2013-03-25 14:00 GMT (or 15:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
Spain's Consumer Prices Fall For First Time In 5 Months
Spain's consumer prices declined for the first time in five months
in March, flash estimates from the statistical office INE showed Friday.
Consumer prices dropped 0.2 percent year-on-year in March, after
staying flat in the prior month. Prices were forecast to remain
unchanged as seen in February.
The harmonized index of consumer prices also fell 0.2 percent annually in March, following a 0.1 percent rise in February.
Month-on-month, consumer prices gained 0.2 percent in February, data showed.
2013-03-28 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Current Account]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
U.K. Q4 GDP Grows 0.7% As Initially Estimated
U.K.'s economic growth came in line with preliminary estimate at the
end of 2013, data from the Office for National Statistics showed
Gross domestic product rose 0.7 percent sequentially in
the fourth quarter, unrevised from the second estimate published on
February 26. Year-on-year, GDP gained 2.7 percent, also as previous
At the same time, economic growth for 2013 was revised down to 1.7 percent from 1.8 percent.
report from the ONS said services output grew 3.2 percent in January
from last year as all main components of the services industries
expanded. From December, output advanced 0.4 percent.
In the fourth quarter, business
investment rose by an estimated GBP 0.8 billion compared with the
previous quarter, in line with previous estimate. The annual growth was
revised to 8.7 percent from 8.5 percent, ONS said in a separate report.
current account deficit was GBP 22.4 billion in the fourth quarter,
down from a revised deficit of GBP 22.8 billion in the prior quarter.
The deficit in fourth quarter equated to 5.4 percent of GDP at current
market price, the statistical office reported.
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Forex Market Update
mapq, 2014.03.28 13:19
Forex Market Update 28Mar14
This morning, the greenback is trading mostly lower against most of the major currencies. Earlier today, the Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans, citing current low inflation and high unemployment rate in the US economy, projected the Fed to keep its interest rates at rock bottom until late 2015.
The EUR pared some of its initial losses after data showed that economic sentiment indicator in the Euro-zone rose more than expected in March to reach its highest level since July 2011.
The GBP initially came under pressure after the UK’s current account deficit barely narrowed in the fourth quarter from the record wide gap in the third quarter. However, the GBP reversed its losses after data showed that GDP came in line with market estimates for the fourth quarter.
The greenback traded mixed in the New York session yesterday, against the key currencies, amid a mixed batch of economic releases in the US economy. Data showed that US GDP rose faster than the preliminary estimate in the fourth quarter while the jobless claims unexpectedly came in at a four-month low reading last week. However, pending home sales in the US fell for an eighth consecutive month in February.
Separately, the Cleveland Fed President, Sandra Pianalto projected an optimistic outlook for the US economy but at the same time also opined that the economy is still short of the Fed’s employment and inflation goal.
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the EUR is trading at 1.3724 against the USD, 0.13% lower from the New York close, after data revealed that Spanish retail sales disappointed in February and consumer prices registered its first decline since October 2009. Meanwhile, the Euro-zone’s economic sentiment indicator and consumer confidence both showed an improvement in March. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.3753 and a low of 1.3714. Yesterday, the EUR traded 0.14% lower against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 1.3742.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.3693 and first resistance at 1.3768.
At 9:40 GMT, the GBP is trading at 1.6611 against the USD, tad higher from the New York close, after data showed that UK’s fourth-quarter GDP rose 2.7% (YoY) in line with market estimates while the Gfk consumer confidence in the UK improved to a level best seen since August 2007 in March. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.6632 and a low of 1.6607. Yesterday, the British Pound traded 0.09% lower versus the Dollar in the New York session, and closed at 1.6608.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.6589 and first resistance at 1.6640.
The USD is trading at 102.30 against the JPY at 9:40 GMT this morning, 0.07% higher from the New York close. Data released overnight showed that, Japan’s annual national CPI rose 1.5% in February while unemployment rate declined to 3.6% last month. Separately, retail sales in Japan also rose more than market expectation in February. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 102.33 and a low of 102.11. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.07% lower against the JPY, and closed at 102.22.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 102.04 and first resistance at 102.50.
This morning at 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 0.8884 against the Swiss Franc, 0.18% higher from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.8900 and a low of 0.8866. In the New York session yesterday, the USD traded 0.10% higher against the CHF, and closed at 0.8868. Late Thursday, SNB’s Fritz Zurbruegg indicated that the central bank is ready to use variety of measures, including a negative interest rate to defend its cap on the Swiss franc.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.8850 and first resistance at 0.8909.
At 9:40 GMT, the USD is trading at 1.1014 against the CAD, 0.18% lower from the New York close. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 1.1036 and a low of 1.1005. Yesterday, the USD traded 0.58% lower against the CAD in the New York session, and closed at 1.1034.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 1.0973 and first resistance at 1.1081.
The AUD is trading at 0.9264 against the USD, at 9:40 GMT this morning, marginally higher from the New York close, benefited from China's Premier, Li Keqiang supportive comments on the growth-outlook of the Chinese economy. During the session, the pair traded at a high of 0.9297 and a low of 0.9259. AUD traded 0.29% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at 0.9260.
The pair is expected to find its first support at 0.9227 and first resistance at 0.9299.
At 9:40 GMT, Gold is trading at $1297.15 per ounce, 0.46% higher from the New York close. This morning, Gold traded at a high of $1299.02 and a low of $1290.92 per ounce. In the New York session yesterday, the yellow metal traded 0.36% lower, and closed at $1291.17, on the back of a strong US Dollar. Meanwhile, one of the leading broking houses trimmed its 2014 average price for spot gold by 8% to $1,225 an ounce.
Gold has its first support at $1290.86 and first resistance at $1301.80.
Silver is trading at $19.84 per ounce, 0.62% higher from the New York close, at 9:40 GMT this morning. This morning, Silver traded at a high of $19.93 and a low of $19.72. Silver traded 0.17% higher against the USD in the New York session, and closed at $19.72. A leading broker cut its 2014 spot silver price forecast by 5% to $19.40.
Silver has its first support at $19.65 and first resistance at $19.98.
At 9:40 GMT, Oil is trading at $101.74 per barrel, 0.50% higher from the New York close, amid lingering concerns on the supply outlook of the commodity. This morning, Oil traded at a high of $101.76 and a low of $101.18. Yesterday, Oil traded 0.09% higher in the New York session, and closed at $101.25, amid speculation that a strong domestic GDP data could spur demand for crude oil in the US.
It has its first support at $100.63 and first resistance at $102.30.
UK Gfk consumer confidence improved more than anticipated in March
The GfK consumer confidence index in UK improved to a level of -5.0 in March, more than market forecasts and compared to a level of -7.0 recorded in the previous month.
UK economy expanded in line with the preliminary estimate in Q4 2013
On an annual basis, the final GDP in UK rose 2.7% in the Q4 2013, in line with preliminary estimate, following a 1.9% rise recorded in the previous quarter. Additionally, on a quarterly basis, final total business investment in the UK rose 2.4% in the Q4 2013, in line with preliminary estimate, following an increase of 2.0% recorded in the preceding quarter.
UK current account deficit narrowed in Q4 2013
The National Statistics has reported that UK’s current account deficit narrowed to £22.4 billion in Q4 2013, less than market estimates and compared to a revised deficit of £22.8 billion recorded in the previous quarter.
Industrial confidence in the Euro-zone improved unexpectedly in March
The industrial confidence index in the Euro-zone rose to a level of -3.3 in March, contradicting market estimates for the index to remain unchanged at previous month’s revised reading of -3.5. Meanwhile, the economic sentiment indicator in the Euro-zone rose to a level of 102.4 in March, compared to reading of 101.2 reported in the previous month. Additionally, the final consumer confidence in the Euro-zone came in unchanged at previous month’s revised reading of -9.3 in March.
Spain’s CPI unexpectedly fell in March
On an annual basis, the preliminary consumer price index (CPI) in Spain fell 0.2% in March, compared to a flat change recorded in the previous month. Market had expected the index to remain steady in March. Meanwhile, on a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales in Spain dropped 0.5% in February on a yearly basis, in line with market expectations and following a rise of 0.5% recorded in the preceding month.
Swiss economy likely to witness steady growth until the next year, indicated KOF Institute spring economic forecast
According to KOF Institute spring economic forecast 2014, the Swiss economy is anticipated to grow steadily until the end of next year. The report indicated that the gross domestic product of Switzerland is expected to rise 2.0% in 2014 and 2.1% in 2015.
No rise in interest rate likely until second half of 2015, indicated Fed’s Evans
The Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President, Charles Evans, opined that the US Fed would have to maintain interest rates at the present record low levels until late 2015, given the low inflation and still-high unemployment rate in the US.
Economists Divided over Effect of Venezuela’s New Foreign Trading System
The Venezuelan government this week introduced a new foreign exchange
system as it seeks to curb black market for the greenback, which is
being blamed for high inflation and food shortages in the Latin American
While both conservative and liberal economists are in favor of this
move, they are divided on whether it will help revive the oil-rich
While Venezuelan leaders used brutal force against anti-government
protests last February, it has also rolled out measures to address a key
issue protesters wanted fixed- repair the troubled economy. It launched
Sicad II, a market-based exchange system that facilitates sale of
dollars at between eight to ten times the official rate of 6.3 bolivars a
Though Venezuela has huge oil reserves, the tightly-controlled exchange
rate has partly contributed to shortage of essential items and
hyperinflation. According to Mark Weisbrot, who works with Center for
Economic and Policy Research, Sicad II should help get the economy back
on the path to recovery by combating the black market for the U.S.
“You had kind of a bubble in the black market for the dollar, people
buying dollars because they thought it was a one-way bet and it was
always going to, the dollar value would always go up, and now that is
not going to be the case," said Weisbrot, according to the Voice of
While Venezuela’s government insists the new rate is for buying
non-basic goods, the local opposition views the system as a form of
On the day the Sicad II was launched, the rate of a dollar in the black
market plunged from 90 to close at 50 bolivars a dollar. However, the
rate has since risen, as locals still lack an optimistic view of the
Something Interesting to Read March 2014
newdigital, 2014.03.29 08:50
Something Interesting in Financial Video November 2013
newdigital, 2013.11.13 07:52
Video Tutorial on How To Trade Descending Triangle Chart Patterns
Earlier this month, famed dealmaker Warren Buffett warned investors to stay away from Bitcoin,
calling it “a mirage,” saying that, while it may be a better way of
transmitting money, the “idea that it has some huge intrinsic value is
just a joke.” While interviewing Bitcoin investor Marc Andreessen at a CoinSummit “fireside chat” (minus the fire) Tuesday, I asked him to respond to Buffett. He supplied the missing flames.
“The historical track record of old white men crapping on new
technology they don’t understand is at, I think, 100%,” said venture
capitalist (and younger white man) Marc Andreessen. Fellow Andreessen
Horowitz partner Balaji Srinivasan quipped that Bitcoin has outperformed
Buffett’s “Berkshire Hathaway by a lot in the last year.” (42 minute mark)
Andreessen’s “skewering” of Buffett has gotten lots of news coverage,
but the answers were actually rather glib. Lots of burn, but not much
kindle. So I followed up with Andreessen, whose firm has made Bitcoin
plays including a $25 million investment in Bitcoin wallet and merchant processing service Coinbase, for a more substantive response to Buffett’s Bitcoin criticism. Here’s Buffett’s full Bitcoin takedown:
“Stay away. Bitcoin is a mirage. It’s a method of
transmitting money. It’s a very effective way of transmitting money and
you can do it anonymously and all that. A check is a way of transmitting
money, too. Are checks worth a whole lot of money just because they can
transmit money? Are money orders? You can transmit money by money
orders. People do it. I hope bitcoin becomes a better way of doing it,
but you can replicate it a bunch of different ways and it will be. The
idea that it has some huge intrinsic value is just a joke in my view.”
Buffett says Bitcoin is a very fast anonymous money order. Companies
that send money orders make money off of them, so investing in the
companies that control the money orders makes sense (the Coinbases and
Bitpays of the world) but the money orders themselves (i.e. Bitcoins)
aren’t worth buying as an investment. That’s a valid critique. During
our chat, Andreessen and Srinivasan said Bitcoin is the “next Internet.”
People often compare it to Internet protocols that enabled the
development of email and the World Wide Web as we know it. But protocols
and the “Internet” don’t make money; the valuable systems built on top
of them do. Buffett is essentially saying Bitcoin is a protocol like
TCP/IP that isn’t a money maker, and is encouraging investors not to
drop $600 bucks/coin (even if unlike TCP/IP, the supply of Bitcoin is limited).
“This is a standard trope of technology criticism by people who don’t
understand technology,” says Andreessen by email. “‘Yes, sure, it’s
great technology, but it won’t be useful or valuable in the way that
those crazy nerds think it will be useful or valuable.’ I’ve heard it my
whole life applied to every new important technology. It’s fake
sophistication — it sounds nuanced but it’s not.”
Andreesen says the argument “completely misses the logic flow of how
Bitcoin works.” When I suggested that the actual value of “a bitcoin” is
arbitrary, and that more important than the value is the fact that it’s
fluid, and easily converted to “real money,” he objected.
“A value of a BTC is not arbitrary, in fact it’s the opposite of
arbitrary,” he says. “It equals the value of a single slot in a finite
sized public cryptographic ledger through which value can move. The
total Bitcoin ledger has value corresponding to the volume and velocity
of transactions that will run through it in the future; by extension,
each slot in the ledger has fractional value determined by the total
number of slots (which, in Bitcoin’s case, are limited to 11 million
today and 21 million ever).”
“So saying what Warren is saying is like saying ‘a car is great
technology but it’ll never actually get anyone from point A to point B,”
he continued. “Bitcoin is great technology BECAUSE it lets people get
value from point A to point B through the public ledger; that functional
use creates the value of the ledger, and a single BTC has a
corresponding fractional value of the ledger.”
Andreessen then broke out economic theory, saying that the velocity of money will overcome the effect of Bitcoin hoarders, and that hoarders will essentially lead to more valuable Bitcoin.
“The market cap of the ledger needs to be high enough to accommodate
all of the value that wants to PASS THROUGH it in any period of time
(volume & velocity of value passing through),” Andreessen wrote. “So
then, the intrinsic value of a BTC is emergent from the functional
value of the ledger as a way to exchange value (or, more accurately,
emergent from the collective forecast of the future volume &
velocity of value that will pass through the ledger).”
So Buffett and Andreessen’s disagreement will remain unresolved. Only a time traveler could declare the victor.
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