Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.17 12:55

GOLD (XAU/USD) Daily Bearish Breakdown With 1.1219 Support To Continue (adapted from the article)

Daily price broke 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal levers to be reversed to the primary bearish area of the chart. For now, the price is on testing 1,1219 support level to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing with 1,211 and 1,200 nearest daily bearish target to re-enter.

  • "The swing-low on Monday of this week came-in right at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the December low to the July high at a price of $1,210.85. But just below that level is a more critical zone of potential support at $1,200, as this is the 38.2% retracement of the Bretton Woods Fix of $35/ounce up to the 2011 high of $1,920. Perhaps more importantly, this level has been recently confirmed as support with an inflection marking the lows in May."
  • "Since that support inflection at $1,210, sellers have begun to display a bit of tepidness. This has allowed prices to trickle back-up to the $1,230-level, and short-term price action is now finding resistance on the projection of the short-term trend-line that we looked at above. But sellers have been unable to re-take control of Gold prices over the past two days."
  • "So while the near-term trend is still very much bearish here, seller’s conviction appears to be waning, and should the rampant strength seen in the U.S. Dollar of recent begin to recede, the long side of Gold can become attractive again. Of particular interest to this theme will be resistance levels at $1,230 and $1,250. The level at $1,230 has shown as near-term swing-resistance, and $1,250 is a Fibonacc`i level that had also provided the swing-low during the Brexit referendum."


Most likely scenarios for the daily price movement are the following: the price will be continuing with the bearish breakdown by 1,200 psy level to be broken, or the ranging bearish condition will be started for the price to be waiting for the direction of the trend based on the future fundamental factors for example.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.23 15:35

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GOLD (XAU/USD) and Dax Index: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2016-11-23 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From Market Watch article: Durable-goods orders see jet-fueled 4.8% gain in October

  • "Orders for long-lasting goods made in the U.S. soared 4.8% in October largely because of stronger demand for commercial aircraft, but business investment is still not showing much spark."
  • "Although these orders have picked up slightly in the fall, they are 4% lower compared to a year ago. Businesses have skimped on investment for years, undermining the ability of the U.S. economy to break out of a straitjacket that has limited it to 2% annual growth or less." 

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EUR/USD M5: 49 pips range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: bearish price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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Dax Index M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.29 18:23

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GOLD (XAU/USD) and Dax Index: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2016-11-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report:

"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in October, increased significantly in November. The Index now stands at 107.1 (1985=100), up from 100.8 in October. The Present Situation Index increased from 123.1 to 130.3, while the Expectations Index improved from 86.0 last month to 91.7."

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EUR/USD M5: 37 pips range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events


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XAU/USD M5: range pips price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events


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Dax Index M5: range pips price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.03 05:00

Quick Technical Overview - GOLD (XAU/USD): daily bearish to be continuing by 1170/1160 support levels to be broken (adapted from the article)

D1 price is located below 100-day SMA/200-day SMA in the bearish area of the chart by 1170/1160 support levels to be broken for the bearish trend to be continuing.

  • "Gold prices continue to rally from this morning’s low of $1,166.50, as the US Dollar is set to finish the week lower on worse than expected NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) figures. NFP totals for November were expected at 180k, but released modestly lower at 178k. The biggest surprise was October’s totals being revised lower by a reported -19k. Technically if the US Dollar continues to retreat on this data, this may signal a shift in momentum for commodities markets including the price of gold."


  • If the price breaks 1270.08 resistance level on close daily bar to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish market condition will be started.
  • If daily price breaks 1170.11 support level on close bar to below so the bearish trend will be continuing with 1160.63 target to re-enter.
  • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1270.081170.11
N/A
1160.63

Trend:

D1 - bearish

 

GOLD Is in a Down Trend with a Dead Cross Appeared and with Declining Momentum
Gold Is In a Downtrend

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.18 12:32

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Although the rate-hike was widely anticipated, slight upward revisions to the Fed’s growth & inflation forecasts were overshadowed by and uptick in the committee’s interest rate dot plot with officials now calling for 3 hikes next year. The release prompted a repricing off expectations, fueling a massive rally in the U.S. dollar as lower yielding ‘haven’ assets like gold came under pressure. That said, the first hike isn’t expected until the second half of the year and the recent rally in the greenback may be a bit overdone here. (Keep in mind we came into 2016 expecting three hikes and got just one). Although the implications for higher rates are likely to weigh on yellow metal, prices are responding to a key technical threshold which may offer a near-term reprieve to the most recent bout of selling."


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