Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 201

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.23 08:10

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Construction Work Done and pips range price movement

2016-11-23 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Construction Work Done]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Construction Work Done] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of construction projects completed.

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From official report:

  • "The trend estimate for total construction work done fell 3.1% in the September quarter 2016."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total construction work done fell 4.9% to $46,147.8m in the September quarter."
  • "The trend estimate for total building work done fell 0.7% in the September quarter."
  • "The trend estimate for non-residential building work done fell 3.1% and residential building work rose 0.6%."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate of total building work done fell 5.7% to $25,886.6m in the September quarter."

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AUD/USD M5: pips range price movement by Australian Construction Work Done news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.23 09:41

Quick Technical Overview - Dollar Index: daily bullish with 101.48 resistance (adapted from the article)

Dollar Index daily chart: bullish. The price is located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart. The price is testing 101.48 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging bullish.

  • "Recent comments noted that “Monday’s (11/14) close settled above channel resistance, indicating potential for upside acceleration (could be a ‘blow-off’). The importance of the break through resistance is accentuated by the fact that channel resistance (former now) was support earlier this week (on 11/17 dip).” DXY hasn’t disappointed, having traded through the 2015 highs. Former highs at 99.83 and 101.51, along with former channel resistance, should be watched for support."


Resistance
Support
101.4898.69
N/A
95.86

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.23 11:37

Trading News Events: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (adapted from dailyfx)

  • "A 1.7% rebound in U.S. Durable Goods Orders may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spark a near-term decline in EUR/USD as it puts increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise the benchmark interest rate at the last 2016-meeting on December 14."
  • "Fed Funds Futures are pricing a greater than 90% probability for a December rate-hike as ‘the Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen,’ and Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may continue to normalize monetary policy in the year ahead should the data print reinforce central bank expectations for a ‘moderate’ recovery. However, another unexpected decline in demand for large-ticket items may drag on interest-rate expectations as private-sector consumption remains one of the leading drivers of growth and inflation."


Bullish USD Trade: Demand for Large-Ticket Items Rebound 1.7% or Greater

  • "Need red, five-minute candle following the report to consider a short EUR/USD trade."
  • "If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, short EUR/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit."

Bearish USD Trade: U.S. Durable Goods Orders Report Disappoints

  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade."
  • "Implement same strategy as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction." 


Daily price is on located below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish area of the chart. The price is trying to test 1.0568 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 1.0759 resistance level on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0568 support on close daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.23 15:35

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GOLD (XAU/USD) and Dax Index: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2016-11-23 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From Market Watch article: Durable-goods orders see jet-fueled 4.8% gain in October

  • "Orders for long-lasting goods made in the U.S. soared 4.8% in October largely because of stronger demand for commercial aircraft, but business investment is still not showing much spark."
  • "Although these orders have picked up slightly in the fall, they are 4% lower compared to a year ago. Businesses have skimped on investment for years, undermining the ability of the U.S. economy to break out of a straitjacket that has limited it to 2% annual growth or less." 

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EUR/USD M5: 49 pips range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: bearish price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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Dax Index M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.23 23:42

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Meeting Minutes and 19 pips range price movement

2016-11-23 19:00 GMT | [EUR - FOMC Meeting Minutes]

[EUR - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

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From rttnews article: The Fed is widely expected to raise rates at the next FOMC meeting, which is scheduled for December 13th and 14th.

  • "Most Federal Reserve officials expect it to become appropriate to raise interest rates relatively soon, according to the minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee."
  • "The minutes noted that the expectation for a near-term rate hike is contingent on incoming data providing some further evidence of continued progress toward the Fed's objectives." 

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EUR/USD M5: 19 pips range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news event

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.24 07:51

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is below 100 SMA/200 SMA on the bearish area of the chart for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 1.0657 resistance level located in the beginning of the local uptrend as the secondary bear market rally within the primary ebarish condition to be started, and
  • 1.0524 support level located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish trend to be resumed.


Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for this pair to be bearish trend to be continuing with 1.0455/60 as the next nearest bearish target:

"After several days of lethargic trading, we noted in the Chart of the Day update yesterday that EUR has to see a ‘break lower soon’ or the risk of a short-term low would increase quickly. The timing of the breach of the December 2015 low of 1.0540 bodes well for our bearish view and from here, the next most obvious level to aim for is at the 2015 low of 1.0455/60 (seen in March). All in, the bearish view that started early last week is intact until 1.0650 is taken out (adjusted from 1.0700)."


  • If daily price breaks 1.0745 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If daily price breaks 1.0524 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 1.0449 nearest bearish target.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.24 08:18

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is above 100 SMA/200 SMA on the bullish ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.2500 resistance level located above 200 SMA in area of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1.2359 support level near 200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.


Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for this pair to be continuing with the ranging condition withn 1.2300/1.2600 levels waiting for direction:

"As highlighted yesterday, despite the strong rebound from the Monday’s low of 1.2313, it is too early to expect to a sustained up-move. The strong pull-back yesterday reinforces our current neutral view and we continue to expect GBP to trade choppily, likely within a broad 1.2300/1.2600 range."


  • If daily price breaks 1.2589 resistance level on close bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If daily price breaks 1.2301 support level on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary ebarish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.24 10:46

China's stocks were higher; Hang Seng index dropped 0.4 percent (based on the article)


  • "China's stocks were higher on Thursday, with the blue-chip CSI300 index on track to rise for the fourth day as raw material shares powered ahead on the back of soaring metal prices."
  • "The Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.1 percent, to 3,244.21 points, while Shenzhen's start-up board ChiNext fell 0.3 percent."
  • "Shares in China's major base metal producers, including Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet and Jiangxi Copper rose sharply as futures prices of copper, zinc and nickel jumped, maintaining strong upward momentum."
  • "The Hang Seng index dropped 0.4 percent, to 22,597.88 points, while the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index lost 0.2 percent, to 9,646.98."
  • "The prospect of rapid capital flight from emerging markets is a key risk factor for investors in Asia, especially under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies. Traders are betting on a faster pace of monetary tightening by the Fed as Trump's policies are expected to boost domestic economic growth and push inflation higher."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.24 16:40

EUR/USD Establishes New Low At 1.0517 (based on the article)


  • "EUR/USD dropped to new reaction lows in Wednesday’s trading as the dollar advanced to new rally highs following the release of a strong US Durable Goods report. In today’s trading, the pair established a new reaction low at 1.0517 and is currently rebounding from that low, holding near the 1.0568 level, up 0.16%."
  • "The current low in EUR/USD represents a test of key support at the December 2015 corrective bottom at 1.05237. Not far below this level is the major corrective bottom established in March 2015 at the 1.04590 level. A drop below the key zone of support would confirm a breakdown from a multi-month trading range, calling for further losses in the months ahead."
  • "Should EUR/USD advance beyond first resistance, the next level to watch for potential resistance is the November 22nd high at 1.0660. Given the strength exhibited by the dollar and ongoing expectations for a rate increase at the December FOMC meeting, a move above this level of resistance by EUR/USD is not expected. At present, fed fund futures are pricing in a 93.5% probability of an interest rate increase at the December FOMC meeting."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.25 07:31

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade and 25 pips range price movement

2016-11-24 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -1394M
  • forecast data is -950M
  • actual data is -846M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From official report:



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NZD/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by NZ Trade Balance news event

 


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