Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.16 09:12
EUR/USD Into FOMC - BNPP (based on efxnews article)
BNPP is expecting for Thursday’s FOMC statement to be in dovish way and as a result - the EUR/USD should come to 1.10 to be near 1.1088 reversal support level located inside Ichimoku cloud and below 200 day SMA in the ranging bearish area of the chart.
For now - the price is located near above 200 day SMA to be ready for the bullish trend to be continuing, or to reverse to the primary bearish market condition with secodary ranging. If daily price crosses 1.1088 from above to below so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.16 12:00
Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD - SEB (based on efxnews article)
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made an intra-day forecast for
EUR/USD. As we see from the chart below - the price is located between
100 SMA and 200 SMA for ranging market condition waiting for direction.
On daily base - the price is near above 200 day SMA for trying to cross
it from above to below for the ranging bearish condition to be started
in this case.
EUR/USD: Bears are happier below 1.1329. "A near-term
bearish impulse may or may have not yet started. If holding from
breaking back over 1.1329 and instead extending the drop below the
near-term "Equality point" at 1.1240 we believe in the former. Current
intraday stretches (shouldn't really become tested ahead of Fed) are
located at 1.1200 & 1.1370."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.17 12:57
How To Trade The FOMC - Credit Agricole (based on efxnews article)
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.18 07:14
USD Post-FOMC by Major Banks (based on efxnews article)
The dovish FOMC was on Thursday at 19:00 GMT so the major banks are made a forecast about the USD after FOMC.
Morgan Stanley: "Long USD positioning is vulnerable over
coming days and perhaps weeks...But USD Impact Temporary. Our
structurally bullish USD view has never been Fed-focused. Rather, our
framework is built on the reduced investment attractiveness in much of
the rest of the world. Any setback in the USD is likely to be
short-lived in our view, providing a renewed buying opportunity against
EM and commodity-related currencies."
BofA Merill: "The lowering of the median dots raises risks around
a hike this year. But, the FOMC’s confidence in the outlook
(particularly in the labor market) underpins hikes later this year, and
therefore, the policy divergence theme we expect to support the USD. With
a 30% chance priced into the meeting, we would expect some near-term
pressure on the USD—particularly versus commodity-linked currencies
where USD positioning is largest—as the timing of the first hike is now
less certain. However, with any significant USD weakness likely to
incent other central banks (like the ECB) to ease further and given our
view for a December Fed hike, we see USD downside as limited here."
Nomura: "For the FX market specifically, Nomura doesn't think the
information received today will lead to a sustained unwinding of USD
longs versus G10 currencies—i.e., momentum could fade within a few
sessions. We have been flat in terms of USD exposure versus majors for
the last several weeks in anticipation of this outcome. But looking
ahead, the Fed is still operating with liftoff this year as the central
case, as the 2015 dots clearly signal. Bottom line: We still
believe that our 1.10 year-end target for EURUSD is likely to be
achieved under the assumption th that the Fed is able to raise rates by
the December meeting, which seems fairly likely."
SocGen: "The Fed’s decision to leave rates on hold was
not a surprise to a market positioned that way but the tone of the
statement and the new lowered ‘dot-path’ (median sees one hike this
year, 4 in 2016, 5 in 2017 and 3 in 2018 for a 3.375% Funds rate peak)
have dragged Treasury yields down. That is not
dollar-supportive. However, any bounce in risk assets will be
short-lived. A dovish and dithering Fed inspires little confidence. Once
EMinspired reduction in dollar long positions is over, we look for AUD,
NZD and CAD to weaken again, with NZD the most vulnerable. And the
biggest winner could still be the yen if the risk mood sours."
Danske: "We target EUR/USD at 1.10 in 3M and 6M and then up to 1.15 in 12M. We
forecast JPY to underperform among the G4 as rising expectations for
additional BoJ easing will support USD/JPY going into the 30 October
Bank of Japan meeting. Moreover, we note that the upside potential in
USD/JPY has increased following the past week’s substantial reduction in
specualtive short JPY positions. We target USD/JPY at 124 and 125 in 3M and 6M, respectively.
In contrast to EUR and JPY, GBP is also expected to perform on a 3M to
6M horizon supported by higher Uk interest rates as we still project
Bank of England to hike in February. In the very short term, however,
GBP is likely to come under pressure on low inflation prints in the UK
as due to BoE’s explicit concerns about the weak short term inflation
outlook. We forecast GBP/USD at 1.53 in 3M."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.18 14:01
Trade Ideas For EUR/USD - UBS (based on efxnews article)
From fundamental point of view
UBS made a forecast for EUR/USD based on fundamental news event which was yesterday:"The overall reaction to the FOMC decision yesterday has been relatively
muted considering this was one of the biggest events of the year. The
market's focus can now shift elsewhere, and with concerns over China's
economy and a lack of confidence from the Fed, equities should remain
under pressure. The possibility of easing from the ECB in October should
cap the upside in EURUSD."
From the technical point of view
Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging between 1.1440 intermediate resistance level and 1.1131 intermediate support level. The key levels for the bearish or bullish trend to be continuing are the following: 1.1713 bullish resistance and 1.0924 bearish support. The price may be ranging within 1.1440/1.1131 or within 1.1713/1.0924 levels but the ranging market will be continuing until the price will break one of the bullish/bearish key s/r levels.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.20 18:18
USD, EUR, JPY, GBP and AUD For The Coming Week By Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)
USD: Bullish Despite the Fed. Bullish"The more dovish Fed meeting does not change our bullish USD view. To
us, the story for USD strength has always been much more about growth
differentials than rate differentials. The Fed’s concern about global
growth only highlights the extent to which this divergence continues. In
the near term, there may be some short-lived retracement as markets
reprice the first Fed hike, but we would use dips as a buying
opportunity against EM and commodity currencies."
EUR: Still Supported from Risk. Neutral"We remain bearish on EUR over the medium term but see reason for some
support in the near term. EURUSD has been supported in the immediate
aftermath of the Fed’s decision to keep rates on hold, benefiting from
its inverse relationship with risk appetite. Eventually, we believe the
effects of ECB policy and other bearish factors will push EUR lower, but
we are not maintaining any shorts currently in our portfolio."
JPY: Expect Strength on Crosses. Neutral"We see upside to USDJPY as limited and believe there is scope for JPY
to strengthen on the crosses. The S&P downgrade is likely to have
limited impact on the currency, with most debt held domestically and
Japanese pension fund reallocation largely completed. Market
expectations for further BoJ easing are still high, but our economists
are not expecting such a development. Rather, they see focus on building
domestic inflationary pressures, rather than importing it via weaker
GBP: Risk-Appetite Driven. Bearish"We maintain our long bearish GBP view and like to sell against USD and
JPY. We note that GBP is highly sensitive to risk appetite as can be
seen by its high correlation with our global risk demand index
(GRDIIDX). For this reason we continue to monitor the equity market
reaction in this Fed-dependent environment. With inflation remaining low
and the BoE not changing its tone in the recent minutes, we remain
watchers of rate expectations too."
AUD: A Relative Outperformer. Bearish"We see scope for AUD to outperform in the near term, but prefer to play
this via long AUDNZD or long AUDCAD positions, given our generally
bearish view on commodity and EM currencies. Scope for fiscal stimulus
from China should offer some support to the currency as well. On top of
this, with a new prime minister, political uncertainty should be reduced
somewhat, offering further support."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.21 09:06
EUR/USD: Choppy Sideways Consolidation - by UOB (based on efxnews article)
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.21 14:48
Trade ideas for EUR/USD by UBS (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: "In the short term, the pair may have come a
bit too far in low volumes during the late US/early Asia trading hours,
but we prefer playing the short side, looking to add around 1.1350, with
an intraday stop at 1.1425."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.22 16:31
Trade Ideas For EUR/USD by UBS (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: "The first hurdle on the way lower is
1.1150/55, and if that breaks we think the pair may test the low of
1.1090 from the previous US payrolls release. We do not want to be short
at these levels, but would get involved on any move closer to today's
high of 1.1206, with a stop at 1.1255."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.23 08:08
EUR/USD Daily Outlook (based on actionforex article)