Forex Weekly Outlook Nov. 9-13 (based on forexcrunch article)
The US dollar surged across the board as a December rate hike looks very real. Employment data from the UK and Australia, speeches from Mark Carney and Mario Draghi, German GDP data , US Retail sales stand out. These are the main events on forex calendar.
The US Non-Farm Payrolls report for October showed strong growth with a 271,000 payrolls increase following two straight months of lukewarm gains. The unemployment rate declined to a 7-1/2-year low of 5.0%, demonstrating domestic strength. This robust reading may signal the well-awaited rate hike announcement in the Fed’s next meeting in December which was also evident in recent Fed talk. Another encouraging piece of news is the wage gains and robust consumer spending, showing an upbeat picture of the economy on the verge of the fourth quarter.
USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD: Outlooks For The Week - Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)
EUR: Bearish"We have revised our EUR forecasts lower and now look for 1.06 at year
end. Our economists now expect another 10 bp cut in the deposit rate,
an addition to QE, and an extension of the asset purchase programme. All
of this should be EUR negative. We believe the deposit rate cut is
likely to be the most currency negative, as it should incentivize
foreign investors to fund in EUR and domestic investors to seek returns
USD: Bullish"We believe USD could start to see inflows related to investment,
rather than repatriation of assets. While the latter does not require
tighter Fed policy, the former will benefit from a higher probability of
Fed hikes. Indeed, this is likely to support US assets and boost USD."
GBP: Bearish"Markets have taken the BoE dovishly as they revised CPI forecasts and
started to get concerned about the impact of EM growth on the UK
economy. On top of this, there is a downside risk to near-term inflation
as the strong trade-weighted GBP (ERI) puts downward pressure on import
prices. The focus is now on EM data again and its impact on commodity
prices and general market volatility as GBP remains sensitive to all of
The Royal Bank of Scotland made a forecast for EUR/USD telling that "The cleanest way to play is still short EUR/USD." (based on article). So, let's made very short review of intra-day situation for this pair.
The price (H4 timeframe) is on bearish market condition located below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA on the bearish area of the chart. Price is ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:
Thus, The Royal Bank of Scotland is correct one concerning the trend: this is bearish anyway in intra-day basis for the pair.
Technical Overview: Will EUR/USD Break 1.0461 Support? (adapted from article)
BNP Paribas updated their forecast related to the EUR/USD price
movement in long-term situation - they told the following: "we are
somewhat sceptical on the EURUSD’s ability to test and break the
previous 2015 low of around 1.0460." Well ... let's evaluate this
forecasting situation with technical point of view.
price is on bearish market condition for the crossing key support level
at 1.0704 from above to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.
This is bearish breakdown which is going on for right now: Chinkou Span
line crossed the price to below for the bearish breakdown to be
continuing. And the nearest bearish target is 1.0461. So, there are 2
scenarios concerning the price movement in long-term situation:
Points. The price is breaking S2 YR1 Pivot at 1.0672 from above to
below with 1.0461 as the next target. And there are two similar
scenarios for the price movement related to Pivot Points:
The Strategy: watch the price to break 1.0672with possible sell trade with 1.0461 as a target.
Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD - SEB (adapted from efxnews article)
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made a technical forecast for telling that EUR/USD will go as high as 1.08 before 1.0655 support level will be broken by the price from above to below. As we see from the chart below - the price is on bearish market condition for the ranging between the following key support/resistance levels:
Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price with 1.0707 support level to be broken for the bearish trend to be continuing up to 1.0674 as the nearest bearish target.
The Strategy: watch W1 price to break 1.0707 support level for possible sell trade with 1.0674 as the target.
Technical Outlooks For USD/JPY - SEB (adapted from efxnews article)
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made a technical forecast for USD/JPY for telling
the following: 'below 122.65/45 would target 121.60'. It means that SEB
is predicting the price to be bounced from Fibo resistance level at
123.63 with 23.6% Fibo target at 121.86.
Anyway, there are the following scenarios for the price movement concerning the key support/resistance levels:
The Strategy. Watch the price to break 123.63 resistance level for possible buy trade with below 125.85 as the target.
EURUSD Long-Term Outlook - bearish ranging near S2 Pivot level (adapted from the article)
Credit Suisse made a forecast for EUR/USD for 2016 estimated 1.00 as
the first target and 0.85 as the second one. Let's evaluate this
forecast with the technical point of view.
EUR/USD: bearish ranging near S2 Pivot level.
This pair is on bearish market condition for the ranging within S1
Pivot at 1.1337 and S2 Pivot at 1.0672: the price is on bearish
breakdown for now with 1.0672 level crossing from above to below for
0.9599 as the next bearish target.
Where i can see conditions?
Forex Weekly Outlook November 16-20 (based on the article)
The US dollar had a mixed week after the NFP. Japan GDP data, Inflation data from the UK, the US and Canada and a rate decision in Japan stand out. These are the main events on forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the market-movers for this week.
A long list of Fed speakers basically left expectations for a Fed hike unchanged, thus leaning towards a move in December. Yellen remained silent. In the euro-zone. Data was mixed, with a disappointment in retail sales but upbeat consumer confidence also a positive JOLTs report, Draghi reiterated his desire to act in December: provide more easing. In Australia, the jobs report was excellent and falling oil prices weighed on the Canadian dollar.