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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 30.08 - 06.09: correction for ranging - page 2

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By the way, on my chart: descending triangle pattern was formed, and the price is located near 200 day SMA on the border between the bearish and the bullish market condition on the chart:


It means: "waiting for direction"

... and those levels were not broken for this week (this is from the first post of the thread):

If D1 price will break 1.0807 support level on close D1 bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition.
If D1 price will break 1.1713 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging between the levels.

Sergey Golubev:

It means: "waiting for direction"

waiting for what? waiting for fundamental news events which will finally move the price to bearish or to the bullish condition (in day trading).

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.02 17:31

Trade Ideas For EUR/USD by UBS (based on efxnews article)


EUR/USD: "The market seems rangy and uncertain at the moment, but the ECB meeting on Thursday and US jobless figures on Friday may provide some clarity. Fade 70 to 80 pip moves in either direction today, with stops at 1.1145 and 1.1425."


This week will be hot,after this we will know where price will go )))

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.03 11:10

Trading the News: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)

Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to retain its current policy in September, the fresh updates coming out of the Governing Council may trigger a selloff in EUR/USD should the committee show a greater willingness to expand/extend its quantitative easing (QE) program.

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important

Dovish rhetoric accompanied by a downward revision in the ECB’s growth & inflation forecast is likely to dampen the appeal of the Euro, and central bank President Mario Draghi may talk up bets for additional monetary support in an effort to further insulate the fragile recovery in Europe.

Nevertheless, we may get more of the same from the ECB as the non-standard measures work through the real economy, and the near-term bound in EUR/USD may gather pace in September should the central bank endorse a wait-and-see approach.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Shows Greater Willingness for Larger/Longer QE Program

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the policy announcement to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bearish Euro trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; need at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.
Bullish EUR Trade: President Draghi Continues to Endorse Wait-and-See Approach
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same strategy as the bearish euro trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily


  • Despite expectations for a greater deviation in the policy outlook, need a break of the near-term bullish trends in price & RSI to favor a further decline in EUR/USD.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.03 15:15

2015-09-03 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]
  • past data is -45.2B
  • forecast data is -43.2B
  • actual data is -41.9B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

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"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $41.9 billion in July, down $3.3 billion from $45.2 billion in June, revised. July exports were $188.5 billion, $0.8 billion more than June exports. July imports were $230.4 billion, $2.5 billion less than June imports."

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EURUSD M5: 166 pips price movement by USD - Trade Balance news event:



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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.04 07:27

The Royal Bank of Scotland: Non-Farm Employment Change and basic trading scenarios (based on efxnews article)

The Royal Bank of Scotland evaluated some scenarios concerning NFP for today (September 4 at 13:30 GMT).

  • "250k to 300k:  Long USD/CHF."
  • "200k to 250k (Base-Case): Short EUR/USD."
  • "150k to 200k: Short USD/CAD."
  • "150k or below: Short USD/JPY."

As we know - Non-Farm Payrolls is the most high impacted news event which can move the price for the pairs and estimate the direction of the trend for the next week for example.
Just to remind about this news event:

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2015-09-03 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 215K
  • forecast data is 215K
  • actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

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EURUSD M5 : 44 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Payrolls news event:



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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.04 12:08

Trading NFP by Credit Agricole (based on efxnews article)

Credit Agricole expects NFP to be 220K and unemployment rate of 5.3%:

  • "A NFP print in line of stronger than consensus accompanied by solid weekly earnings' gains will suggest that lift-off cannot be postponed for too long. Given that the investors have pared back significantly their rate hike expectations for September and October, a stronger NFP print will also have a more pronounced market impact in our view. We expect the USD to do well under this outcome with EUR and risk-correlated among the biggest losers."
  • "A weak print, eg a NFP print below 190K and a soft weekly earnings' gain (essentially a sub 2% YoY growth), could lead the markets to pare back lift-off bets. We suspect that while negative for USD, the overall impact may be less pronounced and could see investors selling USD against JPY, EUR and CHF yet again. Any relief rally in risk-correlated currencies should prove short-lived."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.04 15:14

2015-09-04 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

2015-09-04 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Rate]

if actual < forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

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This is ranging price movement during this high impacted news events. Ranging because of the following:

  • [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]:  173K < 215K = bad for USD related to EUR for example (the price is moved on the way to EUR)
  • [USD - Unemployment Rate] 5.1% < 5.2% = good for USD related to EUR (downtrend for EUR/USD pair).

That is why ranging.

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EURUSD M5: 100 pips ranging price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event:



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