EURUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
EURUSD found a top just shy of a trendline confluence. The market is in
a range (within a range within a range). Support is estimated at
1.3527/55 and resistance is seen at 1.3637 now. Stronger resistance is
Bigger picture, the response in late December from the trendline that
extends off of the 2008 and 2011 highs does suggest that the market may
have made an important top BUT the failed breakdown in late January /
early February hints at a bottoming process. Play the range.
LEVELS: 1.3480 1.35271.3576 | 1.3637 1.3672 1.3699
Into The Belly Of Beijing With Bank Of China (based on Forbes article)
Bank of China is a reliable dividend-payer, kicking out a payment every
year in late May or early June. In May 2013, the payout was $0.59, which
is good for a yield of 5.6%.
Beijing-based Bank of China (BACHY) is one of the biggest commercial and
retail banks in China and around the world, operating 10,664 branches
in mainland China and 613 locations in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and
if actual < forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
Australia Unemployment Rate 6.0% In January
Australia posted a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 6.0
percent in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on
That missed forecasts for 5.9 percent - which would have
been unchanged from the December reading after it was revised up from
The Australian economy
lost 3,700 jobs to 11,459,500 in January versus expectations for an
increase of 15,000 following the loss of 22,600 jobs in the previous
Full-time employment decreased 7,100 to 7,953,000 and part-time employment increased 3,400 to 3,506,500.
Bitcoin At The Wrong End Of A Gun (based on Forbes article)
Many may not want to hear this, but government intrusion may be the only way to save crypto-currencies.
Anarchists, minarchists and libertarians all over the world have looked
at Bitcoin and seen in its promise an escape from the tyranny of
government and its overarching regulation.
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
U.S. Retail Sales Show Unexpected Drop In January
With auto sales showing another notable decrease, the Commerce
Department released a report on Thursday showing an unexpected drop in
U.S. retail sales in the month of January.
The report said retail
sales dropped by 0.4 percent in January following a revised 0.1 percent
decrease in December. Economists had expected sales to come in unchanged
compared to the 0.2 percent increase originally reported for the
3 Types of Forex Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
Forex fundamental centers mostly around the currency’s interest rate.
Other fundamental factors are included such as Gross Domestic Product,
inflation, manufacturing, economic growth activity. However, whether
those other fundamental releases are good or bad is of less importance
than how those releases affect that country’s interest rate.
As you review the fundamental releases, keep in mind how it might affect
the future movement of the interest rates. When investors are in a risk
seeking mode, money follows yield and higher rates could mean more
investment. When investors are in a risk adverse mentality, then money
leaves yield for safe haven currencies.
Forex technical analysis involves looking at patterns in price history
to determine the higher probability time and place to enter and exit a
trade. As a result, forex technical analysis is one of the most widely
used types of analysis.
Since FX is one of the largest and most liquid markets, the movements on
a chart from the price action generally gives clues about hidden levels
of supply and demand. Other patterned behavior such as which currencies
are trending the strongest can be obtained by reviewing the price
Other technical studies can be conducted through the use of indicators.
Many traders prefer using indicators because the signals are easy to
read and it makes forex trading simple.
Forex sentiment is another widely popular form of analysis. When you see
sentiment overwhelmingly positioned to one direction that means the
vast majority of traders are already committed to that position.
Since we know there is a large pool of traders who have already BOUGHT,
then these buyers become a future supply of sellers. We know that
because eventually, they are going to want to close out the trade. That
makes the EUR to USD vulnerable to a sharp pull back if these buyers
turn around and sell to close out there trades.
A disappointing growth report may
put increased pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to further
embark on its easing cycle amid the threat for disinflation, and the
single currency may continue to carve a series of lower highs paired
with lower lows amid the protracted recovery in the monetary union.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish Euro Trade: German 4Q GDP Misses Market Forecast
Potential Price Targets For The Release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
China CPI Climbs 2.5% On Year In January
Consumer prices in China were up 2.5 percent on year in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
That was unchanged from the December reading, and it exceeded forecasts for 2.4 percent.
German, France Q4 GDP Growth Exceeds Expectations
German and French economic growth at the end of 2013 exceeded
expectations, underpinned by investment and foreign demand, official
figures revealed Friday. The data bodes well for the larger euro
currency bloc that is struggling to see a stable expansion.
to preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office, German
economic growth accelerated marginally to 0.4 percent in the fourth
quarter from a quarter ago. The growth exceeded expectations for 0.3
Elsewhere, the French economy
expanded 0.3 percent sequentially in the fourth quarter after
stagnating in the third quarter. The growth figure was marginally above
the 0.3 percent forecast by economists. The third quarter GDP figure was
upgraded from 0.1 percent fall.
The report revealed that
positive contributions to German GDP were came mainly from foreign
trade. The increase in exports of goods and services was substantially
higher than that of imports.
U.S. Industrial Production Shows Unexpected Drop In January
With severe weather curtailing manufacturing production in some
regions of the country, the Federal Reserve released a report on Friday
showing that U.S. industrial production unexpectedly decreased in the
month of January.
The report said industrial production fell by
0.3 percent in January after rising by 0.3 percent in December. The
pullback came as a surprise to economists, who had expected production
to increase by another 0.3 percent.