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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.09 18:03
Goldman Sachs about Next Week's FOMC: 'the first hike is not likely to come until December' (based on efxnews article)
Goldman Sachs made some forecast concerning USD related to the FOMC meeting which will be held next week on Thursday:
Just to remind about next week's FOMC metting:
2015-09-17 19:00 GMT (or 21:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate]
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)if hawkish > expected = (for USD in our case)
[USD - FOMC Statement] = It's the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about
monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates
and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic
conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses
the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.
[USD - Federal Funds Rate]
= Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at
Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Short term
interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.10 08:43
Credit Agricole for EUR/USD: 1.12 by the end of Q3, 1.06 by the end of the year, and 1.04 by the end of Q1 of 2016 (based on efxnews article)
Credit Agricole made an other forecast for EUR/USD: 1.12 by the end of
Q3, 1.06 by the end of the year, and 1.04 by the end of Q1 of 2016. It
means that old forecast (made few day ago) was updated for 1.12 target
for this pair by the end of September. This correction was made because
of fundamental factors changed: Credit Agricole is expecting dovish ECB
(ECB Meetings) and
hawkish Fed (FOMC).
Just to remind the general rules for fundamental news events concerning the speeches:
That means that Credit Agricole is expecting more bearish for EUR/USD in the medium term forecast:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.11 05:55
USD trading strategy going into next week's FOMC meeting - Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)
Morgan Stanley estimated thew probability for Fed hike in September
vs December meetings, and it was stated that a 30% chance only of a hike
in September, so there is more chance to expect this events in December
this year. And in this case, it may be more opportunity for EUR and JPY
with related to USD: those pairs may be in bullish condition during the
September 17th meeting for example.
Thus, there are 3 basic scenarios concerning Fed hike:
Base-Case: December. "The Fed has entered its
pre-meeting silent period, which means there are no speakers on the
agenda to move market expectations of the first hike before the
September 17th meeting. Comments from the Fed thus far suggest the
central bank wants to make the first hike as well flagged as possible
and avoid surprising the market. With markets pricing in less
than a 30% chance of a hike in September, it therefore is unlikely that
the Fed will hike now. Indeed, our US economists have maintained their
view for a December hike."
Get It Done: "A hike next Thursday would lead to
accelerated EM weakness, in our view. Current account surplus and net
foreign asset-supported FX such as EUR and JPY may rally should the Fed
hike; these currencies have developed an increasingly tight inverse relationship with the performance of risky assets."
Or Wait: "The Fed delaying action would be in line with current market pricing. In this scenario, USD
would likely soften somewhat and the Fed would remain data-dependent in
the statement and in the Chair’s press conference. Nonetheless, USD
dips still represent buying opportunities as the reason for USD strength is mainly USD-supportive repatriation flows."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.11 16:35
Any USD downside should stay limited from the current levels - Credit Agricole (based on efxnews article)
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.13 17:59
EUR/USD Forecast Sep. 14-18 (based on forexcrunch article)
to enjoy a nice recovery, ending the week on a positive note. Is it set
for more gains? The big event of the week in Europe are the ZEW survey
and inflation data. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week
and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Talk from the ECB on QE wasn’t news for the euro and didn’t really
have a negative effect. Data-wise, we had little in the way of
surprises, but the strong German trade balance reminded us that the euro
is bid. In the US, we had some good JOLTs news but disappointing
consumer confidence ahead of the big event: the all important Fed meeting coming now. Will the mounting tension result in an explosion of the pair?
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.14 07:53
Morgan Stanley made weekly forecast for EUR in
fundamental/technical mixed way expecting bearish EUR (based on efxnews article):
"We remain bearish on EUR over the medium term but see reason for some
support in the near term. EURUSD continues to be inversely correlated
with risk appetite. This suggests that as global volatility remains high
and risk appetite weak then there is reason to see EUR supported.
Draghi sounded very dovish at the recent ECB press conference so, should
the voices from the central bank suggest more aggressive monetary
action, then this would be a risk factor to our near-term view."
the technical point of view - EUR/USD is located below
100-SMA/200-SMA for ranging within 1.1713 key resistance and 1.0807 key
support levels for crossing symmetric triangle pattern for the
trend to be continuing. Intermediate support level as the nearest
bearish target is 1.0925, and the key bearish target is 1.0807. The
situation with EUR/USD may be described on the following way:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.14 13:53
EUR/USD: Levels & Targets by United Overseas Bank (based on efxnews article)
United Overseas Bank estimated the nearest bullish target for EUR/USd as 1.1475 with 1.1250/55 as the bearish reversal level.
situation is mostly related to intra-day trading: as we see from H4
chart - the EURUSD is on bullish trend with 1.1379 as the next target;
and the reversal bearish target is 1.1253. It means the following:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.14 18:32
Trade Ideas For EUR/USD and GBP/USD by UBS Group (based on efxnews article)
UBS Group made a trading forecast for EUR/USd and GBP/USD for today and tomorrow:
EUR/USD: "traded bid last week and ended with a short
squeeze. Flows were mixed but demand improved as the weekend got closer
so it seems that the market is happy to play the pair from the short
side, although conviction is low. All eyes are on the FOMC meeting this
week, and activity could be limited until then."
GBP/USD: "Cable has found good support around the
200-day moving average and with the positive tone from the BoE last
week, this bounce should continue. This is a busy week for data, with
CPI, earnings, unemployment, and retail sales due. Buy dips, with a stop
below 1.5350, for a test of 1.5500 and 1.5550."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.15 07:44
EUR/USD Tech Review: 'correcting the to 1.11' by Nomura; 'it isn’t very clear' by Goldman Sachs (based on efxnews article)
Nomura made a forecast for EUR/USD stated about correction for this pair to 1.11 :
By the way, Goldman Sachs noted that the setup in EUR/USD isn’t very clear:
as we see from daily chart - the price is located near above 200 day
SMA with 1.1372 resistance level to be ready for two scenarios to be
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.15 18:06
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
EURUSD M5: 30 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event: