Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 132

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.05 14:02

Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD by SEB (based on efxnews article)

EUR/USD: Time for a short break? "The rejection from the previously broken trend line did trigger the anticipated selling and the pair accordingly yesterday continued to decline. Now having arrived at the equality point (between the current decline and the wave 1 one) and with prices outside the 55d Bollinger bands there’s a slightly elevated risk that we will see a corrective bounce higher before continuing lower. On a grander scale the current down-wave, three, is expected to terminate in the 1.05-area."

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.06 07:12

EUR/USD into Payrolls (based on efxnews article)

Some major int'l financial institutions are making fundamental forecasts concerning NFP for today. For example:

• Deutsche Bank stated that EUR/USD price may reach 1.05 as a target;
• Morgan Stanley are talking about intra-day ranging market condition for today for this pair;
• The Royal Bank of Scotland evaluated 3 scenarios soncerning NFP figures: 200k and above, 175k to 200k and 175k or below. And it was made  one conclusion only: Short EUR/USD.

From the technical point of view - the intra-day price is on bearish market condition located below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA.

• If the price will continuing with the bearish condition for today during anf after NFP so 1.0807 may be the nearest bearish target in this case, and the next targets are 1.0461 and year-end target as 1.0059.
• If the price will start with local uptrend as the bear market rally today so the nearest target is 23.6% Fibo resistance at 1.0897 and Fibo reversal resistance at 1.1094 located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish on the chart.

I think, the most real scenario for today is the following: intra-day price will be in secondary ranging market condition within the primary bearish.

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.06 14:53

EURUSD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Non-Farm Payrolls and 154 pips price movement (based on bls.gov article)

2014-11-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 142K
• forecast data is 181K
• actual data is 271K according to the latest press release

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] =  Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

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EURUSD M5: 154 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event

M5 chart

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.09 08:45

USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD: Outlooks For The Week - Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)

EUR: Bearish
"We have revised our EUR forecasts lower and now look for 1.06 at year end. Our economists now expect another 10 bp cut in the deposit rate, an addition to QE, and an extension of the asset purchase programme. All of this should be EUR negative. We believe the deposit rate cut is likely to be the most currency negative, as it should incentivize foreign investors to fund in EUR and domestic investors to seek returns overseas."

USD: Bullish
"We believe USD could start to see inflows related to investment, rather than repatriation of assets. While the latter does not require tighter Fed policy, the former will benefit from a higher probability of Fed hikes. Indeed, this is likely to support US assets and boost USD."

GBP: Bearish
"Markets have taken the BoE dovishly as they revised CPI forecasts and started to get concerned about the impact of EM growth on the UK economy. On top of this, there is a downside risk to near-term inflation as the strong trade-weighted GBP (ERI) puts downward pressure on import prices. The focus is now on EM data again and its impact on commodity prices and general market volatility as GBP remains sensitive to all of these factors."

[myeloids]

Hi, 

Quick question!. I came across a report about the oil price. I need to ask if I am investor and looking for an long term investment in Oil companies. But recently I looked over the oil price forecast 2016 report stating there are chance of increase in the oil prices in the coming period. I wanted to know how much feasible it is for me to invest in the oil sector seeing the oil prices are going to vary in the coming year and should I consider investing in the same or look for any other investments?

[Sergey Golubev]

I do not know ... the oil price is more rely on fundamental factors than on technical analysis (more than EUR/USD for example). If you see from the image below - the price is on bearish for ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

• 42.18 key support level located on the bearish area of the chart; if the price breaks this level from above to below so the bearish trend will be continuing up to the new 'bottom' (new support) forming; and
  
• 54.00 key resistance level located below and near Ichimoku cloud on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish on the chart.

There are some more key resistance levels located on the bullish area of the chart: 66.32 and 69.59. I named those levels as 'reversal' levels which means the following: if the price breaks those levels (especially 69.59) from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish may be started.

• if the price will break 42.18 on close bar so you can open sell trade;
  
• if the price breaks 54.00 so the investment in oil may be considered;
• if the price will break 69.59 so many traders will start to invest (open buy trade) in oil because the price will be started with good long-term uptrend.

But the price movement for oil is more related to the fundamental news events than to Ichimoku indicator sorry :) so, will see ...

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.09 18:29

The Royal Bank of Scotland made a forecast for EUR/USD telling that "The cleanest way to play is still short EUR/USD." (based on article). So, let's made very short review of intra-day situation for this pair.

The price (H4 timeframe) is on bearish market condition located below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA on the bearish area of the chart. Price is ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

• 1.0704 key support level, and
• 1.0884 key resistance level.

• If the price will break 1.0704 support from above to below on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
• if the price will break 1.0884 resistance level from below to above so we may see the bear market rally to be started.
• If not so the price will be moved within the levels.
  

Thus, The Royal Bank of Scotland is correct one concerning the trend: this is bearish anyway in intra-day basis for the pair.

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.10 11:08

Technical Overview: Will EUR/USD Break 1.0461 Support? (adapted from article)

BNP Paribas updated their forecast related to the EUR/USD price movement in long-term situation - they told the following: "we are somewhat sceptical on the EURUSD’s ability to test and break the previous 2015 low of around 1.0460." Well ... let's evaluate this forecasting situation with technical point of view.

Ichimoku analysis.
Weekly price is on bearish market condition for the crossing key support level at 1.0704 from above to below for the bearish trend to be continuing. This is bearish breakdown which is going on for right now: Chinkou Span line crossed the price to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing. And the nearest bearish target is 1.0461. So, there are 2 scenarios concerning the price movement in long-term situation:

• the price is ranging within 1.0461 support and 1.1713 resistance levels, or
• the price is breaking 1.0461 support level from above to below on the close bar for example.
  

Pivot Points.
The price is breaking S2 YR1 Pivot at 1.0672 from above to below with 1.0461 as the next target. And there are two similar scenarios for the price movement related to Pivot Points:

• the price is ranging within 1.0461 support and S1 Pivot at 1.1337, or
• the price is breaking S2 Pivot at 1.0672 from above to below on the close bar.
  

The Strategy: watch the price to break 1.0672with possible sell trade with 1.0461 as a target.

Instrument	S2 Pivot	S1 Pivot	Yearly PP	R1 Pivot
EUR/USD	1.0672	1.1337	1.2665	1.3329

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.11 13:26

Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD - SEB (adapted from efxnews article)

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken made a technical forecast for telling that EUR/USD will go as high as 1.08 before 1.0655 support level will be broken by the price from above to below. As we see from the chart below - the price is on bearish market condition for the ranging between the following key support/resistance levels:

• Fibo support level at 1.0674 located far below 100 day SMA (100 SMA) and 200 day SMA (200 SMA) in the primary bearish area of the chart, and
  
• 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 1.1082 located near 100 SMA/200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish on the chart.
  

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price with 1.0707 support level to be broken for the bearish trend to be continuing up to 1.0674 as the nearest bearish target.

The Strategy: watch W1 price to break 1.0707 support level for possible sell trade with 1.0674 as the target.

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.11.13 07:46

EURUSD Long-Term Outlook - bearish ranging near S2 Pivot level (adapted from the article)

Credit Suisse made a forecast for EUR/USD for 2016 estimated 1.00 as the first target and 0.85 as the second one. Let's evaluate this forecast with the technical point of view.

EUR/USD: bearish ranging near S2 Pivot level. This pair is on bearish market condition for the ranging within S1 Pivot at 1.1337 and S2 Pivot at 1.0672: the price is on bearish breakdown for now with 1.0672 level crossing from above to below for 0.9599 as the next bearish target.

• if the price breaks S2 Pivot at 1.0672 from above to below so the bearish trend will be continuing up to 0.9599 as the next bearish target;
• if the price breaks 0.9599 support level from above to below so we may see the bearish breakdown with S3 Pivot at 0.9344 as the target;
• if the price breaks S1 Pivot at 1.1337 from below to above so we may see the local uptrend as the secondary market rally within the primary bearish market condition;
  
• if not so the price will be moved within the channel.

Instrument	S3 Pivot	S2 Pivot	S1 Pivot	Yearly PP	R1 Pivot
EUR/USD	0.9344	1.0672	1.1337	1.2665	1.3329