Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 120

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.05 15:23

SEB - Outlooks For EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD (based on efxnews article)

EUR/USD: "Continued losses yesterday brought the prices down through the 1.0921 support an event that adds additional bearishness to our outlook. The next and stronger support is located in the 1.0819-1.0808 range (May and July lows) and should be thoroughly tested within shortly."

EUR/JPY: "Repeatedly rejected from the combined 55/233d ma bands the pair again seems to be making way for a test of the utterly important 133.30/10 support. So remaining below 136.17 should keep us in the bear camp looking for additional losses near term."

AUD/USD: "The primary correction target, the rechecking of the previously broken trend-line, was fulfilled yesterday with the pair moving up to 0.7428 before stalling and rolling over to the downside. A move below yesterdays mid body point, 0.7322, will further enhance downside forces and below 0.7260 new trend lows will be confirmed."

NZD/USD: "Underpinned by another poor dairy auction yesterday (index down -9.3%) the Kiwi continued its decline. A completed three wave pattern (a-b-c) correction does also weigh on prices making a new trend low look like a done deal."


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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.06 12:35

UBS - Trade Ideas For EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD (based on efxnews article)

EUR/USD: "Stay flexible ahead of the US payrolls with a slight bias to sell rallies. Watch support at 1.0880/1.0820 and resistance at 1.0940-50/1.0990."

USD/CHF: "Only a shocking US NFP tomorrow can change this dollar bullish tone. We still like buying on dips to 0.9740-60 as long as USDCHF trades above 0.9720."

AUD/USD: "had a rollercoaster ride during trading in Asia on Australian jobs data. Stick to playing the pair from the short side, adding on rallies with a stop above 0.7430 and targeting an eventual move towards 0.7000."


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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.07 09:19

The Royal Bank of Scotland - USD Into Payrolls (based on efxnews article)

The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) made forecast concerning the following coming high impacted news events:

  • Non-Farm Payrolls (or Non-Farm Employment Change) - they made a forecast for non-farm payroll growth of 250K in July, above the listed consensus of 225K.


Just to remind that previous NFP data was 223K, and forecasting for now is 225K for example, so if RBS is looking for 250K as an actual data - it means to be more bearish for EURUSD. Because in case of NPF: actual > forecast = good for currency (for US Dollar in our case). So, it means: more bearish for EURUSD with some key support levels to be broken.

  • "After 2Q growth in the Employment Cost Index (ECI, a broad measure of compensation) underwhelmed sharply, we think the monthly average hourly earnings growth could look more positive, as even a trend like gain would boost the y/y rate. (RBSe 2.2% y/y vs. consensus 2.3%). While we think the employment report will be broadly positive, our economists think a pickup in the labour force could push the unemployment rate up from 5.3% to 5.4%."
  • "We think strong payroll gain should support the USD, particularly after FOMC officials have placed a much greater focus on the cumulative recovery in the labour market than on concerns emanating from abroad."


And just about the levels:

  • if we look at H4 Ichimoku chart so we see that the price is on ranging bearish with 1.0873 support level;
  • if we look at M5 price action chart - the support level to be brokeb by price will be 1.0910.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.07 11:00

Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on dailyfx article)

Another 225K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may spur greater demand for the greenback and spark a near-term sell-off in EUR/USD should the fresh batch of data heighten speculation for a Fed rate hike at the September 17 meeting.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

Despite the unanimous vote to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) at the July 29 meeting, signs of a stronger recovery may generate a greater dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and we may see a growing number of central bank officials talk up bets for a September liftoff should the employment report boost the outlook for growth and inflation.

However, waning business sentiment along with the ongoing weakness in private-sector spending may drag on job growth, and a dismal employment report may encourage the Fed to further delay its normalization cycle especially as Chair Janet Yellen looks for a further improvement in labor dynamics.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Employment Increases 225K or Greater

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: NFP Report Falls Short of Market Expectations
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD


  • Long-term outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish amid the divergence in the policy outlook, but the pair may continue to consolidate over the near-term as it remains stuck in the wedge/triangle formation from earlier this year.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1180 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

June 2015 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
EURUSD M5: 66 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Payrolls news event:




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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.07 13:25

Société Générale - What's Best To Sell Against The Dollar (based on efxnews article)


  • "The case for being long dollars is now mostly about the US. That is relevant in the case of the Australian dollar. The RBA this week removed the reference to wanting a weaker currency from its monetary policy statement."
  • "There’s a bit of upside in USD/JPY given its correlation with US rates, but if the driver of dollar strength is risk aversion and capital repatriation, the yen won’t be the biggest loser."
  • "At the other extreme, the most obvious short is still the Chinese Renminbi, but that it is not a freely floating currency. Its strength is a reason to be wary of commodities, rather than a trade in itself."
  • "And a reason to be short at least one of the commodity currencies: I choose NZD in G10."
  • "But the stand-out overvalued currency on this chart is the Swiss Franc, and EUR/CHF is finally edging the SNB’s way. The technical analysis section of this weekly suggests longs in GBP/CHF."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.08 10:14

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, AUDUSD, GBPUSD. USDJPY and GOLD (based on dailyfx article)

US Dollar - "This week docket isn’t shabby for market movers – retail sales, UofM sentiment survey, upstream inflation reports, small business optimism and a July labor conditions aggregate – but none of the offerings carry the mark of a decisive view changer. With the market still not fully pricing a Fed hike until January while the Fed sees two this year, there is premium to tap. Yet, it will be difficult to tap this week."

GBPUSD - "Upcoming UK Jobless Claims figures will be of special interest as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney made clear that interest rate policy will depend on economic data. Current consensus estimates predict that the Claimant Count Rate—the percentage of eligible workforce participants claiming unemployment benefits—remained near multi-decade lows through July. Just as importantly, economists expect that Average Weekly Earnings growth remained near its highest in five years through June. Downside surprises in either could force fairly important losses in the British Pound."


AUDUSD - "A handful of Chinese releases is also noteworthy. July’s Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers are due to cross the wires. As with the US, data flow out of the behemoth East Asian economy has improved in recent months. At minimum, this hints that the probability for particularly dour results that raise concerns about negative spillover to Australia is comparatively low relative to the alternative."


USDJPY - "With USD/JPY snapping back from a fresh weekly of 125.06, the lack of following-through behind the NFP reaction raises the risk for a larger pullback, and the exchange rate may face a further consolidation in the days ahead should we see another mixed batch of data prints coming out of the U.S. economy. On the other hand, key developments pointing to a stronger recovery may put the dollar-yen on a more bullish course and may spur a test of 2015 highs (125.84) as the Fed keeps the door open for a September liftoff."


GOLD - "From a technical standpoint gold has continued to hold above critical support into 1067/70 where the median-line off the 2014 high converges on basic trendline support dating back to June 2006 and the 100% extension of the decline off the yearly high. Weekly momentum has also continued to hold above the 30-threshold and as noted last week, gold remains vulnerable for a near-term recovery while above this region. Note that although prices are lower for a seventh consecutive week, gold has been unable to test the 5-year low made back on July 24th. Key resistance remains at 1145/50 with only a break above the upper median-line parallel off the yearly high invalidating the broader downside bias (bearish invalidation~ 1175). A break of the lows targets the 2010 low at 1044 backed by a key longer-term Fibonacci confluence lower down at 975/80."



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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.09 07:36

Morgan Stanley Next Week Forecast - USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD (based on efxnews article)

USD: Bullish
"We stick to our bullish USD view. Recent comments from Fed Governor Lockhart suggest that September is still very much in play, and as markets bring the timing of the first hike forward, this should support USD."


EUR: Bearish
"The EUR has been difficult to trade recently given that European stories such as Greece or the ECB have gone away from the market’s focus. Instead we expect EURUSD to trade lower on more optimism on the Fed. The US side of the story will dominate trading this pair."



JPY: Neutral
"We remain bullish on JPY for a few reasons. First, we continue to see signs of domestic reflation that could bring the BoJ closer to tightening. Second, with commodity currencies falling, the risk environment may be pressured, which will also support JPY. The main risk here would be a China stimulus which supports risk and weighs on JPY."



GBP: Neutral
"The inflation report was more dovish than the market was expecting, causing GBPUSD to move below 1.55. For the path of GBPUSD over coming weeks we put most emphasis on the USD side. With Lockhart putting a September rate hike firmly in the market’s mind now, as rate expectations rise, this should support the USD side."



AUD: Bearish
"Commodities are likely to weigh on AUD, and we retain our medium term bearish AUD view. However, we see two possible legs of support in the near term. First, the RBA has raised the bar for cuts, and as the market digests this, the currency may benefit. Second, any growth supportive fiscal stimulus in China would likely benefit AUD the most within the G10 space. We would look to sell on rallies."



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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.10 08:01

The Royal Bank of Scotland - After the BoE’s "Super Thursday" (based on efxnews article)

  • "While headline employment slightly missed relative to consensus, the unemployment rate held steady and underemployment rate edged down further."
  • "After the BoE’s “Super Thursday” left the impression that an early 2016 hike (long our base case) is more likely than a late-2015 rate hike, the FOMC appears to reclaiming the top spot on the G10 “hawkish league table” that it held for much of late 2014 and early 2015, and we think that can continue to benefit the USD."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.10 17:09

Barclays for EURUSD - The Decision Is Taken (based on efxnews article)

Barclays evaluated the recent NFP data and made the conclusion that FOMC has already decided about what to tell during the next meeting. Barclays watched the job data and established the correlation between job market and FOMC decisions concerning the inyerest rate to be changed.

  • "We believe, in line with the FOMC’s rhetoric, that the expected path of the fed funds rate for the next couple of years is probably more important than the actual date of the lift-off. In that regard, wage developments will continue to be monitored by markets to assess the speed of the normalization cycle."
  • "We maintain high conviction in further EURUSD downside in the context of steadily improving US data and a likely September Fed rate hike that remains underpriced."
Thus, the banks is really expecting the interest rate to be changed in September, and this news event depends on the job market data situation.