Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 125

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.04 12:08

Trading NFP by Credit Agricole (based on efxnews article)

Credit Agricole expects NFP to be 220K and unemployment rate of 5.3%:

  • "A NFP print in line of stronger than consensus accompanied by solid weekly earnings' gains will suggest that lift-off cannot be postponed for too long. Given that the investors have pared back significantly their rate hike expectations for September and October, a stronger NFP print will also have a more pronounced market impact in our view. We expect the USD to do well under this outcome with EUR and risk-correlated among the biggest losers."
  • "A weak print, eg a NFP print below 190K and a soft weekly earnings' gain (essentially a sub 2% YoY growth), could lead the markets to pare back lift-off bets. We suspect that while negative for USD, the overall impact may be less pronounced and could see investors selling USD against JPY, EUR and CHF yet again. Any relief rally in risk-correlated currencies should prove short-lived."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.04 15:14

2015-09-04 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

2015-09-04 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Rate]

if actual < forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

==========

This is ranging price movement during this high impacted news events. Ranging because of the following:

  • [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]:  173K < 215K = bad for USD related to EUR for example (the price is moved on the way to EUR)
  • [USD - Unemployment Rate] 5.1% < 5.2% = good for USD related to EUR (downtrend for EUR/USD pair).

That is why ranging.

==========

EURUSD M5: 100 pips ranging price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event:



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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2012.12.31 06:29

3 Stoch MaFibo, M1 timeframe.
We may trade this template:

  

 

And some explanation about the lines/indicators:

 


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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2012.12.31 06:43

And some more:

 

 

So, those images can tell all about how to trade/use this setup.
How to load it in MT5?

See template attached on this post https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/9773#comment_396614
How to use template file?
Place template file to template folder (to C:\Program Files\MetaTrader 5\Profiles\Templates for example), after that - open chart (M5 in our example), right mouse click on any place of the chart and select Templates - [your/our template] (3stoch_black or 3stoch_white in our example). 

 


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Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2013.01.02 15:58

So, concerning trend following way -

uptrend if

- signal line (dotted line) is below main line  
&&
- both lines are growing
&&
- both lines are above level 50

&& is and in mql5 programming language (read more here) :)

============

downtrend:

- signal line (dotted line) is above main line  
&&
- both lines are falling
&&
- both lines are below level 50

============ 

Why level 50? No idea. It may be any level but 50 is usually used for that.
Example - if you ask the coder to program EA for you telling him that "the signal is filtering by stochastics indicator" so the coder will use trend following way of fintering with the level 50.
 

 


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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.07 09:34

EUR/USD forecast: sideway trading for today and breaking the levels for tomorrow (based on efxnews article)

United Overseas Bank made a forecast for EUR/USD for today expecting the ranging market condition between 1.1105 and 1.1205:

  • "Expect sideway trading for today, likely between 1.1105 and 1.1205."
  • "As long as 1.1255 is not taken out, we continue to expect an eventual move lower to 1.1015."

Let's evaluate this forecast to estimate the levels for today and tomorrow.

EUR/USD: ranging for today and break the levels for tomorrow. This pair is ranging between 100-SMA and 200-SMA within the following key levels:

  • 1.1339 key resistance level located above 100-SMA/200-SMA in the primary bullish area of H4 chart;
  • 1.0947 key support level located below 100-SMA/200-SMA in the primary bearish area of the chart.

That means - if the price crosses 1.1339 resistance from below to above so we may see the bullish breakout with the reversal of the price movement to the bullish market condition. If the price crosses 1.0947 support so it may be reversal to the bearish with good breakdown possibility.

Resistance
Support
1.13391.0947
1.1713
1.0807



So, the forecast of UOB may be the correct one but with the following levels: 1.1339/1.0947. By the way, the daily levels for tomorrow are the following: 1.1713 key resistance and 1.0807 key support: the price is ranging between those 1.1713/1.0807 levels, and if the price breaks one of those level - we may see the primary bearish/bullish trend to be continuing/started.

Thus, intraday levels are 1.1339/1.0947, and the levels for daily trading for this week are 1.1713/1.0807. 


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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.07 19:44

Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD - SEB (based on efxnews article)

EUR/USD: Downside risks still persist. "Last week ended with some rather choppy hours post the NFP and the hourly chart indicates either a possible bear triangle or a bear flag in the making. The first alternative points at resuming sellers in the 1.1170’s and latter one closer to 1.12. Both alternatives will be given a bearish confirmation breaking below 1.1090."


EUR/JPY: Should soon run into offers. "Last week ended with another clearly bearish weekly candle, the second consecutive one. On a shorter time frame the market traced, as outlined, out a couple of fresh lows before started to correct some of the latest decline. This corrective move higher is seen primarily ending towards 133.65. Thereafter our focus will again turn to the downside and a resumption of the bear trend."


GBP/USD: A small bounce, then lower again. "The pair reached 1.5170 support on Friday and the much muted reaction from the support is clearly sending a bearish message. The weekly candle also became a good follow through one to the preceding week’s bearish key week reversal. All in all the downside pressure remains high and only a minor bounce should hence be justified from current levels."



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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.08 14:03

Barclays - 'we recommend remaining short EURUSD' (based on efxnews article)


Barclays made a forecast for this week concerning EUR/USD related to funbdamental factors such as the following:

  • "With the last employment report before the September meeting over, we think that markets will square positions ahead of the FOMC decision on September 17. With only a one-third chance of a lift-off at that meeting, we see limited downside risks to the USD in the short term and keep our bullish medium-term view, particularly vs. the EUR and EM currencies."
  • "Market to continue to contemplate further ECB QE: We continue to expect the ECB to announce before year-end an extension of the current QE programme beyond September 2016; this view was encouraged by sizeable downward revisions to the ECB's inflation forecast for 2016 and 2017 to 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively."
  • "As such, we continue to expect further material EUR depreciation and recommend remaining short EURUSD."

Let's evaluate this forecast concerning the technical point of view:

  • Daily price is located below 200 day SMA (blue line on the chart) for the primary bearish and above 100 day SMA for the secondary ranging market condition.
  • The price is crossing 61.8% Fibo support level at 1.1154 from above to below with Fibo support level at 1.0807 as the next bearish target.
  • Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the bearish breakdown to be started.
Thus, Barclaysmay be correct one concerning the keeping the bearish for EUR/USD but in secondary ranging market condition.

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Sergey Golubev, 2014.01.06 18:38

What is the Pip Cost for Gold and Silver?


  1. Gold: Symbol XAU/USD
    The pip cost for 1 ounce of Gold (minimum trade size) is $0.01 per pip.
  2. Silver: Symbol XAG/USD
    The pip cost for 50 ounces of Silver (minimum trade size) is $0.50 per pip

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.09 13:07

BTMU Forecasts for EUR/USD: 1.060 in December 2015 (based on efxnews article)

This pair is on bearish market condition for ranging between Fibo resistance level at 1.1713 and Fibo support level at 1.0850. Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken with 1.0807 resistance level for the bearish trend to be continuing, and the next bearish targets in this case are 1.0520 and 1.0461.

According to the forecast made by Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, this triangle pattern will be broken from above to below together with 1.0807 target by the end of this year, and we may see good bearish breakdown possibilities in the beginning of 2016: the price will break 1.0520/1.0461 support levels by March 2016, and EUR/USD will be at 1.000 in Jun'16.

Pairs
 Q3
Sep'15
 Q4
Dec'15
Q1
Mar'16
 Q2
Jun'16
EUR/USD
1.120
1.060
1.020
1.000


Many int'l institutions made a prediction for the EUR/USD to be 1.000 or less than that at year-end but this is the first forecast which was clarified the values of this pair in detailed timing way: we will see the EUR/USD to be 1.000 in June 2016 only.