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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.23 19:46
EUR - Fundamental Outlook for the Current Week by Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)
Morgan Stanley is considering the this is a good time to be with EUR forecasting bullish for the next few weeks:
"We believe EUR is likely to outperform over the next few weeks. The
risk-off environment is likely to drive repatriation flows, which should
be EUR supportive. In addition, many risky holdings were funded in EUR,
and the unwind of these positions should support EUR. With EUR not
being used as funder in the near term, it should receive support from
its current account surplus."
Let's evaluate this situation with technical points of vew:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.24 08:38
EURUSD Forecasts by Danske Bank (based on efxnews article)
Danske Bank is forecasting the ranging market condition for EUR/USD up to August 2016: the price will be ranging between 100 day SMA and 200 day SMA within 1.10/1.13 support/resistance channel:
Thus, according to the Danske Bank - we should expect the bullish for daily EUR/USD only in the middle of the next year by the price to be turned to 1.15 which is located on the bullish area of daily chart.Concerning weekly price for this pair so the price will be in total ranging condition within the primary bearish: all support/resistance levels (incl 1.25 'reversal' resistance level which is on the border between bearish and bullish on the weekly chart) are located on the bearish zone. So, Danske Bank expects for the EUR/USd to be in bearish market condition in long term situation for example.
EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 23.08 - 30.08: weekly breakout
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.24 15:47
This is daily/weekly breakout to be going on for right now.
1.2199 is the next bullish target.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.25 18:23
Experts react to Black Monday (based on telegraph.co.uk article)
Markets now believe Federal Reserve won't rise rates until 2016, and this is what experts are talking about:
at Barclays - expectation of a Fed rate rise to the first half of next
year: "Given the uncertainty around the current global outlook, the
of the rate hike seems more uncertain than usual. Should this episode of
financial market volatility prove transitory, the FOMC could raise
rates in December. On the other hand, if the volatility proves durable
or reveals greater than expected weakness in global activity, the FOMC
may push the first rate hike beyond March."
Economists at Capital Economics - September rate hike: "There are no signs of any major downturn in the US economy, economic
growth in China still appears to slowing rather than collapsing and
emerging markets are not about to endure a repeat of the 1997/98 Asian
crisis. The current bout of market turmoil, if it continues, might
persuade the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates in September.
Since that volatility doesn’t reflect any genuine economic slump,
however, we wouldn’t be surprised if it proved short-lived leaving the
way open for the Fed to begin raising rates at some point this year."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.26 11:01
United Overseas Bank believes in bullish on EUR/USD within 1-3 weeks (based on efxnews article)
United Overseas Bank (UOB) maintains a bullish forecast for EUR/USD within the next 3 weeks. United Overseas Bank previously known as United Chinese Bank or UCB and headquartered in Singapore is a financial int'l holding company. UOB was founded in 1935 and having the branches in most South-East Asian countries. The UOB Group estimated for EUR/USD to break 1.1710/1.1715 in the near future:
On the daily basis, UOB Group evalute the EUR/USD to be in ranging market condition within 1.1425/1.1580.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.26 21:33
EUR/USD: Topped Or Not (based on efxnews article)
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.27 10:48
Trading News Events: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (based on dailyfx article)
An upward revision in the 2Q U.S. Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) report may boost the appeal of the greenback and spark a
larger pullback in EUR/USD as it fuels speculation for a September Fed rate hike.
Why Is This Event Important:
The Fed may stay on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015 as the
central bank still anticipates a stronger recovery to materialize over
the coming months, and data prints encouraging an improved outlook for
growth & inflation may spur a greater dissent within the committee
as the economy gets on a more sustainable path.
However, easing job growth paired with the slowdown in building activity
may drag on growth rate, and signs of a slower recovery may spur a
further delay of the Fed’s normalization cycle as the central bank
struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Growth Rate Expands Annualized 3.2% or Greater
1Q 2015 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
EURUSD M5: 42 pips range price movement by USD - GDP news event:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.27 14:47
EURUSD M5: 36 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.27 13:33
Trade Ideas For EUR/USD (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: "Liquidity is very poor, although yesterday was
slightly better than earlier in the week. Play the intraday moves, and
expect sellers to come in on every move close to yesterday's break of
1.1466. Buyers will be lined up ahead of 1.1200."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.28 08:46
EUR/USD: Is A Break Of 1.12 On The Cards Today? (based on efxnews article)
UOB Group made a technical analysis for today:
EUR/USD - Neutral: "Pull-back has room to extend towards the next
support at 1.1105. While we expected a pull-back, the pace has been more
rapid than anticipated. The current EUR weakness appears incomplete and could extend towards the next support 1.1105."
Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.30 16:25
USD, EUR, CAD, AUD, NZD For The Coming Week by Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)
Morgan Stanley is continuing weekly forecast for the pairs based on
fundamental analysis related to the direction of the trading.
USD: Bullish."We see scope for USD strength to continue. However, we distinguish
between the performance of USD against low yielding funding currencies,
where we see less scope for depreciation, and against commodity
currencies and EM, where we expect strength to be focused. Even the
risks of a more dovish Fed are unlikely to drive USD to depreciate
against this latter group of currencies, as growth prospects in the rest
of the world remain below those of the US."
EUR: Bullish."We see scope for EUR to make further gains over the next few weeks as
risk remains bid amidst an environment of uncertainty. EUR was used as a
funding currency for many risk-on trades; as these are unwound the
currency should see support. The main risk from our bullish EUR view
stems from the upcoming ECB meeting, where there is a risk of a more
dovish tone from the central bank in light of recent currency
CAD: Bearish."Bearish CAD is one of our higher conviction trades in G10. We believe
that there is a risk the central bank will need to take a more dovish
tone, weighing on the currency. Latest comments from the BoC that
macroprudential tools are addressing financial instability suggest that
monetary policy will be free to focus on low growth and inflation. An
environment of weak oil prices is unlikely to offer support to CAD as
AUD: Bearish."A weak commodity picture and concerns about growth in Asia are likely
to weigh on AUD in the near term, and we would expect it to continue to
underperform. Ongoing weakness in capex highlights the risks surrounding
the currency. The main upside risks stem from the central bank, which
has been more hawkish, most recently highlighting the risks of running
easy monetary policy for too long. We will watch the upcoming RBA
"With macro prudential measures expected to further reduce heightened
financial system risk and help moderate the Auckland housing market, the
RBNZ has left the door open for more significant easing. Weak
commodities prices, a struggling dairy sector, and soft global demand
should weigh on the small, open New Zealand economy. We expect NZD to
continue depreciating as both growth and rate differentials move against