now out of the way, market attention is turning increasingly toward the U.S.

  • Wednesday: U.S. employment data

  • Friday: U.S. CPI

Both are major releases, and FX markets are likely to be driven primarily by U.S. economic indicators in the days ahead.

■ China-Related Reports Emerge as a Dollar-Negative Factor

Recent reports citing sources indicate that:

Chinese authorities are encouraging banks to curb holdings of U.S. Treasuries

This has triggered:

  • U.S. Treasury selling → dollar selling

Market reaction so far:

  • U.S. 10-year yield: 4.22% → briefly toward 4.25%

  • Dollar Index: 97.76 → down to 97.29

Whether this develops into a sustained theme remains to be seen and warrants close monitoring.

■ London Session Moves (Latest)

Early London trading has been characterized by broad dollar selling.

  • EUR/USD: rose from the 1.1830s to the 1.1850s

  • USD/JPY: remained heavy, slipping below 156.50

  • Dollar Index: extended its decline from late last week
    (still above the 10-day moving average near 97.14)

Following the pullback in USD/JPY during Tokyo hours, euro-led dollar selling has added further pressure during the London session.

■ Today’s Data & Events

Economic Data

  • Mexico CPI (January)

  • New York Fed Inflation Expectations (January)

Market impact is expected to be limited.

Speeches / Events

  • ECB: President Lagarde, Chief Economist Lane

  • Fed: Governor Waller, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, among others

  • A packed schedule of remarks from European central bank officials

■ Summary

  • The Lower House election has passed smoothly; yen-weakness drivers have largely run their course

  • USD/JPY is consolidating in the 156 range

  • Markets remain alert to intervention risks while awaiting overseas investor reaction

  • U.S. employment data and CPI are set to take center stage next


#CPI, Employment, U.S., data