Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.31 05:37
Where To Buy? - Credit Suisse (based on efxnews article)
CS runs a limit order to buy EUR/USD at 1.1108, with a stop at 1.1018 and a target at 1.1520.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.31 12:41
EUR/USD To Recover Friday Losses (based on actionforex article)
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.31 16:30
EURUSD back above 1.1200 after probe below (based on forexlive article)
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.01 12:54
Non-Farm Payrolls: actual data forecasting related to September hike - BNP Paribas (based on efxnews article)
2015-09-04 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Payrolls]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Payrolls] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Paribas made the comments on Friday's NFP related to September Fed hike
and actual data forecasting. As we know - the forecast data is 220K,
and if actual data is more than 220K for example so the USD to be more
stronger in this case. Concerning EUR/USD, we can see that it may be
bearish condition to be ibncrease for this pair during and immediate
after this high impacted news event:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.01 18:11
Trade Ideas For EUR/USD, AUD/USD - UBS (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: "has traded bid since yesterday and it looks
like 1.1200 is going to act as a base. We expect selling interest to
show up on any move closer to 1.1400, so play the intraday moves and
fade a 70 to 80 pip move in either direction, with stops at 1.1150 and
AUD/USD: "continues to trade sideways.We still see
AUDUSD heading lower, but are a bit cautious as the pair seems to
struggle below 0.7100. This could be due to seasonal demand, and we will
have to see if the sharp bounce in oil will support other commodities.
Sell rallies between 0.7180 and 0.7250, with a stop above 0.7325."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.02 07:40
Deutsche Bank: bullish condition for EUR/USD during and immediate after NFP (based on efxnews article)
Paribas made the forecast for NFP to be more than 220K on Friday: "Our economists expect an above-consensus 230K increase in jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 5.3%."
By the way, Deutsche Bank is expecting for NFP to be significantly below 220K expectation:
So, we can expect the following concerning EUR/USD for example:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.02 17:31
Trade Ideas For EUR/USD by UBS (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: "The market seems rangy and uncertain at the
moment, but the ECB meeting on Thursday and US jobless figures on Friday
may provide some clarity. Fade 70 to 80 pip moves in either direction
today, with stops at 1.1145 and 1.1425."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.03 11:10
Trading the News: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)
Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to retain
its current policy in September, the fresh updates coming out of the
Governing Council may trigger a selloff in EUR/USD should the committee
show a greater willingness to expand/extend its quantitative easing (QE)
Why Is This Event Important
Dovish rhetoric accompanied by a downward revision in the ECB’s growth
& inflation forecast is likely to dampen the appeal of the Euro, and
central bank President Mario Draghi may talk up bets for additional
monetary support in an effort to further insulate the fragile recovery
Nevertheless, we may get more of the same from the ECB as the
non-standard measures work through the real economy, and the near-term
bound in EUR/USD may gather pace in September should the central bank
endorse a wait-and-see approach.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Shows Greater Willingness for Larger/Longer QE Program
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.03 15:15
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners
must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export
demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.
"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $41.9 billion in July, down $3.3 billion from $45.2 billion in June, revised. July exports were $188.5 billion, $0.8 billion more than June exports. July imports were $230.4 billion, $2.5 billion less than June imports."
EURUSD M5: 166 pips price movement by USD - Trade Balance news event:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.04 07:27
The Royal Bank of Scotland: Non-Farm Employment Change and basic trading scenarios (based on efxnews article)
The Royal Bank of Scotland evaluated some scenarios concerning NFP for today (September 4 at 13:30 GMT).
As we know - Non-Farm
Payrolls is the most high impacted news event which can move the price
for the pairs and estimate the direction of the trend for the next week
for example.Just to remind about this news event:==========
2015-09-03 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
EURUSD M5 : 44 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Payrolls news event: