Press review - page 97

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Fundamentals - weekly outlook: February 24 - 28 (based on investing article)

The New Zealand weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as investors continued to look past a recent series of disappointing U.S. economic reports, attributing them to severely cold winter weather.

Tuesday, February 25

  • New Zealand is to produce data on inflation expectations.
  • The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence and a private sector report on house price inflation.
Wednesday, February 26
  • The U.S. is to release data on new home sales, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.
  • Later Wednesday, New Zealand is to release a report on the trade balance.
Thursday, February 27
  • The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, and the weekly report on initial jobless claims.
Friday, February 28
  • New Zealand is to release data on business confidence.
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on fourth quarter growth, a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region, revised data on consumer sentiment and private sector data on pending home sales.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD Fundamentals - weekly outlook: February 24 - 28 (based on investing article)

The pound ended the week lower against the dollar on Friday after a report showed that U.K. retail sales fell more sharply than expected in January, dampening optimism over the economic recovery.

Tuesday, February 25

  • The U.K. is to release private sector reports on mortgage approvals and retail sales.
  • The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence and a private sector report on house price inflation.
Wednesday, February 26
  • The U.K. is to publish revised data on fourth quarter economic growth, as well as preliminary data on business investment.
  • The U.S. is to release data on new home sales, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.
Thursday, February 27
  • The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, and the weekly report on initial jobless claims.
Friday, February 28
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on fourth quarter growth, a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region, revised data on consumer sentiment and private sector data on pending home sales.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Fundamentals - weekly outlook: February 24 - 28 (based on investing article)

The euro was higher against the dollar on Friday following the release of weaker-than-expected data on U.S. existing home sales, amid ongoing concerns over the impact of severe winter weather on the economic recovery.

Monday, February 24

  • The euro zone is to release revised data on consumer price inflation, while the Ifo Institute is to publish a report on German business climate.
Tuesday, February 25
  • The European Commission is to publish its economic forecasts for European Union member states.
  • The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence and a private sector report on house price inflation.
Wednesday, February 26
  • In the euro zone, Germany is to release a report on Gfk consumer climate.
  • The U.S. is to release data on new home sales, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.
Thursday, February 27
  • In the euro zone, Germany is to publish preliminary data on consumer inflation, as well as data on the change in the number of people unemployed.
  • The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, and the weekly report on initial jobless claims.
Friday, February 28
  • The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and a separate report on the unemployment rate across the currency bloc. Germany is to publish data on retail sales.
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on fourth quarter growth, a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region, revised data on consumer sentiment and private sector data on pending home sales.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Week Ahead: It's Now Janet's Planet (adapted from Forbes article)

Before and after Fed chair Janet Yellen gives her updates on Thursday, there is a slew of economic indicators and corporate news to digest – including important reads on the U.S. housing and U.S. retail markets and earnings from some of Asia’s biggest companies.

Monday sees IBM chief executive Ginni Rometty and Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg scheduled to speak at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona in Catalonia, and earnings from HSBC Holdings.

Tuesday brings data on U.S. home prices and consumer confidence and a speech by IMF managing director Christine Lagarde at Stanford University, California. Tuesday also sees earnings from retailers Home Depot and Macy’s and home builder Toll Brothers.

Wednesday brings data on sales of new U.S. homes and earnings from TJX Companies, Target, Lowe’s, J.C. Penney, Baidu, Airbus, and Anheuser-Busch InBev. Also scheduled for Wednesday is a speech by possible 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in Miami.

Thursday provides the focus for the week as Fed chair Janet Yellen speaks to the Senate Banking Committee. Among the many companies reporting earnings on Thursday are Gap, Sears, Best Buy, WPP, Allianz SE, Royal Bank of Scotland and Salesforce.com.

On Friday, traders and investors will get a read on U.S. Gross Domestic Product for the final quarter of last year. Among the companies reporting earnings are Cheung Kong Holdings, Hutchison Whampoa and Pearson. Also on Friday, U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to speak at the Democratic National Committee in Washington.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-02-24 09:00 GMT (or 10:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German Ifo Survey]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

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German Business Confidence Strongest Since Mid-2011

German business confidence strengthened unexpectedly in January to the highest level since July 2011 despite a drop in expectations.

The business confidence index climbed to 111.3 from 110.6 in January, the Ifo institute reportedly said Monday. The reading was expected to remain stable at 110.6.

Likewise, the current conditions index improved to 114.4 from 112.4 a month ago. Nonetheless, the score is below the expected level of 112.7.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-02-25 02:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Inflation Expectations]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

==========

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Can The Fed Stop The Next Recession? Business Can't Bank On It (based on Forbes article)

The Federal Reserve makes decisions based on great academic economists and veteran bank and corporate executives. Politics is minimal, at least compared to most other government decisions. Tremendous resources support the decisions, with great economists on staff, massive data banks and access to outside experts. You would think that the Fed can prevent recessions. You would be wrong.

Business Planning Lessons: Today’s business leaders should add a strong dose of humility to any forecast of the future. The economy is too complex for easy prediction. Not even our top economists do a good job of forecasting recessions. Moreover, our government is not able to prevent future business cycles. The Fed’s 2008 minutes make clear that we should avoid that line of thought.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-02-25 07:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German GDP]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

==========

German Q4 Growth Confirmed At 0.4%

The German economy expanded moderately at the end of 2013, as initially estimated early this month, final data from Destatis showed Tuesday.

The gross domestic product increased 0.4 percent from a quarter ago, slightly faster than the 0.3 percent expansion seen in the third quarter. This was in line with the results of calculations published on February 14.

The expenditure-side breakdown of GDP showed that exports of goods and services were up 2.6 percent from the third quarter. At the same time, imports increased by not more than 0.6 percent.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

2013-02-25 07:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - France Business Climate]

  • past data is 100
  • forecast data is 100
  • actual data is 100 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

==========

French Business Confidence Remains Unchanged In February

French business confidence remained unchanged as expected in February, a closely-watched survey showed Tuesday.

The business sentiment index came in at 100 for the third consecutive month, the statistical office Insee said.

The balance of opinion on past change in production has improved and has reached its long-term average. The balance of opinion on personal production expectation fell marginally to 9 from 10. General production expectations weakened to -6 from -4 in January.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Confidence (adapted from dailyfx article)

  • U.S. Consumer Confidence to Mark First Decline in Three-Months
  • Conference Board’s Survey has Held Above 80.0 for Four Times in 2013

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence survey is expected to narrow to 80.0 in February and a marked decline in household sentiment may trigger a bearish reaction in the U.S. dollar as it dampens the outlook for growth and inflation.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 02/25/2014 15:00 GMT, 10:00 EST
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: 80.0
Previous: 80.7
Forecast: 78.0 to 82.0

Why Is This Event Important:

With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) poised to discuss another $10B taper at the March 19 meeting, a dismal confidence reading may have a greater impact on the interest rate outlook, and the greenback may face additional headwinds over the near to medium-term as the central bank retains the dovish twist to its forward-guidance.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish USD Trade: Confidence Survey Weakens to 80.0 or Lower

  • Need to see green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long trade on EURUSD
  • If market reaction favors a short dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bullish USD Trade: Household Sentiment Unexpectedly Improves
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction

January 2014 U.S. Consumer Confidence (EURUSD M5 : 16 pips price movement by USD - Consumer Confidence news event) :


USD Vulnerable to Further Losses as Consumer Confidence Wanes
USD Vulnerable to Further Losses as Consumer Confidence Wanes
  • David Song
  • www.dailyfx.com
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence survey is expected to narrow to 80.0 in February and a marked decline in household sentiment may trigger a bearish reaction in the U.S. dollar as it dampens the outlook for growth and inflation. With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) poised to discuss another $10B taper at the March 19...