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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.30 18:50
GOLD (XAU/USD): ranging on reversal. Intra-day H4 price is located near and below 100/200 SMA ranging area waiting for direction: price is ranging within the following key reversal s/r levels:
RSI indicator is estinating the bearish trend to be started.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.01 09:07
Ahead of NFP: Fundamental Forecasts by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Nordea Bank AB and Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (adapted from the article)
2016-04-01 08:55 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: ranging bullish near reversal area. Intra-day price is located near and above 100/200
period SMA for the bullish market condition with the secondary ranging. if the price breaks 1235.24 resistance to above so the bullish trend will be continuing, otheerwise the price will be on secondary ranging with the possible bearish reversal by breaking 1231.65 support to below and 1229.24 target to re-enter.
XAUUSD Pivot Points Analysis - ranging around R1 Pivot at 1230.41
W1 price was on bullish reversal breakout since end of January this year: the price broke Central Yearly Pivot at 1138.34 to above to be reversed from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition. Price is ranging for now around R1 Pivot at 1230.41 just having 2 main scenarios for the movement in the future:
Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)
XAU/USD: intra-day breakdown with possible bearish reversal. This pair is
on breakdown for crossing Ichimoku cloud to below for the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition: price is testing 1229.02 support level to below for the breakdown to be continuing.
Daily Technical Analysis for GOLD (XAU/USD)
XAU/USD: daily bullish breakout to be started on open bar. The price is located near and above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the primary bullish area of the daily chart: price is testing 1270.87 resistance level together with Chinkou Span crossing the price to abiove on open daily bar for now for the bullish breakout to be started in the near future. Alternative, if the price breaks 1201.84 support level to below so the bearish reversal will be started. Anyway, Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing with the price to be located inside Ichimoku cloud in the future.
GOLD (XAU/USD) Intra-Day Price Action Analysis - bearish ranging on bullish reversal area
H4 price was on breakdown with the bearish reversal: price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal levels for the bearish market condition with the secondary ranging to be started within the following key support/resistance levels:
RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bearish market condition to be continuing.
If the price will break Fibo support level at 1,227.32 so the primary bearish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging. If the price will break 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 1,248.79 from below to above so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition. If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.30 08:58
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CNH, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.07 09:45
Forex Weekly Outlook May 9-13 (based on the article)
Graeme Wheeler’s speech, US Crude Oil Inventories, rate decision, Mark Carney’s speech, US Unemployment Claims, Retail sales, Producer Prices and consumer sentiment. These are the main events on Forex calendar.
GOLD (XAU/USD) daily price is on bullish market condition located above 200 SMA/100 SMA: the price is started for the bullish trend to be continuing (on open daily bar for now) after the ranging condition. The resistance level at 1,303.69 is going to be broken by the price to above for the possible breakout to be started.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.10 20:39
Gold Lower On Follow-Through Selling and Profit Taking (based on the article)
"Gold prices ended the U.S. day session modestly lower Tuesday, on some follow-through selling from the shorter-term futures traders, after the solid losses seen Monday. Some profit taking was also featured. The recent rebound in the U.S. dollar index has also been a bearish “outside market” force working against the precious metals bulls the past few sessions. June Comex gold futures were last down $4.80 an ounce at $1,261.90. July Comex silver was last down $0.009 at $17.08 an ounce."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.14 10:11
Forex Weekly Outlook May 16-20 (the source)
The US dollar had another positive week, enjoying some good data. UK and US inflation data, housing figures and most importantly the FOMC Meeting Minutes stand out. These are the highlights of this week.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.21 10:35
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, USD/CNH, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Looking ahead to next week, traders will be
closely eyeing the release of U.S. Durable Goods as well as the second
read on 1Q GDP. Note that growth in the first quarter was disappointing
(just 0.5% q/q), with consensus estimates calling for an upward revision
to 0.8% q/q. Of particular interest will be the release of the Personal
Consumption Expenditure (PCE) which is the Fed’s preferred gauge on
inflation and a stronger print could further stoke expectations for a
June rate hike. We’ll also be looking for a fresh batch of central bank
rhetoric with speeches from St Louis Fed President James Bullard,
Governor Jerome Powell and Chair Janet Yellen on tap. If expectations
for a June hike continue to be brought forward, look for gold remain on
the defensive. Although the technical picture remains bleak, the decline
is coming into near-term support targets which may offer prices a
near-term reprieve from the recent downside pressure."