is located below 200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within Fibo resistance level at 1.3120 and 61.8% Fibo support level at 1.2831.
SUMMARY : ranging
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.07.09 12:22
Credit Agricole with Week Ahead: Relative Value Trades With Degrees of Separation From The Brexit Trade (adapted from the article)
Credit Agricole was analysiing the Brexit situation onto the forex price movement with the taking into account the pairs with the good degrees of the separation from the Brexit trade for example:
Let's describe the situation with the technical points of view.
Most likely scenarios for the daily price are the following: bullish breakout will be continuing or the ranging within the bullish will be started.
Daily price broke 1.3120 together with 100 SMA to above for the ranging bearish market condition. The local uptrend as the secondary rally was started for the price in the ranging way: the price is located below 200 SMA and within 100 SMA/200 SMA area with 1.3139 resistance level to be tested for the bear market rally to be continuing.
Bearish continuation level is 1.2831 which remains from the previous week, and it means the following: if the price breaks this level to below on daily close bar so the pruimary bearish trend will be continuing.
There are new key level for the daily price for now: 1.3300, and this is the level of 200 SMA on the daily chart. If the price breaks this level to above so the reversal of the daily price movement from the bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
Anyway, the most likely scenario for this week is the following: the price will be on the bearish ranging within 1.33/128 levels.
USDCAD is bullish in long term.
the stop loss is at 1.28200.
it is better buying steply.
It depends on the timeframe fo the chart, for example:
So, if we look at whole the situation for those 3 timeframes - the most likely scenario for this pair is the ranging.
USDCAD trend is in bullish mode in every chart.daily-weekly-monthly.
as EURCAD is in bullish trend.
Charts do not lie.
they are going to break a daily resistance.
however it happend for EURCAD.
Charts speak together and conform together exactly like USDCAD & EURCAD.
I experienced this market more than 10 years.
trust my experience.
There are two dominant themes that it is important to understand when
analyzing the Canadian Dollar from a fundamental standpoint. The first,
as its designation as a commodity currency implies, is the fact that
exports of natural resources (especially gold and oil) make up a
significant part of the Canadian economy. This is important to
understand because as Canada is the world's 14th largest producer of oil
and 5th largest producer of gold, the price of these and other
commodities normally has a direct affect on the Canadian Dollar's
The second thing that it is important to understand here, is the fact
that as the Canadian population is relatively small in comparison to its
land mass, the economy is heavily reliant on exports, which ties the
country more closely together with the international economy as a whole.
This is particularly true in regards to economy of the United States,
as the US is Canada's largest trading partner, and 81% of Canadian
Exports flow to the US.
While many people believe that the US relies most heavily on the middle
east for its oil imports, it is actually Canada that is the largest
supplier of oil to the United States. As the US is the world's largest
oil consumer and Canada is one of the largest producers, fluctuations in
the price of oil have double the impact. As we learned in our lesson
on trade flows, as the US is a net oil importer and Canada is a net oil
exporter, then all else being equal, a rise in the price of oil should
strengthen the CAD and weaken the USD.
While exports of commodities are still a very important component of the
Canadian economy, the country's service sector has experienced massive
growth in recent decades, to the point where the service industry now
accounts for 2/3rds of the country's economic output. This is important
to understand because, as the United States is its largest trading
partner, a slowdown in the US Economy can hurt the Canadian economy and
its currency, even if commodity prices remain high.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.07.13 16:21
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of Canada Overnight Rate, BoC Monetary Policy Report and 101 pips price movement
2016-07-13 14:00 GMT | [CAD - Overnight Rate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
[CAD - Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.
USD/CAD M5: 101 pips price movement by Bank of Canada Overnight Rate news event
M5 price crossed 200 SMA to below for the bearish reversal: the price broke support level by the bearish breakdown and it was bounced from 1.2953 support level for the ranging to be started. If the price breaks 1.2953 level to below so the bearish breakdown will be continuing with the new bottom to be forming, if not so the price will be on the bearish ranging within the levels.