Press review - page 384

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Unemployment Change and 10 pips price movement

2016-03-31 08:55 GMT | [EUR - German Unemployment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Unemployment Change] = Change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month.

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EURUSD M5: 10 pips price movement by German Unemployment Change news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Current Account and 24 pips price movement

2016-03-31 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Current Account]

  • past data is -20.1B
  • forecast data is -21.2B
  • actual data is -32.7B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Current Account] > Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter.

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"The United Kingdom’s (UK) current account deficit was £32.7 billion in Quarter 4 (October to December) 2015, up from a revised deficit of £20.1 billion in Quarter 3 (July to September) 2015. The deficit in Quarter 4 (October to December) 2015 equated to 7.0% of gross domestic product (GDP) at current market prices, the largest proportion since quarterly records began in 1955, up from 4.3% in Quarter 3 (July to September) 2015."

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GBPUSD M5: 24 pips price movement by U.K. Current Account news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and 51 pips price movement

2016-03-31 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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  • "Real gross domestic product rose 0.6% in January, a fourth consecutive monthly increase. Manufacturing, retail trade, and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction were major contributors to growth in January."
  • "The output of goods-producing industries grew 1.2% in January, mainly as a result of increases in manufacturing and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Utilities, construction, and the agriculture and forestry sector also rose."
  • "The output of service-producing industries rose 0.4%, a fourth consecutive monthly gain. Notable increases were posted in retail trade, the finance and insurance sector, the public sector (education, health and public administration combined) as well as transportation and warehousing services. In contrast, wholesale trade and the arts, entertainment and recreation sector declined."

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USDCAD M5: 51 pips price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Ahead of NFP: Fundamental Forecasts by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Nordea Bank AB and Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (adapted from the article)

2016-04-01 08:55 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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  • BofAML: "The March employment report likely showed another strong month for the labor market. We anticipate a healthy 190,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls, with the private sector contributing 185,000."
  • Nordea: "We expect a 200k gain in nonfarm payrolls in March after the surprisingly strong 242k rise in February, consistent with a continued healthy labour market improvement."
  • SEB: "We take the lowside on this one and forecast a 180k on the headline, 170k on private employment, 0.1% on average hourly earnings and 4.9% on the unemployment rate."

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EUR/USD M5: bullish reversal. Intra-day M5 price broke 100/200 period SMA for the bullish market condition: the price is breaking 1.1390 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be contin uing with 1.1411 level as the nearest bullish target. On the other hand, if the price breaks 1.1376 support level so the bearish reversal will be started with 1.1366 level as the nearest bearish target in this case.


GBP/USD M5: ranging within 100/200 SMA area for direction. Intra-day M5 price is located to be within 100/200 period SMA for the secondary ranging market condition. If the price breaks 1.4366 resistance to above so the bullish reversal will be started with 1.4373 target to re-enter. Alternatively, if the price breaks 1.4337 suport so the primary intra-day bearish trend will be continuing with 1.4328 target.


GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: ranging bullish near reversal area. Intra-day price is located near and above 100/200 period SMA for the bullish market condition with the secondary ranging. if the price breaks 1235.24 resistance to above so the bullish trend will be continuing, otheerwise the price will be on secondary ranging with the possible bearish reversal by breaking 1231.65 support to below and 1229.24 target to re-enter.


Crude Oil M5: intra-day ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting for direction. Intra-day price is located to be within 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for the total ranging market condition within narrow s/r levels waiting for direction. If the price breaks 40.19 resistance on close candle so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started with 40.27 target to re-enter. And if the price breaks 39.95 support level to below so the primary intra-day bearish trend will be continuing with 39.69 as the nearest target.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  
Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change (based on the article)

Another 205K expansion in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spur a near-term pullback in EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

Market participants may pay increased attention to Average Hourly Earnings as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment,’ and the ongoing weakness in private-sector wages may push the committee to further delay the normalization cycle as central bank officials highlight the downward tilt in inflation expectations.

Nevertheless, waning business confidence paired with the rise in planned job-cuts may drag on labor market dynamics, and the dollar may face further losses over the near-term should the NFP report dampen the outlook for growth and inflation.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Expands 205K+ Accompanied by Sticky Wage Growth
  • Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: U.S Labor Report Fails to Meet Market Expectations
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily


  • Despite the divergence paths between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), EUR/USD stands at risk of a further advance and may revisiting the highs from 2015 as it breaks above the February high (1.1375).
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (50% retracement) to 1.1520 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Non-Farm Employment Change and 49 pips range price movement

2016-04-01 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in retail trade, construction, and health care. Job losses occurred in manufacturing and mining."

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EURUSD M5: 49 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and 49 pips range price movement

2016-04-01 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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"Manufacturing expanded in March as the PMI® registered 51.8 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the February reading of 49.5 percent, indicating growth in manufacturing for the first time since August 2015 when the PMI® registered 51.0 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting."

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EURUSD M5: 49 pips range price movement by U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI news event :


ISM - ISM Report - March 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®
  • www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org
FOR RELEASE: April 1, 2016 March 2016 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD and GOLD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "GBP/USD may enjoy a relief rally during the first full-week of April as market participants continue to gauge the outlook for monetary policy, and a further commitment by Fed officials to ‘gradually’ remove the accommodative policy stance may produce near-term headwinds for the greenback as it dampens bets for a rate-hike in the first-half of 2016. In turn, GBP/USD may work its way back towards the top of its current range as the pair remains off of the March low (1.3903) and holds above the 1.4000 handle."


USD/JPY - "We may continue to see capital flow out of Japan which itself will keep pressure on the JPY exchange rate. The USD/JPY in particular seems likely to test near-term lows, but that is just as easily a function of US Dollar weakness instead of Yen strength. It would take a fairly significant shift in Bank of Japan policy to improve outlook for the domestic currency."


AUD/USD - "Monetary policy considerations are front and center for the Australian Dollar in the week ahead, with key event risk on tap on the domestic and the external fronts. First, the RBA will deliver its monthly policy announcement. Then, minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting FOMC committee will give insight on policymakers’ thinking about on-coming rate hike prospects."


USD/CAD - "Next week, Canada will announce employment data which has been volatile this year. In February, the rate was 7.3% with a drop in employment of 2.3 thousand jobs. Another critical component will be housing starts, which will help traders to see if the economy is weathering the year-over-year drop in oil price. Stability or improvement in these measures could further support the price of the Canadian Dollar, and the critical 1.2836 level could soon break."


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Gold is trading at some tricky levels as the pair struggles to solidify a break above a parallel extending off the 2015 October high as momentum continues to hold below the 70-threshold. The risk remains for a pullback in price with interim support eyed at 1246/50 backed by soft support at 1225 & our bullish invalidation level at 1194. We’ll be looking for move lower towards these levels to offer favorable long-entries with a breach of the highs targeting the 2015 high-week close backed at 1294 closely by the 2015 high-day close at 1301. Subsequent topside targets are eyed at the 2014 high week reversal close at 1293."


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Forex Weekly Outlook April 4-8 (based on the article)

The US dollar was hit hard by Yelle’s dovish tone and the recovery was limited. Yellen has another opportunity to move the greenback in the upcoming week. In addition, a rate decision in Australia, the US Non-Manufacturing PMI and the FOMC meeting minutes stand out. These are the highlights of this week.

  1. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 1:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash unchanged at 2% in March, but hinted it may cut rates in the near future. Economists expect the RBA will cut interest rates to 1.5% this year.
  2. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 14:00. The U.S. service sector expanded in February reaching 53.4 a bit lower than the 53.5 posted in the previous month. US service sector is expected to expand further to 54.1 in March.
  3. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. U.S. crude inventories increased 2.3 million barrels in the last week, falling short of the 3.3 million-barrel gain forecasted by analysts. OPEC oil output increased in March, amid higher supply from Iran.
  4. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. The FOMC minutes from the Fed’s January meeting showed the main topic of concern was the continuing deterioration of global financial and their downside risks to the U.S. economy. On the opposite side, some” members noted that wage pressures had increased. Overall the minutes indicate that an easing in global volatility, together with continued improvement in the domestic labor market and inflation, could bring another rate hike in the following months.
  5. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims for unemployment  aid edged up unexpectedly  last week, but remained below the 300,000 line indicating strong employment market. Economists expect 271,000 increase in the number of claims this week.
  6. Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 21:30. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak in New York at the International House. She may talk about the recent positive employment data and the resilient consumer spending and may also refer to her pessimistic views on Global economy and its downside risks to the US economy. Market volatility is expected.
  7. Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Canada’s employment market contracted unexpectedly in February losing 2,300 jobs raising jobless rate to 7.3%.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 34 pips price movement

2016-04-04 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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  • "The trend estimate rose 0.2% in February 2016. This follows a rise of 0.2% in January 2016 and a rise of 0.3% in December 2015."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate was relatively unchanged (0.0%) in February 2016. This follows a rise of 0.3% in January 2016 and a relatively unchanged (0.0%) December 2015."
  • "In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 3.7% in February 2016 compared with February 2015."
  • "The following industries rose in trend terms in February 2016: Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.7%), Household goods retailing (0.3%), Food retailing (0.1%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.1%) and Department stores (0.2%). Other retailing (0.0%) was relatively unchanged in trend terms in February 2016."
  • "The following states and territories rose in trend terms in February 2016: New South Wales (0.2%), Victoria (0.2%), Queensland (0.2%), the Australian Capital Territory (1.1%), South Australia (0.3%), Tasmania (0.3%) and the Northern Territory (0.3%). Western Australia (-0.2%) fell in trend terms in February 2016."

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AUD/USD M5: 34 pips price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event :