NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 21.12 - 28.12: Ranging Bearish With Symmetrical Triangle Pattern Broken To Downward With .7608 Key Support
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newdigital, 2014.12.19 19:27
Forex Weekly Outlook December 22-26 (based on forexcrunch article)GDP data from Canada and the US, US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, Unemployment claims, Haruhiko Kuroda’s speech are the major topics in Forex calendar. heck out these events on our weekly outlook.
Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen switched the phrase “considerable time” with the word “patience” in referral to rate hikes, at the FOMC press conference. The move was made to calm markets awaiting sharp policy shifts. Three Fed officials registered their dissent expressing discomfort with the Fed’s message. The Jobless claims came out better than expected with a drop to 289K, reaffirming US labor market’s strength. Philly Fed Manufacturing index came below expectations reaching 24.5 following the steep rise in November, still maintaining a positive score. New orders plunged from 35.7 to 15.7 and employment down from 22.4 to 7.2 points. Will the US economy continue to strengthen in 2015?
- Canadian GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. Canada’s economy expanded 0.4% in October after higher oil, gas and mining extraction, as well as manufacturing boosted growth. October’s reading was preceded by a 0.1% contraction in August. Since Canada is a major oil exporter, the Bank of Canada estimates that the slide in oil prices will reduce Canadian economic growth by 1/3 percentage points, somewhere between 2% and 2.5% in 2015. Poloz is also worried by household imbalances risking financial stability, leaving the door open for additional guidance in the future. Markets expect Canadian GDP to rise 0.1% in November.
- US Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 13:30. U.S. durable goods orders picked up in October beating expectations for a 0.4% fall. New orders rose by 0.4%, reaching $243.8 billion. Meanwhile, demand for manufactured goods, excluding transportation dropped 0.9% to $167.6 billion in October, after a 0.1% rise in the prior month. Analysts believe the decline suggests that business capital spending is weakening in Q4.The Fed expects GDP to slow to 2.5% in the fourth quarter. Long lasting product orders are expected to surge by 3%. While core orders are predicted to 3edge up 1.1%.
- US GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. On The second estimate of real gross domestic product for the third quarter of 2014 showed an annual rate increase of 3.9%, weaker than the 4.6% gain posted in the second quarter. However, this forecast was upwardly revised from the advance estimate of 3.5% released in October. Personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed income investment increased more than expected, but export growth was slower than previously thought. The final GDP release for the third quarter is expected to reach 4.3%.
- New Home Sales: Tuesday, 15:00. Sales of new U.S. homes rose modestly in October, following a pickup in activity in the Midwest. New home sales increased 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000. Economists expected a higher figure of 471,000. Sales of existing homes rose 1.5% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.26 million, adding another positive sign that the housing market is recovering. Analysts exdpect new home sales to reach 461,000 in November.
- US Unemployment Claims: Wednesday, 13:30. Fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, indicating increasing confidence among employers. The weekly unemployment claims dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 289,000, the lowest level since late October. The four-week average dropped 750 to 298,750. In the first 11 months of this year, employers have added 2.65 million jobs, posting the best hiring since 1999. The number of new claims is expected to reach 291,000 this week.
- Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Thursday, 3:45. BOE Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks in Tokyo. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated the bank will meet its 2% inflation target and continue to increasing base money, or cash and deposits at the bank, at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen ($674 billion). Kuroda said Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately after the tax hike effect subsides.
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newdigital, 2014.12.23 06:19
2014-12-22 21:45 GMT (or 23:45 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Trade Balance]- past data is -911M
- forecast data is -550M
- actual data is -213M according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers
==========
New Zealand November Trade Deficit NZ$213 Million
New Zealand posted a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$213 million in
November, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday - representing 5.3
percent of exports.
The headline figure beat forecasts for a shortfall of 575 million following the NZ$908 million deficit in October.
Exports dipped 9.5 percent on year to NZ$4.02 billion - missing
forecasts for NZ$4.03 billion, which would have been roughly unchanged
from the previous month.
Dairy exports drove the fall, down 27 percent, with the quantity down
3.1 percent. The fall in dairy reflects the record high levels exported,
mainly to China, in November 2013. A 20 percent rise in meat exports
partially offset the fall, led by a price-driven rise in frozen beef.
"The fall in export values reflects a return from the high values late
last year, led by China," international statistics manager Jason
Attewell said. "The trend for exports to China is 42 percent lower than
the series peak in December 2013, and is now at similar levels to 2012."
Imports fell an annual 1.3 percent to NZ$4.24 billion versus
expectations for NZ$4.58 billion and down from NZ$4.94 billion a month
earlier.
Capital goods (aircraft and helicopters) led the fall.
Year to date, New Zealand has a trade deficit of NZ$453 million -
topping expectations for a deficit of NZ$774 million following the
NZ$107 million annual deficit in the previous month.
This is the smallest November deficit since 2010, the bureau said.
Record high exports late last year resulted in the first trade surplus
for a November month (NZ$153 million) since 1991.
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NZDUSD M5: 9 pips price movement by NZD - Trade Balance news event
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Something Interesting in Financial Video December 2014
newdigital, 2014.12.24 15:18
Strategy Video: A Lesson for 2015 from Past Financial Crises (based on dailyfx article)
- Before financial market crises unfolder there is a steady erosion of the system's structure
- In 2008, an appetite for leverage and need for return led to implosion triggered by Bear Stearns
- The 1998 failure of Long Term Capital Management offers a similar story to the conditions we face today
Financial crises often explode from periods of exceptional market
performance and their appearance is usually catches the investing
community off guard. Yet, as dramatic as the market reactions may be;
these disruptive periods of rebalancing are not so obscure when the
underlying structural circumstances of the financial system are
accounted for. Back in 2008, the Great Financial Crisis was built upon
an appetite for excessive return and leverage through high finance. It
was, however, subprime and Bear Stearns' collapse that receives the
blame. Further back, 1998 draws a strong corollary to today's market
with an Asian financial crisis and Russian default leading to the
dramatic failure of Long Term Capital Management. Heading into 2015, we
have: excessive leverage; exposure to exceptionally risky assets; low
returns; a dependency on low volatility; and growing investor doubt. We
discuss the importance of appreciating a big-picture structural risk
heading into 2015.
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newdigital, 2014.12.26 19:33
Forex Weekly Outlook Dec 29- Jan 2 ( based on forexcrunch article)We end 2014 with US CB Consumer Confidence and Unemployment Claims
and open 2015 with US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Join our weekly outlook
with the main market movers to impact Forex trading. Happy 2015!
Last week, the final revision to US GDP in Q3 came out better than
expected, crossing the 4% growth rate for the second consecutive
quarter. US economy expanded 5% between July and September, beating the
preliminary estimate of 3.9% and the median forecast of 4.3%. The
strong expansion indicates the US economy will close 2014 on a strong
note. More positive data was released from the US labor market with a
continued decline in the number of initial unemployment claims, noting
the US job market continues to improve with increased hiring and fewer
dismissals. Will the US economy continue to expand in 2015?
- US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. U.S. consumer confidence declined in November to a five month low of 88.7 after posting 94.5 in October. Consumer’s confidence regarding current-business conditions and short-term outlook dropped considerably. Analysts expected confidence to rise to 95.9. Economists expect consumer sentiment will reach 94.6 in December.
- US Unemployment Claims: Wednesday, 13:30. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits declined last week to its lowest level since early November, indicating the job market continues to demonstrate strength. Initial jobless claims dropped by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 280,000. Economists expected claims to reach 290,000. The less volatile four-week moving average fell 8,500 to 290,250 indicating companies seek to hold on to their workers and hire new ones. The number of weekly claims is expected to reach 287,000 this week.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. The U.S. manufacturing sector lost momentum in November, reaching 58.7 after a 59 points reading in the prior month. Economists expected a lower figure of 57.9. New Orders Index increased to 66, from October’s reading of 65.8; the Production Index reached 64.4%, down from the previous reading of 64.8; and the Employment Index declined to 54.9, compared to the precious reading of 55.5. Lower energy prices gave a boost to the manufacturing sector, increasing consumer’s demand and the continued strength of the Us labor market also contributes to growth. Manufacturing PMI is forested to reach 57.6 this time.
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D1 price is on primary bearish with secondary ranging:
W1 price is on bearish with secondary flat.
MN price is on bearish breakdown with secondary ranging market condition - price came to inside Ichimoku cloud/kumo on close W1 bar.
If D1 price will break 0.7608 support level so the primary bearish breadown will be continuing
If D1 price will break 0.7870 resistance level so D1 market will be reversed to the ranging bullish
If not so we may see the ranging within bearish market condition.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on NZDUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-12-22 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Existing Home Sales]
2014-12-22 21:45 GMT (or 23:45 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Trade Balance]
2014-12-23 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - GDP]
2014-12-23 15:00 GMT (or 17:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - New Home Sales]
2014-12-24 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Claims]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on NZDUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bearish
TREND : ranging