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EURUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
EURUSD found a top just shy of a trendline confluence. The market is in a range (within a range within a range). Support is estimated at 1.3527/55 and resistance is seen at 1.3637 now. Stronger resistance is probably 1.3745.
Bigger picture, the response in late December from the trendline that extends off of the 2008 and 2011 highs does suggest that the market may have made an important top BUT the failed breakdown in late January / early February hints at a bottoming process. Play the range.
LEVELS: 1.3480 1.35271.3576 | 1.3637 1.3672 1.3699
Into The Belly Of Beijing With Bank Of China (based on Forbes article)
Bank of China is a reliable dividend-payer, kicking out a payment every year in late May or early June. In May 2013, the payout was $0.59, which is good for a yield of 5.6%.
Beijing-based Bank of China (BACHY) is one of the biggest commercial and retail banks in China and around the world, operating 10,664 branches in mainland China and 613 locations in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and internationally.
if actual < forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
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Australia Unemployment Rate 6.0% In January
Australia posted a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 6.0 percent in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.
That missed forecasts for 5.9 percent - which would have been unchanged from the December reading after it was revised up from 5.8 percent.
The Australian economy lost 3,700 jobs to 11,459,500 in January versus expectations for an increase of 15,000 following the loss of 22,600 jobs in the previous month.
Full-time employment decreased 7,100 to 7,953,000 and part-time employment increased 3,400 to 3,506,500.
Bitcoin At The Wrong End Of A Gun (based on Forbes article)
Many may not want to hear this, but government intrusion may be the only way to save crypto-currencies.
Anarchists, minarchists and libertarians all over the world have looked at Bitcoin and seen in its promise an escape from the tyranny of government and its overarching regulation.
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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U.S. Retail Sales Show Unexpected Drop In January
With auto sales showing another notable decrease, the Commerce Department released a report on Thursday showing an unexpected drop in U.S. retail sales in the month of January.
The report said retail sales dropped by 0.4 percent in January following a revised 0.1 percent decrease in December. Economists had expected sales to come in unchanged compared to the 0.2 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.
3 Types of Forex Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
Fundamental
Forex fundamental centers mostly around the currency’s interest rate. Other fundamental factors are included such as Gross Domestic Product, inflation, manufacturing, economic growth activity. However, whether those other fundamental releases are good or bad is of less importance than how those releases affect that country’s interest rate.
As you review the fundamental releases, keep in mind how it might affect the future movement of the interest rates. When investors are in a risk seeking mode, money follows yield and higher rates could mean more investment. When investors are in a risk adverse mentality, then money leaves yield for safe haven currencies.
Technical
Forex technical analysis involves looking at patterns in price history to determine the higher probability time and place to enter and exit a trade. As a result, forex technical analysis is one of the most widely used types of analysis.
Since FX is one of the largest and most liquid markets, the movements on a chart from the price action generally gives clues about hidden levels of supply and demand. Other patterned behavior such as which currencies are trending the strongest can be obtained by reviewing the price chart.
Other technical studies can be conducted through the use of indicators. Many traders prefer using indicators because the signals are easy to read and it makes forex trading simple.
Sentiment
Forex sentiment is another widely popular form of analysis. When you see sentiment overwhelmingly positioned to one direction that means the vast majority of traders are already committed to that position.
Since we know there is a large pool of traders who have already BOUGHT, then these buyers become a future supply of sellers. We know that because eventually, they are going to want to close out the trade. That makes the EUR to USD vulnerable to a sharp pull back if these buyers turn around and sell to close out there trades.
Germany’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure may undermine the recent rebound in the EURUSD as Europe’s largest economy is expected to grow yet another 0.3% during the last three-months of 2013.
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 02/14/2014 7:00 GMT, 2:00 EST
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: 0.3%
Previous: 0.3%
Forecast: 0.1% to 0.3%
Why Is This Event Important:
A disappointing growth report may put increased pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to further embark on its easing cycle amid the threat for disinflation, and the single currency may continue to carve a series of lower highs paired with lower lows amid the protracted recovery in the monetary union.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish Euro Trade: German 4Q GDP Misses Market Forecast
- Need red, five-minute candle following the report to favor a bearish Euro trade
- If reaction favors short Euro trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bullish Euro Trade: Growth Rate Tops 0.3%Potential Price Targets For The Release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
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China CPI Climbs 2.5% On Year In January
Consumer prices in China were up 2.5 percent on year in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
That was unchanged from the December reading, and it exceeded forecasts for 2.4 percent.
German, France Q4 GDP Growth Exceeds Expectations
German and French economic growth at the end of 2013 exceeded expectations, underpinned by investment and foreign demand, official figures revealed Friday. The data bodes well for the larger euro currency bloc that is struggling to see a stable expansion.
According to preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office, German economic growth accelerated marginally to 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter from a quarter ago. The growth exceeded expectations for 0.3 percent growth.
Elsewhere, the French economy expanded 0.3 percent sequentially in the fourth quarter after stagnating in the third quarter. The growth figure was marginally above the 0.3 percent forecast by economists. The third quarter GDP figure was upgraded from 0.1 percent fall.
The report revealed that positive contributions to German GDP were came mainly from foreign trade. The increase in exports of goods and services was substantially higher than that of imports.
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
U.S. Industrial Production Shows Unexpected Drop In January
With severe weather curtailing manufacturing production in some regions of the country, the Federal Reserve released a report on Friday showing that U.S. industrial production unexpectedly decreased in the month of January.
The report said industrial production fell by 0.3 percent in January after rising by 0.3 percent in December. The pullback came as a surprise to economists, who had expected production to increase by another 0.3 percent.