Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
EUR/USD: ranging within 1.10/1.13 area for direction
is located near and above 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for
the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging within 1.1057 support level and 1.1342 resistance level.
RSI indicator is estimating the secondary ranging to be continuing.
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures and 12 pips price movement
2016-03-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core PCE Price Index]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Core PCE Price Index] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.
EURUSD M5: 12 pips price movement by U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures news event
A false warning signal for the speculative JPY longs (based on the article)
BNP Paribas publish the article today about "a warning signal for the speculative JPY longs which are running at the highest level since 2011 according to our positioning indicator" - just because "Japanese investors purchasing some JPY 2.3 trn in foreign dent on the week ended March 18."
Let's evaluate this information.
Daily price. If we look at the daily chart so the price is located to be below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish market condition within 114.55 key bullish reversal resistance level and 110.66 key bearish continuation support level. But the price broke symmetric triangle pattern to above together with Chinkou Span line to be going to cross the price to above for good possible breakout with the reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition. So, the most likely scenario for daily price is the bear market rally to be continuing with the good breakout possibility: the key resistance level at 114.55 will likely to be broken with the possible reversal to the bullish trend.
Weekly price is on bearish market condition as well to be located below ichimoku cloud for the ranging within the same key s/r levels: 114.55 and 110.66. Chinkou Span line together with Absolute Strength indicator are estimating the trend to be ranging bearish. So, there are 3 most likely scenarios for weekly price movement for the next few months:
USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Household Spending and 10 pips price movement
2016-03-29 00:30 GMT | [JPY - Household Spending]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)
[JPY - Household Spending] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers.
(1) "Expenditures for Two-or-more-person HouseholdsThe average of monthly consumption expenditures per
household for February 2016 was 269,774 yen, up 1.6% in nominal terms
and up 1.2% in real terms from the previous year."
(2) "Income and Expenditures for Workers' HouseholdsThe average of monthly income per household stood at
478,624 yen, down 2.0% in nominal terms and down 2.4% in real terms from
the previous year.The average of consumption expenditures per household was
297,662 yen, up 2.2% in nominal terms and up 1.8% in real terms from the
USDJPY M5: 10 pips price movement by Japan Household Spending news event
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Financial Policy Committee and 16 pips price movement
2016-03-29 11:00 GMT | [GBP - BoE Financial Policy Committee]
[GBP - BoE Financial Policy Committee] = policy changes taken and commentary about the economic conditions comments.
GBPUSD M5: 16 pips price movement by BoE Financial Policy Committee news event
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Fed Chair Yellen Speech and 14 pips price movement
2016-03-29 17:30 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech] = "Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy" speech at the Economic Club of New York luncheon.
EURUSD M5: 14 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.29 17:59
"The FOMC left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged
in January and March, in large part reflecting the changes in baseline
conditions that I noted earlier. In particular, developments abroad
imply that meeting our objectives for employment and inflation will
likely require a somewhat lower path for the federal funds rate than was
anticipated in December.
Given the risks to the outlook, I consider it appropriate for the
Committee to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy. This caution is
especially warranted because, with the federal funds rate so low, the
FOMC's ability to use conventional monetary policy to respond to
economic disturbances is asymmetric. If economic conditions were to
strengthen considerably more than currently expected, the FOMC could
readily raise its target range for the federal funds rate to stabilize
the economy. By contrast, if the expansion was to falter or if inflation
was to remain stubbornly low, the FOMC would be able to provide only a
modest degree of additional stimulus by cutting the federal funds rate
back to near zero.9
14 pips price movement for EURUSD was immediate effect after Fed Chair Yellen Speech. The medium term situation related to this Speech after publishing it on Federal Reserve website are the following:
1. EURUSD M5: 82 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event
2. GBPUSD M5: 106 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event
3. USDJPY M5: 55 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event
4. GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: 1,406 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event
S&P 500 price went to uptrend based on Fed Chair Yellen Speech published:
As we see from M5 chart so the price broke 100/200 period SMA area for the bullish breakout and with 2054.72 as the new resistance level.
The intra-day H4 price is having the chance to continuing with bullish trend in case the price breaks 2056.31 resistance level.
And we can see the same situation with same key resistance level for daily price: the bullish trend will be re-started in case the price breaks 2056.31 resistance on close daily bar.
2016-03-30 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.
EURUSD M5: 29 pips range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event