XAU/USD January-March 2017 Forecast: bearish ranging to the bear market rally
W1 price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the berish area of the chart. The price broke Ichimoku cloud together with Senkou Span lines to below in the beginning of November lkast year for the breakdown with the bearish reversal. For now, the price is testing support level at 1122.62 to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. By the way, the bullish reversal level is the resistance at 1197.53, and if the price breaks this level to above so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish trend will be started.
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.24 16:52
Gold (XAU/USD) Q1 2017 Forecast - Gold Weakness to Subside With Fed on Hold in First-Half of 2017 (based on the article)
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.07 10:14
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Despite a miss on the headline Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday, wage growth figures marked the fastest pace of growth since 2009 with print of 2.9% y/y. On the back of this recent update on the labor markets, traders will be lending a keen ear to a fresh batch of central bank commentary with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Fed Governor Jerome Powell, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Chair Janet Yellen slated for speeches next week (all 2017 voting members). Highlighting the economic docket next week is the release of the December retail sales figures on Friday with consensus estimates calling for a print of 0.6%, up from a previous read of just 0.1%. A positive development should keep interest rate expectations well-anchored ahead of the next rate decision on February 1 especially as Fed Fund Futures highlight a greater than 60% probability for a June rate-hike."
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.15 06:45
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Looking ahead to next week, traders will be eyeing inflation data out of the US with the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) slated for Wednesday. Consensus estimates are calling for an uptick in the headline print to 2.1% y/y from 1.7% y/y, with Core CPI (ex food & energy) widely expected to hold at 2.1% y/y. Look for stronger inflation data to stoke interest rate expectations on a beat with such a scenario likely to cap gold advances in the near-term. Note that Fed Fund Futures have seen a slight uptick across the board with markets now pricing a 70% probability for a June rate hike."
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.19 07:50
Gold Technicals: intra-day bullish channel to be broken for correction (based on the article)
H4 XAU/USD price broke bullish channel to below for the secondary correction to be started with 1,182 target.
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.21 17:06
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Heading into next week, traders will be closely eyeing the release of US 4Q GDP figures on Friday. Consensus estimates are calling for an annualized print of 2.2% q/q, down from 3.5% q/q. Keep in mind that interest rate expectations remain firmly rooted for the second half of the year with Fed Fund Futures citing a 74% chance for a hike at the June meeting. However, with the inauguration of a new president and a more ‘business friendly’ administration expected to take the reins, markets may take more cues near-term by the first few days of the Trump presidency. From a trading standpoint, while the broader focus remains constructive, the advance remains vulnerable heading into the last full week of January trade."
Sergey Golubev, 2017.01.30 14:49
If the price breaks 1,219.58 resistance level to above on daily close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.If the price breaks 1,180.48 support level to below on daily close bar so the ranging bearish trend will be resumed.If not so the price will be ranging inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for the direction fo the strong trend to be started.
Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.01 15:44
Gold (XAU/USD) Ahead of FOMC Rate Decision (based on the article)
Daily price is below 200-day SMA in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within 1,220/1,122 levels waiting for the direction of the strong trend to be started. If the price breaks 1,122 support level to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed. Alternative, if the price breaks 1,220 resistance level so the secondary rally will be started with 1,264 nearest daily target as the bullish reversal level.