Forecast and levels for EURO - page 9

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.28 14:35

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-07-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is 1.4%
  • forecast data is 2.5%
  • actual data is 2.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2 percent (revised)."
  • "The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in the first quarter (revised) (table 4). The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent (appendix table A)."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.01 09:07

EUR/USD - bullish breakout; 1.1844 is the key (based on the article)

Intra-day price on H4 chart is on bullish breakout by the ascending triangle pattern to be crossing to above together with 1.1844 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing. If the price breaks 1.1722 support to below so we may see the secondary correction, and 1.1612 support level is for the primary bearish erversal to be started.


  • "Retail trader data shows 25.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.96 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.06707; price has moved 10.5% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 10.7% higher than yesterday and 14.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.4% higher than yesterday and 6.3% lower from last week."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.01 17:48

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Manufacturing ISM Report On Business and range price movement 

2017-08-01 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. 

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From official report :

  • "The July PMI® registered 56.3 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the June reading of 57.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 60.4 percent, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the June reading of 63.5 percent. The Production Index registered 60.6 percent, a 1.8 percentage point decrease compared to the June reading of 62.4 percent. The Employment Index registered 55.2 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the June reading of 57.2 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 55.4 percent, a 1.6 percentage point decrease from the June reading of 57 percent. The Inventories Index registered 50 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from the June reading of 49 percent. The Prices Index registered 62 percent in July, an increase of 7 percentage points from the June reading of 55 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 17th consecutive month, with a faster rate of increase in July compared with June. Comments from the panel generally reflect expanding business conditions, with new orders, production, employment, backlog and exports all growing in July compared to June, as well as supplier deliveries slowing (improving) and inventories unchanged during the period."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news event 



 

EUR/USD Long-Term Forecast - Bearish Rally to the Bullish Reversal

The pair on monthly chart is located near and below Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is on bear market rally by Ascending triangle pattern to be crossing to above together with 1.1844 resistance level for the rally to be continuing with 1.2227 monthly target for the bullish reversal. Otherwise, the price will be on bearish ranging near bullish reversal.


 

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Something Interesting in Financial Video August 2017

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.04 09:06

Video Manual: NON FARM PAYROLL

Non-farm Payrolls is the assessment of the total number of employees recorded in payrolls.

This is a very strong indicator that shows the change in employment in the country. The growth of this indicator characterizes the increase in employment and leads to the growth of the dollar. It is considered an indicator tending to move the market. There is a rule of thumb that an increase in its value by 200,000 per month equates to an increase in GDP by 3.0%.

  • Release Frequency: monthly.
  • Release Schedule: 08:30 EST, the first Friday of the month.
  • Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

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  • Source : Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • Measures : Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry
  • Usual Effect : Actual > Forecast = Good for currency
  • Frequency : Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends
  • Why Traders Care : Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity
  • Also Called : Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP, Employment Change

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AUDUSD M5 with 45 pips in profit (by equity) for NFP :


EURUSD M5 : 87 pips price movement by NFP news event :






 

EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.05 10:19

EUR/USD - intra-day correction to the bearish reversal; 1.1727 is the key (based on the article)

Intra-day H4 price was bounced from 1.1892 resistance level to below for the secondary correction inside the primary bullish trend to be started. The price is testing 1.1727 support level together with Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition.


  • "Last week, EURUSD started out on a strong note by briefly pushing through the 2010 low at 11876 on two different days, but each day it was unable to sustain above. Leading into the U.S. jobs report on Friday the euro was putting in a rising wedge on the 4-hr timeframe which provided a warning that we could soon see a downdraft if the underside of the pattern was broken. The all-around solid jobs report gave the US dollar a shot in the arm across the board. Not only was the bearish rising wedge triggered, but for the first time since June we saw a lower-low develop on the 4-hr. This puts us on alert for a bearish sequence to begin developing marked by a failure to rally and develop a lower high and then subsequent lower lows. The first area to look for the euro to struggle is roughly where it closed the week near the vicinity of 11775/800, and even if it can rise above this first level of resistance if the trend is to turn lower it shouldn’t be able to gain traction above 11850."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.08 17:09

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CNH: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

2017-08-06 15:00 GMT | [USD - JOLTS Job Openings]

  • past data is 5.70M
  • forecast data is 5.74M
  • actual data is 6.16M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - JOLTS Job Openings] = Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "The number of job openings increased to 6.2 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.4 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 2.1 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four  geographic regions."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by JOLTS Job Openings news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by JOLTS Job Openings news events



 

The EURUSD continues dropping below the 1.1800 level and gets close to the 1.1700 zone, which could act as support, but the pair may go back to its bullish midterm trend.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.11 12:27

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on the article)

An uptick in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may stoke a near-term pullback in EUR/USD as signs of rising inflation puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy in 2017.

What’s Expected:


Why Is This Event Important:

Even though Fed Fund Futures largely price a 50% probability for a move in December, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may stay on course to deliver three rate-hikes in 2017 as central bank officials expect to achieve the 2% target for inflation over the policy horizon. In turn, the FOMC may endorse a more aggressive approach at the next interest rate decision on September 20 especially as the FOMC ‘expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon.’ 

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: Headline and Core Inflation Picks Up in July

  • Need a red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If the market reaction favors a bullish dollar position, sell EUR/USD with two separate lots.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: CPI Report Falls Short of Market Forecasts

  • Need a green, five-minute EUR/USD candle to consider a short dollar trade.
  • Implement the same approach as the bullish dollar position, just in the opposite direction.

EUR/USD Daily


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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event 


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