Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 123

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.23 19:46

EUR - Fundamental Outlook for the Current Week by Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)

Morgan Stanley is considering the this is a good time to be with EUR forecasting bullish for the next few weeks:

"We believe EUR is likely to outperform over the next few weeks. The risk-off environment is likely to drive repatriation flows, which should be EUR supportive. In addition, many risky holdings were funded in EUR, and the unwind of these positions should support EUR. With EUR not being used as funder in the near term, it should receive support from its current account surplus."


Let's evaluate this situation with technical points of vew:

  • Weekly price is still on bearish arket condition for trying to cross 1.1466 resistance for the bear market rally to be started. The reversal level is 1.2568, and if weekly price will break this reversal level from below to above so it will be the global reversal of the price movement to the primary bullish market condition.
  • Daily price is on reversal to the bullish with 1.1466 as the nearest resistance level located in the bullish area of the chart. The price is breaking 200 day SMA, and if 1.1466 resistance will be broken so the price will be reversed to the bullish market condition.


Anyway, Morgan Stanley believes in bullish dollar so we will get the bearish EUR/USD at year-end anyway.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.24 08:38

EURUSD Forecasts by Danske Bank (based on efxnews article)

Danske Bank is forecasting the ranging market condition for EUR/USD up to August 2016: the price will be ranging between 100 day SMA and 200 day SMA within 1.10/1.13 support/resistance channel:


Pair
Q3
September'15
 Q4
November'15
Q1
February'16
Q3
August'16
EUR/USD
1.130
1.100
1.100
1.150

Thus, according to the Danske Bank - we should expect the bullish for daily EUR/USD only in the middle of the next year by the price to be turned to 1.15 which is located on the bullish area of daily chart.



Concerning weekly price for this pair so the price will be in total ranging condition within the primary bearish: all support/resistance levels (incl 1.25 'reversal' resistance level which is on the border between bearish and bullish on the weekly chart) are located on the bearish zone. So,
Danske Bank expects for the EUR/USd to be in bearish market condition in long term situation for example.


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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 23.08 - 30.08: weekly breakout

Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.24 15:47

This is daily/weekly breakout to be going on for right now.

1.2199 is the next bullish target.




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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.25 18:23

Experts react to Black Monday (based on telegraph.co.uk article)

Markets now believe Federal Reserve won't rise rates until 2016, and this is what experts are talking about:

Economists at Barclays - expectation of a Fed rate rise to the first half of next year: "Given the uncertainty around the current global outlook, the timing of the rate hike seems more uncertain than usual. Should this episode of financial market volatility prove transitory, the FOMC could raise rates in December. On the other hand, if the volatility proves durable or reveals greater than expected weakness in global activity, the FOMC may push the first rate hike beyond March."

Economists at Capital EconomicsSeptember rate hike: "There are no signs of any major downturn in the US economy, economic growth in China still appears to slowing rather than collapsing and emerging markets are not about to endure a repeat of the 1997/98 Asian crisis. The current bout of market turmoil, if it continues, might persuade the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates in September. Since that volatility doesn’t reflect any genuine economic slump, however, we wouldn’t be surprised if it proved short-lived leaving the way open for the Fed to begin raising rates at some point this year."

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) - delay raising rates until 2016: "The FOMC should defer its first increase in policy rates until there are greater signs of wage or price inflation than are currently evident. Based on staff’s macroeconomic forecast, and barring upside surprises to growth and inflation, this would imply a gradual path of policy rate increases starting in the first half of 2016."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.26 11:01

United Overseas Bank believes in bullish on EUR/USD within 1-3 weeks (based on efxnews article)

United Overseas Bank (UOB) maintains a bullish forecast for EUR/USD within the next 3 weeks. United Overseas Bank previously known as United Chinese Bank or UCB and headquartered in Singapore is a financial int'l holding company. UOB was founded in 1935 and having the branches in most South-East Asian countries. The UOB Group estimated for EUR/USD to break 1.1710/1.1715 in the near future:

  • "The low of 1.1395/00 yesterday held just above our 1.1360 stop-loss. Despite the sharp rebound from the low, the recent strong momentum has been dented and this pair is likely in a short-term consolidation phase that may last for a few days."
  • "As long as 1.1360 is not taken out, a break above the 1.1710/15 high on Monday cannot be ruled out even though the odds for such a move appears to be quite low at this stage."


On the daily basis, UOB Group evalute the EUR/USD to be in ranging market condition within 1.1425/1.1580.


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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.26 21:33

EUR/USD: Topped Or Not (based on efxnews article)

  • Morgan Stanley: "EUR/USD has not topped yet."
  • SocGen: "If sustained above the triangle limit of 1.1385/70, the recovery should be persistent."
  • Barclays: "We are neutral given stretched daily studies and look for signs of a top to re-establish our overall bearish view. We would only buy on a break above 1.1710 for a short-term upside squeeze towards the 1.1810/75 area. From there we would look for signs of a top to move lower in range."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.27 10:48

Trading News Events: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (based on dailyfx article)

An upward revision in the 2Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may boost the appeal of the greenback and spark a larger pullback in EUR/USD as it fuels speculation for a September Fed rate hike.

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

The Fed may stay on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015 as the central bank still anticipates a stronger recovery to materialize over the coming months, and data prints encouraging an improved outlook for growth & inflation may spur a greater dissent within the committee as the economy gets on a more sustainable path.

However, easing job growth paired with the slowdown in building activity may drag on growth rate, and signs of a slower recovery may spur a further delay of the Fed’s normalization cycle as the central bank struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: Growth Rate Expands Annualized 3.2% or Greater

  • Need to see red, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a short trade on EURUSD.
  • If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: 2Q GDP Report Falls Short of Market Expectations
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily



  • Near-term breakout in EUR/USD keeps the focus on the topside targets as the RSI retains the bullish momentum; will retail a constructive view along as the pair holds above former-resistance around 1.1180 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement).
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

1Q 2015 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

EURUSD M5: 42 pips range price movement by USD - GDP news event:



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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.27 13:33

Trade Ideas For EUR/USD (based on efxnews article)


EUR/USD: "Liquidity is very poor, although yesterday was slightly better than earlier in the week. Play the intraday moves, and expect sellers to come in on every move close to yesterday's break of 1.1466. Buyers will be lined up ahead of 1.1200."


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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.28 08:46

EUR/USD: Is A Break Of 1.12 On The Cards Today? (based on efxnews article)


UOB Group made a technical analysis for today:

EUR/USD - Neutral: "Pull-back has room to extend towards the next support at 1.1105. While we expected a pull-back, the pace has been more rapid than anticipated. The current EUR weakness appears incomplete and could extend towards the next support 1.1105."


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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.30 16:25

USD, EUR, CAD, AUD, NZD For The Coming Week by Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)

Morgan Stanley is continuing weekly forecast for the pairs based on fundamental analysis related to the direction of the trading.

USD: Bullish.
"We see scope for USD strength to continue. However, we distinguish between the performance of USD against low yielding funding currencies, where we see less scope for depreciation, and against commodity currencies and EM, where we expect strength to be focused. Even the risks of a more dovish Fed are unlikely to drive USD to depreciate against this latter group of currencies, as growth prospects in the rest of the world remain below those of the US."

EUR: Bullish.
"We see scope for EUR to make further gains over the next few weeks as risk remains bid amidst an environment of uncertainty. EUR was used as a funding currency for many risk-on trades; as these are unwound the currency should see support. The main risk from our bullish EUR view stems from the upcoming ECB meeting, where there is a risk of a more dovish tone from the central bank in light of recent currency depreciation."



CAD: Bearish.
"Bearish CAD is one of our higher conviction trades in G10. We believe that there is a risk the central bank will need to take a more dovish tone, weighing on the currency. Latest comments from the BoC that macroprudential tools are addressing financial instability suggest that monetary policy will be free to focus on low growth and inflation. An environment of weak oil prices is unlikely to offer support to CAD as well."

AUD: Bearish.
"A weak commodity picture and concerns about growth in Asia are likely to weigh on AUD in the near term, and we would expect it to continue to underperform. Ongoing weakness in capex highlights the risks surrounding the currency. The main upside risks stem from the central bank, which has been more hawkish, most recently highlighting the risks of running easy monetary policy for too long. We will watch the upcoming RBA meeting closely."


NZD: Bearish.

"With macro prudential measures expected to further reduce heightened financial system risk and help moderate the Auckland housing market, the RBNZ has left the door open for more significant easing. Weak commodities prices, a struggling dairy sector, and soft global demand should weigh on the small, open New Zealand economy. We expect NZD to continue depreciating as both growth and rate differentials move against the Kiwi."