Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 163

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.02 13:14

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 03.04 - 10.04: bullish breakout to be continuing, or the ranging trend to be started

Daily price is on bullish market condition located above Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. Price is on bullish breakout with 1.1411 resistance level, Absolute Strength indicator and Trend Strength indicator are estimating the bullish trend to be continuing.

If D1 price will break 1.1143 support level on close bar so the bearish trend reversal will be started with the secondary ranging condition.
If D1 price will break 1.1411 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1411 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1143 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish
Resistance
Support
1.14111.1143
1.1713
1.0813


SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : breakout

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for S&P 500

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.03 09:29

S&P 500 Long-Term Technical Analysis: bullish breakout near 100/200 SMA ranging area

Weekly price is on bullish breakout started in the middle of February this year: the price broke 100 period SMA to above from the ranging bullish to the primary bullish market condition with ascending triangle pattern to be formed for the bullish trend to be continuing. The price is breaking 2056.31 key resistance on close weekly bar for the key resistance at 2116.27 as the nearest bullish target to re-enter.


Resistance
 Support
2056.311889.99
2116.271809.44
The Long-Term Strategy: watch close price to break 2116.27 resistance level for possible buy trade. Otherwise - watch price to break 1809.44 support level for possible sell trade on the weekly bearish reversal movement

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for USD/CNH

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.03 18:28

USD to China Offshore Spot: secondary correction to the ranging bearish reversal

W1 price is located to be above Ichimoku cloud and above Senkou Span line which is the border of the cloud and virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

The price was on the secondary correction since the end of January this year, and the ranging near-and-above Ichimoku cloud is started since the middle of March with the nearest support level at 6.4401. The price is ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 6.3201 support level located near and below Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bearish trend on the chart, and
  • 6.6508 resistance level located to be above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart.

The price is crossing symmetric triangle pattern for the direction with Absolute Strength indicator estimating the correction to be continuing up to the bearish reversal.

If the price will break 6.3201 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If the price will break 6.6508 resistance level from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging between the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close W1 price to break 6.6508 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch W1 price to break 6.3201 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: correction
Resistance
Support
6.65086.4401
6.7681
6.3201

Trend:

W1 - correction

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.04 07:04

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 34 pips price movement

2016-04-04 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.2% in February 2016. This follows a rise of 0.2% in January 2016 and a rise of 0.3% in December 2015."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate was relatively unchanged (0.0%) in February 2016. This follows a rise of 0.3% in January 2016 and a relatively unchanged (0.0%) December 2015."
  • "In trend terms, Australian turnover rose 3.7% in February 2016 compared with February 2015."
  • "The following industries rose in trend terms in February 2016: Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.7%), Household goods retailing (0.3%), Food retailing (0.1%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.1%) and Department stores (0.2%). Other retailing (0.0%) was relatively unchanged in trend terms in February 2016."
  • "The following states and territories rose in trend terms in February 2016: New South Wales (0.2%), Victoria (0.2%), Queensland (0.2%), the Australian Capital Territory (1.1%), South Australia (0.3%), Tasmania (0.3%) and the Northern Territory (0.3%). Western Australia (-0.2%) fell in trend terms in February 2016."

==========

AUD/USD M5: 34 pips price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event :



Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.04 08:08

GBP/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - waiting to break the levels

H4 price is located between SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) waiting for the direction for the possible breakout or breakdown. The key support/resistance levels for this pair are the following: 1.4370 as the resistance and 1.4170 as support level.

  • If the price will break 1.4370 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.4170 support so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.43701.4170
1.44581.4056


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.4170 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4370 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.04 08:51

Crude Oil Intra-Day Technical Analysis - breakdown with the bearish reversal

H4 price is crossing 200 period SMA for the reversal of intra-day price movement from the secondary correction within the bullish trend to the primary bearish market condition: the price is breaking 38.16 support level to below for the breakdown to be continuing. The key reversal support/resistance levels are the following:

  • 38.16 support level located in the beginning of the bearish area of intra-day chart, and
  • 40.38 resistance level located on the border between the ranging bullish and the primary bullish area.

RSI indicator is estimating the bearish breakdown to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 40.38 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 38.16 support so the bearish reversal will be started up to 35.05 level as the next bearish target to re-enter.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
40.3838.16
42.4935.05



  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 38.16 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 40.38 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: breakdown

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish reversal

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for US Dollar Index

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.04 15:13

Dollar Index Future - Long-Term Forecast: correction to be started with 88.36 bearish reversal level

Weekly price is located to be above 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the primary bullish market condition: the secondary correction was started in the beginning of March this year with descending triangle pattern to be broken to below with 94.32 key support level for the secondary correction to be continuing.

If the price breaks 94.32 support level so the secondary correction will be continuing up to 92.62 target to re-enter.
If the price breaks 88.36 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with the secondary ranging: the price will be located inside 100/200 SMA ranging area.
If the price breaks 100.51 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 98.58 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 92.62 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: correction


Resistance
 Support
98.5894.32
100.51
92.62
 N/A88.36

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : correction

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for SILVER (XAG/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.04 17:29

Quick Technical Overview - SILVER (XAG/USD): correction to the bearish reversal

Daily price was on daily breakdown started in October last year: the price broke 100/200 SMA ranging area to below for the bearish reversal with the secondary ranging which was started in the end of 2015 together with the local uptrend as the bear market rally. The price was reversed back to the bullish condition in the beginning of 2016 by the breaking 100/200 SMA ranging area to above together with key resistance levels. For now - the price is on bullish market condition with the secondary ranging within the following key reversal s/r levels:

  • 16.12 key resistance level located far above 100/200 SMA in the primary bullish area of the daily chart, and
  • 14.77 key support level located near 200-day SMA in the beginning of the bearish area.
RSI indicator is estimating the secondary correction to be continuing with the possible bearish reversal.

If the price breaks 14.77 support level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If the price breaks 16.12 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 16.12 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 14.77 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: correction


Resistance
 Support
15.5114.77
16.1214.60

SUMMARY : bullish (possible reversal to the bearish)

TREND : correction

Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.05 08:02

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rates and 42 pips price movement

2016-04-05 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

AUDUSD M5: 42 pips price movement by Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rates news event :



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.05 08:36

GBP/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging near 200 SMA ranging area waiting for direction ahead of Services PMI news event

M15 price is located near and below SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) waiting for the direction for the possible breakout or breakdown. The key support/resistance levels for this pair are the following:

  • 1.4321 resistance located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.4184 support level located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area.

RSI indicator is estimating the raging bearish trend to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 1.4321 resistance level so the intra-day price will be reversed back to the bullish condition.
  • If price will break 1.4184 support so the bearish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.42781.4233
1.43211.4184


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.4184 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4321 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bearish

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction