Forecast and levels for JPY - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.22 10:53

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY - "It’s therefore all-but certain that the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting on April 26/27 will end with all its monetary settings unchanged; potentially a negative factor for the Japanese Yen. After falling steadily this year, USD/JPY has shown signs of stabilizing and even rising modestly over the past few days and that weaker trend for the Yen – partly in response to Kuroda’s comments – could well continue."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.27 08:46

USD/JPY - bear market rally; 112.89 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on bear market rally for 111.77 resistance level to be testing to above for the secondary rally to be continuing. By the way, 112.89 is the key resistance level for daily price, and if the price breaks this level to above so the bullish reversal will be started.


  • "USD/JPY has broken higher by nearly 4% from the April 17 low at 108.13. If you look at the chart below, you can see that the price was already extended lower and a rebound was due. Since then, we’ve had a run higher in specific risky assets like equity and an unwind of bearish EUR positions, which has lifted EUR/JPY higher by ~6.3% in the sametimeframe that USD/JPY has moved higher by ~4%."
  • "Thursday will provide the April Bank of Japan meeting, which is expected to leave rates unchanged and use conservative language on expected inflation has given the stubborn JPY and unsteady commodity prices. The driver for USD/JPY in addition to JPY shorts being pulled off after the first round of the French election is the Tax reform plans announced in the US, which has helped lift the yields as the Federal Reserve is in their quiet period."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.06 13:21

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY - "Next week brings no high-impact Japanese economic announcements. Geo-political risk can be a concern to the continuation of Yen-weakness, as a pick-up in risk aversion around French elections or U.S. politics could create temporary unwind of carry trades using the Yen as a funding currency. But outside of those risks or a larger overall market correction, the Japanese Yen could continue to weaken as the BoJ is one of the more dovish of the major Central Banks at the moment."


 

USDJPY Sell zone


 

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A new target for USD/JPY this and next week

11157115, 2017.05.17 16:12

Although that USD/JPY moves more than 200 pips in the last 2-days GoForecasts.com expects to see USD/JPY at levels of 110.70 in the next two days. Next week the trading target is below 110.00.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.22 15:10

Big Week for Global Markets (based on the article)


EUR/USD Rockets-through 1.1200
"Of recent, we’ve seen a concerted effort from the European Central Bank to allay concerns of QE-taper. We heard Mario Draghi speak to this at the most recent ECB meeting, remarking that the bank hadn’t yet begun discussions around exit strategies; but judging by price action, markets aren’t necessarily buying that idea, as Mr. Draghi’s dovish assurances merely brought on a quick support test, and this was followed by three weeks of strength as EUR/USD has run from a post-ECB low of 1.0839 up to a fresh six-month high of 1.1246."


USD/JPY is Back in the Bearish Channel
"The latter portion of April and the early portion of May saw the return of the USD/JPY bullish theme, as the pair broke out of the downward sloping channel that had governed price action since the open of the New Year. But the reversal on Tuesday and Wednesday broke below a key zone of support comprising the area from 111.61-112.40; and now we can see this ‘zone’ acting as near-term support by capping the highs over the past three trading days."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.30 17:24

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2017-05-30 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 119.4
  • forecast data is 120.1
  • actual data is 117.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report:

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased in April, declined slightly in May. The Index now stands at 117.9 (1985=100), down from 119.4 in April. The Present Situation Index increased marginally from 140.3 to 140.7, while the Expectations Index declined from 105.4 last month to 102.6 in May."
  • “Consumer confidence decreased slightly in May, following a moderate decline in April,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “However, consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions held steady, suggesting little change in overall economic conditions. Looking ahead, consumers were somewhat less upbeat than in April, but overall remain optimistic that the economy will continue expanding into the summer months."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events



 

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Something Interesting in Financial Video June 2017

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.09 09:17

A Trader's Introduction to the Yen

Japan has the second largest economy in the world behind the United States, and an economic history that is the starting point for understanding the fundamentals of the Yen. The first thing that it is important to understand from a fundamental standpoint about the Japanese economy, is that unlike the United States, Japan has very few natural resources. As a result of this, prior to World War II, Japan had a large military force, which it used to occupy Korea, Taiwan, and parts of China. The country saw this as necessary, because of the vulnerable position that its lack of natural resources would have otherwise put it into. 

Like with Europe however, World War II, set the country back considerably from an economic standpoint, as according to wikipedia.org, 40% of its industrial plants and infrastructure were destroyed. While no one would obviously wish for that type of destruction, there was actually a silver lining in this for the Japanese Economy. As so much of their infrastructure had been destroyed, this gave the Japanese the ability to upgrade it significantly, ultimately giving them an edge over victor states, who now had much older factories. 

After World War II the United States occupied Japan, which resulted in the building of a democratic nation, that was dominated by industry, instead of the military. As the Japanese were now putting all of the focus, which had before been put into the military, into rebuilding their industries, they were able to not only match their pre war production levels by 1950, but surpass them. In the decades that followed Japan proved very competitive on the international stage, and its economic growth in the 60's, 70's and 80's has been described as nothing short of astonishing. 

If you were around living in the US during the 80's, you can probably remember the envy and fear among the US population, that Japan was quickly going to overcome the United States as the world's economic power house. 

While I don't think there is any question that the quality of Japanese products and services has remained very high since the 80's, unfortunately Japan's economy derailed in the early 1990's, culminating in the busting of one of the most famous asset price bubbles in history. 

In the decades following World War II the Japanese population had one of the highest savings rates in the world. As more money was being saved, this meant there was more money available for investment, making access to credit much easier than it had been in the past. As Japan's economy was and still is an export oriented economy, the value of the currency also went up dramatically during this time. The combination of a strong economy, easy access to credit, and a strengthening currency made Japanese assets especially attractive.

As its economy seemed unstoppable, and newly wealthy Japanese saved more and more money, much of that capital flowed into the stock and real estate markets. As you can see from this chart the stock market roared through the 1980s, almost quadrupling in value in 5 years. In the most expensive districts, according to wikipedia.org, real estate prices reached as high as $139,000 per square foot. 



From the high of the stock and real estate markets in 1990, both markets made a slow and painful decline. It took until 2003 for the stock market to finally bottom, down from a top of around 39,000 to a bottom of around 7600. According to wikipedia.org, prices for the most expensive commercial real estate properties stood at 1/100th of their pre bubble bursting peak, and $20 Trillion in wealth had been wiped out in the stock and real estate markets. 

While this may seem like a history lesson that is not relevant to traders, as we will learn in tomorrow's lesson, the affects of Japan's asset price bubble on the Yen are still being felt today, and therefore an understanding is necessary to know how today's market will react to different fundamental events.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.16 07:08

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: BOJ Policy Rate and range price movement 

2017-06-16 03:54 GMT | [JPY - BOJ Policy Rate]

  • past data is -0.10%
  • forecast data is -0.10%
  • actual data is -0.10% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - BOJ Policy Rate] = BoJ Interest Rate Decision is made 8 times a year. The regulator's interest rate is used to provide loans to commercial banks. Establishing an interest rate is one of the main tools of the monetary policy used by the Bank of Japan to regulate the strength of its currency. Increase in the percentage rate has a positive effect on JPY.

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From zerohedge article : Bank Of Japan Leaves Policy, Economic Outlook Unchanged

  • "As expected by all 43 economists who estimate such things, the Bank of Japan left their policy mix unchanged and in a desperate bid to appear modestly positive about how things are going, maintained that"Japan's economy has been turning toward a moderate expansion," adding that that consumer spending "increased its resilience." Hardly a rousing evaluation of the state of the economy after who-knows-how-many-years of so-called 'stimulus'."
  • "USDJPY chopped around a litle, but NKY futures were entirely unimpressed as Kuroda delivered the anticipated 'nothing-burger'."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by BOJ Policy Rate news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.24 09:08

Weekly USD/JPY Outlook: 2017, June 25 - July 02 (based on the article)

Dollar/yen dipped had a strong start to the week but petered out later on. The pair has been sliding as enthusiasm from the Fed’s hawkishness was replaced by skepticism. 


  • The upcoming week begins with a strong start from durable goods orders, continues with the CB consumer confidence and culminates with the final read of US GDP. It is also important to watch out for the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation.
  • In general, $/yen hardly moves on Japanese events. Japan’s trade surplus came out slightly lower than expected.
  • The upcoming week features Japanese inflation figures on Thursday at 23:50. Watch out for the more up-to-date Tokyo CPI. The unemployment rate in Japan dropped to a low of 2.8%.

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