Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.04 12:08
Trading NFP by Credit Agricole (based on efxnews article)
Credit Agricole expects NFP to be 220K and
unemployment rate of 5.3%:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.04 15:14
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
2015-09-04 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Rate]
if actual < forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
This is ranging price movement during this high impacted news events. Ranging because of the following:
That is why ranging.
EURUSD M5: 100 pips ranging price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event:
Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5
Sergey Golubev, 2012.12.31 06:29
3 Stoch MaFibo, M1 timeframe.We may trade this template:
And some explanation about the lines/indicators:
Sergey Golubev, 2012.12.31 06:43
And some more:
So, those images can tell all about how to trade/use this setup.How to load it in MT5?
See template attached on this post https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/9773#comment_396614How to use template file?Place template file to template folder (to C:\Program Files\MetaTrader 5\Profiles\Templates for example), after that - open chart (M5 in our example), right mouse click on any place of the chart and select Templates - [your/our template] (3stoch_black or 3stoch_white in our example).
Sergey Golubev, 2013.01.02 15:58
So, concerning trend following way -
uptrend if - signal line (dotted line) is below main line &&- both lines are growing&&- both lines are above level 50&& is and in mql5 programming language (read more here) :)
- signal line (dotted line) is above main line &&- both lines are falling&&- both lines are below level 50
Why level 50? No idea. It may be any level but 50 is usually used for that.Example - if you ask the coder to program EA for you telling him that "the signal is filtering by stochastics indicator" so the coder will use trend following way of fintering with the level 50.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.07 09:34
EUR/USD forecast: sideway trading for today and breaking the levels for tomorrow (based on efxnews article)
United Overseas Bank made a forecast for EUR/USD for today expecting the ranging market condition between 1.1105 and 1.1205:
Let's evaluate this forecast to estimate the levels for today and tomorrow.
EUR/USD: ranging for today and break the levels for tomorrow. This pair is
ranging between 100-SMA and 200-SMA within the following key levels:
means - if the price crosses 1.1339 resistance from below to above so
we may see the bullish breakout with the reversal of the price movement
to the bullish market condition. If the price crosses 1.0947 support so
it may be reversal to the bearish with good breakdown possibility.
the forecast of UOB may be the correct one but with the following
levels: 1.1339/1.0947. By the way, the daily levels for tomorrow are the
following: 1.1713 key resistance and 1.0807 key support: the price is
ranging between those 1.1713/1.0807 levels, and if the price breaks one
of those level - we may see the primary bearish/bullish trend to be
Thus, intraday levels are 1.1339/1.0947, and the levels for daily trading for this week are 1.1713/1.0807.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.07 19:44
Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD - SEB (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: Downside risks still persist. "Last week ended
with some rather choppy hours post the NFP and the hourly chart
indicates either a possible bear triangle or a bear flag in the making.
The first alternative points at resuming sellers in the 1.1170’s and
latter one closer to 1.12. Both alternatives will be given a bearish
confirmation breaking below 1.1090."
EUR/JPY: Should soon run into offers. "Last week ended
with another clearly bearish weekly candle, the second consecutive one.
On a shorter time frame the market traced, as outlined, out a couple of
fresh lows before started to correct some of the latest decline. This
corrective move higher is seen primarily ending towards 133.65.
Thereafter our focus will again turn to the downside and a resumption of
the bear trend."
GBP/USD: A small bounce, then lower again. "The pair
reached 1.5170 support on Friday and the much muted reaction from the
support is clearly sending a bearish message. The weekly candle also
became a good follow through one to the preceding week’s bearish key
week reversal. All in all the downside pressure remains high and only a
minor bounce should hence be justified from current levels."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.08 14:03
Barclays - 'we recommend remaining short EURUSD' (based on efxnews article)
Barclays made a forecast for this week concerning EUR/USD related to funbdamental factors such as the following:
Let's evaluate this forecast concerning the technical point of view:
Sergey Golubev, 2014.01.06 18:38
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.09 13:07
BTMU Forecasts for EUR/USD: 1.060 in December 2015 (based on efxnews article)
This pair is on bearish market condition for
ranging between Fibo resistance level at 1.1713 and Fibo support level
at 1.0850. Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be
broken with 1.0807 resistance level for the bearish trend to be
continuing, and the next bearish targets in this case are 1.0520 and
According to the forecast made by Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, this triangle pattern will be broken from above to
below together with 1.0807 target by the end of this year, and we may
see good bearish breakdown possibilities in the beginning of 2016: the
price will break 1.0520/1.0461 support levels by March 2016, and EUR/USD
will be at 1.000 in Jun'16.
Many int'l institutions made a prediction for the EUR/USD to be 1.000
or less than that at year-end but this is the first forecast which was
clarified the values of this pair in detailed timing way: we will see
the EUR/USD to be 1.000 in June 2016 only.