Fundamental Analysis by Credit Agricole: what we’re watching (based on efxnews article)
Credit Agricole made a fundamental forecasts related to the price of
some pairs movement during some high impacted news events for the week.
EUR/USD Forecast Nov. 2-6 (based on forexcrunch article)
EUR/USD looked for a new direction after the big blows eventually closing around the same levels. Final PMIs dominate the first week of November. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Germany’s IFO data came out a bit mixed when looking at the different components, but inflation is on the rise. The debate in the ECB is raging on. In the US, a hint about a December hike from the Fed sent the pair falling and dipping under 1.09, but also in the US, things aren’t that clear, especially as growth is weak. It’s going to get even busier.
Trading Weekly Review - Sell EUR/GBP (based on efxnews article)
Deutsche Bank adviced to sell EUR/GBP this week based on some fundamental weekly forecast:
Trading Ideas for EUR/USD - bearish key month reversal (based on efxnews article)
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made some technical analysis for EUR/USD:
EUR/USD: secondary correction is started "Mr. Market did
chose to follow the alternate correction path and prices accordingly
moved up in close proximity to the recent correction high, 1.1098. With
the rejection lower there’s a relatively high probability that the minor
correction now is over and done hence lower levels waiting around the
corner. The monthly close below 1.1087 also created a bearish key month
reversal (here seen as a bearish continuation pattern given that it
didn’t come from a correction high)."
is on bearish market condition with the ranging within 1.1072 resistance
and 1.0896 Fibo support level. Ascending triangle pattern is formed by
the price to be crossed from below to above, but the price broke
trendline to above for the secondary correction to be started.
H4 price will break 1.0896 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing.If H4 price will break 1.1072
resistance level so the bear market rally will be started with the good
possibility to the reversal of the price movement from the primary
bearish to the primary bullish market condition.If not so we may see the ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : bearish
Trading Weekly Review - Sell EUR/USD (based on efxnews article)
Credit Suisse adviced to sell EUR/USD this week based on the following some fundamental factors:
technical point of view - the price for the pair broke 100 day SMA and
200 day SMA from above to below for the primary bearish market
condition: the price was bounced off Fibo support level at 1.0896 to
start ranging around 23.6% Fibo level. By the way, descending triangle
pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below, and RSI
indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing, so the mist
likely scenario for this pair for the week is to continuing with bearish
trend with the possible breakdown possibility.
Major Currencies Forecasts - Goldman Sachs (based on efxnews article)
Please find the latest updated currency forecasts made by Goldman Sachs:
Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD by SEB (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: Time for a short break? "The rejection from the
previously broken trend line did trigger the anticipated selling and
the pair accordingly yesterday continued to decline. Now having arrived
at the equality point (between the current decline and the wave 1 one)
and with prices outside the 55d Bollinger bands there’s a slightly
elevated risk that we will see a corrective bounce higher before
continuing lower. On a grander scale the current down-wave, three, is
expected to terminate in the 1.05-area."
EUR/USD into Payrolls (based on efxnews article)
Some major int'l financial institutions are making fundamental forecasts concerning NFP for today. For example:
From the technical point of view - the intra-day price is on bearish market condition located below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA.
I think, the most real scenario for today is the following: intra-day price will be in secondary ranging market condition within the primary bearish.
EURUSD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Non-Farm Payrolls and 154 pips price movement (based on bls.gov article)
2014-11-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
[USD - Non-Farm
Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the
previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an
important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a
majority of overall economic activity.
nonfarm payroll employment increased by 271,000 in October, and the
unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.0 percent, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in
professional and business services, health care, retail trade, food
services and drinking places, and construction.