Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 4

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Sergey Golubev
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GOLD (XAU/USD): End Of Week Technicals - ranging within bullish resistance level and the bearish reversal support level

Daily price is above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA area for the bullish market condition with the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 1283.35 resistance located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA area in the primary bullish of the chart, and
  • 1144.75 support level located near 100-day SMA/200-day SMA on the border between the primary bullish and the primary bearish trend.

RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing.

If the price breaks 1144.75 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If the price breaks 1283.35 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1283.35 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1144.75 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish


Resistance
 Support
1283.351225.60
N/A1144.75

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging
Sergey Golubev
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GOLD (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis 2016, 20.03 - 27.03: ranging to correction

Daily price is on primary bullish market condition located above Ichimoku cloud and above Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is ranging within the following key support/resistance lines:

  • 1283.35 key resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1225.60 key support level located above Ichimoku cloud on the border between the primary bullish and the secondary correction, and
  • 1190.80 key support level located near Senkou Span line on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish area.

Chinkou Span line is crossing the price to below on open daily bar for the possible daily breakdown to be started, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the secondary correction in the nexr future, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the ranging trend to be continuing.

If D1 price will break 1225.60 support level on close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 1190.80 support level on close bar from above to below so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish condition with the secondary ranging.
If D1 price will break 1283.35 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1283.35 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1225.60 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
1283.351225.60
N/A
1190.80



SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.19 09:30

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and GOLD (based on the article)

US Dollar - "The S&P 500 and other risk-oriented markets have extended a multi-week climb; but the fundamental backdrop to support the move is more than porous. Abrupt market moves are more likely to align to risk aversion; and the Greenback is likely to revert to a more responsive haven status. Risk or data moves this week however will be tempered somewhat by holiday trading conditions as March 25 is Good Friday for many markets."


EUR/USD - "Next week is devoid of high-importance news events out of Europe, but there are numerous medium and low-importance announcements on the docket. The highlights are German data on Tuesday, both the IFO and the German Zew Survey, while Wednesday brings consumer confidence numbers and Thursday brings PMI’s for the Euro-Zone, France and Germany. Each of these could be market moving, but given that much of this data was compiled before the announcement of Mr. Draghi, expect down-side prints to be somewhat muted while top-side data gets accentuated by markets."


GBP/USD - "In turn, a slew of positive U.K. data prints accompanied by waning U.S. interest-rate expectations may fuel a further short-squeeze in GBP/USD as there appears to be a shift in market positioning."


AUD/USD - "The correlation between the currency and the S&P 500 stock index – a benchmark for market-wide risk trends – remains elevated at 0.92 on rolling 20-day studies. Alternatively, upbeat outcomes may yield the opposite dynamic."


NZD/USD - "Considering the upcoming data, NZD/USD may continue to advance into the December high (0.6882), and the key developments coming out of New Zealand’s construction, retail spending and business services could make up for the drop in Dairy exports. If the New Zealand economy remains stable at the same time that the U.S. Dollar goes without a bid, we could soon move closer to 0.7000."


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "From a technical standpoint, gold is trading at some tricky levels as the pair struggles to solidify a break above a parallel extending off the 2015 October high as momentum continues to hold below the 70-threshold. The risk remains for a pullback in price with interim support eyed at 1246/50 backed by soft support at 1225 & our bullish invalidation level at 1194. We’ll be looking for move lower towards these levels to offer favorable long-entries with a breach of the highs targeting the 2015 high-week close backed at 1294 closely by the 2015 high-day close at 1301. Subsequent topside targets are eyed at the 2014 high week reversal close at 1293."


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Sergey Golubev, 2014.01.06 18:38

What is the Pip Cost for Gold and Silver?


  1. Gold: Symbol XAU/USD
    The pip cost for 1 ounce of Gold (minimum trade size) is $0.01 per pip.
  2. Silver: Symbol XAG/USD
    The pip cost for 50 ounces of Silver (minimum trade size) is $0.50 per pip

Example with GOLD (XAU/USD): 1221.39 - 1218.02 = 337 pips


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.23 17:31

GOLD (XAU/USD) Intra-Day Fundamentals: EIA Crude Stocks and 337 pips price movement

2016-03-23 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 9.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 532.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at hisorically high levels for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.6 million barrels last week, but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 0.3 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 6.9 million barrels last week."

==========

XAUUSD M5: 337 pips price movement by EIA Crude Stocks news event :



Sergey Golubev
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I was reading some article in Forbes and it was stated that 'it is the time to invest in silver'. So, let's evaluate the situation with SILVER (XAG/USD) compare with GOLD (XAU/USD).

GOLD (XAU/USD daily). Correction to bearish reversal. Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition: the price is breaking 1215.24 support level to below for the secondary correction to be started with 1190.86 key bearish reversal support level as the next target.

If D1 price will break 1215.24 support level on close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started with 1190.86 as the next target.
If D1 price will break 1190.86 support level so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging: the price will be inside Ichimoku cloud.
If D1 price will break 1263.31 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so
the price will be ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch daily close price to break 1263.31 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch daily close price to break 1215.24 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: correction
Resistance
Support
1263.311215.24
1283.49
1190.86


SILVER (XAG/USD daily)
. Bearish reversal
. Daily price is located near and above Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish on the chart: the price is breaking 15.17 key support level for the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price to below on open daily bar for good bearish reversal breakdown to be started in the near future.

If D1 price will break 15.17 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 16.12 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so
the price will be ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch daily close price to break 16.12 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch daily close price to break 15.17 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish reversal
Resistance
Support
16.1215.17
N/A
14.60

General Conslusion.
As we see from the charts above - the Silver is on bearish reversal on open bar for now, and we may see the bearish breakdown in short-term situation. The Gold is on correction within the bullish, and the bearish reversal may be possible but in the medium-term situation for example.

To make it shorter
Do not invest in silver in the near future.

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

GOLD (XAU/USD) April Outlook - ranging bullish near the key bearish reversal level

W1 price is on primary bullish market condition with secondary ranging: the price is located above Ichimoku cloud and above Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

  • The price was bounced from 1283.35 key resistance level to start to be ranging within the bullish market condition.
  • Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line of Ichimoku indicator which is indicating the primary bullish trend to be continuing.
  • Chinkou Span line is located above the price estimating the ranging bullish trend.
  • Nearest support levels are 1190.80 (W1) and 1097.14 (W1).
  • Nearest resistance levels are 1263.34 (W1) and 1283.35 (W1).


If W1 price will break 1190.80 support level on close W1 bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with the secondary ranging: price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud.
If W1 price will break 1283.35 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

Trend:

W1 - ranging bullish
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.26 11:23

Forex Weekly Outlook Mar 28- Apr 1 (based on the article)

The US dollar managed to claw back some of its previous losses on the week leading to Easter. US CB Consumer Confidence, Janet Yellen’s speech, and the buildup to the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls report all stand out. These are the important events on forex calendar.

  1. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. Consumer confidence declined to a seven-month low of 92.2 in February from 98.1 posted in January.
  2. Janet Yellen speaks: Tuesday, 16:30. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak in New York. In her speech titled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” she may refer to the Fed’s decision to cut the number of rate hikes in 2016 amid lower growth and inflation forecasts. Market volatility is expected. She may or may clear the confusion created by the dovish Fed decision and the consequent hawkish sounds.
  3. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. The ADP National Employment Report showed a job gain of 214,000 in February, beating economists’ expectations for 185,000 jobs addition.
  4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
  5. Mark Carney speaks: Thursday, 8:00. BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak about financial stability in Tokyo. He may talk about the Brexit debate in the UK and its possible effects on the UK and the Eurozone. Volatility can be expected. We have seen rising chances of a Brexit following the Brussels bombings. This has an impact on the pound as well as the euro.
  6. Canadian GDP: Thursday, 12:30. The Canadian economy expanded 0.2% in December exceeding market forecast of 0.1% gain.
  7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits climbed modestly last week, rising 6,000 to a seasonally reading of 265,000.
  8. Chinese PMIs: Friday: the official one at 1:00 and the independent Caixin one at 1:45.
  9. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30 The U.S. employment market posted a better-than-expected jobs gain of 242,000 in February, beating forecasts of 195,000 addition. The strong reading followed a 172,000 gain in January. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.9%. Despite the strong figure, hourly wages actually fell 3 cents and equating to a 2.2% annualized jump, lower than 2.5% in January. Economists expect a job gain of 208,000 in March. This time, we will not have the ISM PMIs available before the release, so the level of uncertainty is higher.
  10. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 14:00.

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GOLD (XAU/USD) Intra-Day Technical Analysis Ahead Of Yellen Speech

H4 price is on primary bearish market condition: the price is located below Ichimoku cloud and below Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

  • Chinkou Span line is located below the price indicating the local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started in the near future.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the secondary rally to be started.
  • The nearest support levels for H4 price are 1212.65 and 1207.86.
  • The nearest resistance levels are 1223.08 and 1260.21.
Resistance
Support
1223.081212.65
1260.211207.86


If H4 price will break 1207.86 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If H4 price will break 1223.08 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish trend will be started.
If H4 price will break 1260.21 resistance level on close bar so the intra-day price will be reversed to the bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1223.08 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1207.86 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: rally

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : rally
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.29 21:17


"The FOMC left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged in January and March, in large part reflecting the changes in baseline conditions that I noted earlier. In particular, developments abroad imply that meeting our objectives for employment and inflation will likely require a somewhat lower path for the federal funds rate than was anticipated in December.

Given the risks to the outlook, I consider it appropriate for the Committee to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy. This caution is especially warranted because, with the federal funds rate so low, the FOMC's ability to use conventional monetary policy to respond to economic disturbances is asymmetric. If economic conditions were to strengthen considerably more than currently expected, the FOMC could readily raise its target range for the federal funds rate to stabilize the economy. By contrast, if the expansion was to falter or if inflation was to remain stubbornly low, the FOMC would be able to provide only a modest degree of additional stimulus by cutting the federal funds rate back to near zero.9

One must be careful, however, not to overstate the asymmetries affecting monetary policy at the moment. Even if the federal funds rate were to return to near zero, the FOMC would still have considerable scope to provide additional accommodation. In particular, we could use the approaches that we and other central banks successfully employed in the wake of the financial crisis to put additional downward pressure on long-term interest rates and so support the economy--specifically, forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate and increases in the size or duration of our holdings of long-term securities. While these tools may entail some risks and costs that do not apply to the federal funds rate, we used them effectively to strengthen the recovery from the Great Recession, and we would do so again if needed."


======

14 pips price movement for EURUSD was immediate effect after Fed Chair Yellen Speech. The medium term situation related to this Speech after publishing it on Federal Reserve website are the following:

1. EURUSD M5: 82 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event :


2. GBPUSD M5: 106 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event :


3. USDJPY M5: 55 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event :


4. GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: 1,406 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event :



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