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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.05 15:23
SEB - Outlooks For EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD (based on efxnews article)
losses yesterday brought the prices down through the 1.0921 support an
event that adds additional bearishness to our outlook. The next and
stronger support is located in the 1.0819-1.0808 range (May and July
lows) and should be thoroughly tested within shortly."
EUR/JPY: "Repeatedly rejected
from the combined 55/233d ma bands the pair again seems to be making way
for a test of the utterly important 133.30/10 support. So remaining
below 136.17 should keep us in the bear camp looking for additional
losses near term."
AUD/USD: "The primary correction
target, the rechecking of the previously broken trend-line, was
fulfilled yesterday with the pair moving up to 0.7428 before stalling
and rolling over to the downside. A move below yesterdays mid body
point, 0.7322, will further enhance downside forces and below 0.7260 new
trend lows will be confirmed."
NZD/USD: "Underpinned by
another poor dairy auction yesterday (index down -9.3%) the Kiwi
continued its decline. A completed three wave pattern (a-b-c) correction
does also weigh on prices making a new trend low look like a done deal."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.06 12:35
UBS - Trade Ideas For EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: "Stay flexible ahead of the US payrolls with a
slight bias to sell rallies. Watch support at 1.0880/1.0820 and
resistance at 1.0940-50/1.0990."
USD/CHF: "Only a shocking US NFP tomorrow can change
this dollar bullish tone. We still like buying on dips to 0.9740-60 as
long as USDCHF trades above 0.9720."
AUD/USD: "had a rollercoaster ride during trading in
Asia on Australian jobs data. Stick to playing the pair from the short
side, adding on rallies with a stop above 0.7430 and targeting an
eventual move towards 0.7000."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.07 09:19
The Royal Bank of Scotland - USD Into Payrolls (based on efxnews article)
The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) made forecast concerning the following coming high impacted news events:
Just to remind that previous NFP data was 223K,
and forecasting for now is 225K for example, so if RBS is looking for
250K as an actual data - it
means to be more bearish for EURUSD. Because in case of NPF: actual >
forecast = good for currency (for US Dollar in our case). So, it means:
more bearish for EURUSD with some key support levels to be broken.
And just about the levels:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.07 11:00
Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on dailyfx article)
Another 225K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may spur greater
demand for the greenback and spark a near-term sell-off in EUR/USD
should the fresh batch of data heighten speculation for a Fed rate hike
at the September 17 meeting.
Why Is This Event Important:
Despite the unanimous vote to retain the zero-interest rate policy
(ZIRP) at the July 29 meeting, signs of a stronger recovery may generate
a greater dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and
we may see a growing number of central bank officials talk up bets for a
September liftoff should the employment report boost the outlook for
growth and inflation.
However, waning business sentiment along with the ongoing weakness in
private-sector spending may drag on job growth, and a dismal employment
report may encourage the Fed to further delay its normalization cycle
especially as Chair Janet Yellen looks for a further improvement in
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Employment Increases 225K or Greater
June 2015 U.S. Non-Farm PayrollsEURUSD M5: 66 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Payrolls news event:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.07 13:25
Société Générale - What's Best To Sell Against The Dollar (based on efxnews article)
EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 02.08 - 09.08: ranging within key levels for direction
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.07 14:45
EURUSD M5: 90 pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.08 10:14
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, AUDUSD, GBPUSD. USDJPY and GOLD (based on dailyfx article)
- "This week docket isn’t
shabby for market movers – retail sales, UofM sentiment survey, upstream
inflation reports, small business optimism and a July labor conditions
aggregate – but none of the offerings carry the mark of a decisive view
changer. With the market still not fully pricing a Fed hike until
January while the Fed sees two this year, there is premium to tap. Yet,
it will be difficult to tap this week."
- "Upcoming UK Jobless Claims figures will be of
special interest as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney made clear that
interest rate policy will depend on economic data. Current consensus
estimates predict that the Claimant Count Rate—the percentage of
eligible workforce participants claiming unemployment benefits—remained
near multi-decade lows through July. Just as importantly, economists
expect that Average Weekly Earnings growth remained near its highest in
five years through June. Downside surprises in either could force fairly
important losses in the British Pound."
- "A handful of Chinese releases is also noteworthy.
July’s Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers are due to cross
the wires. As with the US, data flow out of the behemoth East Asian
economy has improved in recent months. At minimum, this hints that the
probability for particularly dour results that raise concerns about
negative spillover to Australia is comparatively low relative to the
- "With USD/JPY snapping back from a fresh weekly of
125.06, the lack of following-through behind the NFP reaction raises the
risk for a larger pullback, and the exchange rate may face a further
consolidation in the days ahead should we see another mixed batch of
data prints coming out of the U.S. economy. On the other hand, key
developments pointing to a stronger recovery may put the dollar-yen on a
more bullish course and may spur a test of 2015 highs (125.84) as the
Fed keeps the door open for a September liftoff."
- "From a technical standpoint gold has continued to
hold above critical support into 1067/70 where the median-line off the
2014 high converges on basic trendline support dating back to June 2006
and the 100% extension of the decline off the yearly high. Weekly
momentum has also continued to hold above the 30-threshold and as noted
last week, gold remains vulnerable for a near-term recovery while above
this region. Note that although prices are lower for a seventh
consecutive week, gold has been unable to test the 5-year low made back
on July 24th. Key
resistance remains at 1145/50 with only a break above the upper
median-line parallel off the yearly high invalidating the broader
downside bias (bearish invalidation~ 1175). A break of the lows targets
the 2010 low at 1044 backed by a key longer-term Fibonacci confluence
lower down at 975/80."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.09 07:36
Morgan Stanley Next Week Forecast - USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD (based on efxnews article)
USD: Bullish"We stick to our bullish USD view. Recent comments from Fed Governor
Lockhart suggest that September is still very much in play, and as
markets bring the timing of the first hike forward, this should support
EUR: Bearish"The EUR has been difficult to trade recently given that European
stories such as Greece or the ECB have gone away from the market’s
focus. Instead we expect EURUSD to trade lower on more optimism on the
Fed. The US side of the story will dominate trading this pair."
JPY: Neutral"We remain bullish on JPY for a few reasons. First, we continue to see
signs of domestic reflation that could bring the BoJ closer to
tightening. Second, with commodity currencies falling, the risk environment may be
pressured, which will also support JPY. The main risk here would be a
China stimulus which supports risk and weighs on JPY."
GBP: Neutral"The inflation report was more dovish than the market was expecting,
causing GBPUSD to move below 1.55. For the path
of GBPUSD over coming weeks we put most emphasis on the USD side. With
Lockhart putting a September rate hike firmly in the market’s mind now,
as rate expectations rise, this should support the USD side."
AUD: Bearish"Commodities are likely to weigh on AUD, and we retain our medium term
bearish AUD view. However, we see two possible legs of support in the
near term. First, the RBA has raised the bar for cuts, and as the market
digests this, the currency may benefit. Second, any growth supportive
fiscal stimulus in China would likely benefit AUD the most within the
G10 space. We would look to sell on rallies."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.10 08:01
The Royal Bank of Scotland - After the BoE’s "Super Thursday" (based on efxnews article)
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.10 17:09
Barclays for EURUSD - The Decision Is Taken (based on efxnews article)
Barclays evaluated the recent NFP data and made the conclusion that
FOMC has already decided about what to tell during the next meeting.
Barclays watched the job data and established the correlation between
job market and FOMC decisions concerning the inyerest rate to be