Press review - page 512

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY - bear market rally; 112.89 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on bear market rally for 111.77 resistance level to be testing to above for the secondary rally to be continuing. By the way, 112.89 is the key resistance level for daily price, and if the price breaks this level to above so the bullish reversal will be started.

• "USD/JPY has broken higher by nearly 4% from the April 17 low at 108.13. If you look at the chart below, you can see that the price was already extended lower and a rebound was due. Since then, we’ve had a run higher in specific risky assets like equity and an unwind of bearish EUR positions, which has lifted EUR/JPY higher by ~6.3% in the sametimeframe that USD/JPY has moved higher by ~4%."
• "Thursday will provide the April Bank of Japan meeting, which is expected to leave rates unchanged and use conservative language on expected inflation has given the stubborn JPY and unsteady commodity prices. The driver for USD/JPY in addition to JPY shorts being pulled off after the first round of the French election is the Tax reform plans announced in the US, which has helped lift the yields as the Federal Reserve is in their quiet period."

[Sergey Golubev]

Nasdaq - daily bullish; 5,557.93 is the key level; RSI is indicating the possible correction (based on the article)

Nasdaq daily price is above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA ranging reversal area with the bullish trend to be continuing: price is testing 5,557.93 resistance level to above together with ascending triangle pattern. By the way, RSI indicator is crossing 70 overbought level for now so we can expect a little correction before the bullish to be resumed.

• "The Dow (DJIA), which moved above the 50-day moving average at the start of this week, was trading at 21,018.41 points - up 22.29 (+0.11%) - today in New York at 10.44am. Meanwhile the Nasdaq Composite, which spans over 2,500 securities, was at the same time 6,023.80 - off a tad at 1.70 (-0.03%) - from the open before it setting an intraday high after that of just over 6,039."
• "Looking at the industry sector breakdown of the index, after technology in top five comes Consumer Services with a 20.92% weight and spans 293 securities; Healthcare (12.33%/617 securities); Financials (8.71%/564 securities) and Industrials (6.29%/333 securities). Beyond that, Oil & Gas and Basic Materials sectors combined accounted for 1.16% weight with 136 companies."
• "Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google and Microsoft, which combined account for something a tenth of US market capitalization and keep notching up one record high after the next, are in charge. All of these stocks were yesterday at or close to all-time highs."

[Sergey Golubev]

Deutsche Bank - daily bear market rally; 18.93 resistance is the key (adapted from the article)

Daily shares are on bear market rally located near and below Senjou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bullish and the primary bearish market condition on the chart: the price broke 18.66 resistance to above for 18.93 resistance as a next daily bullish reversal target.

• "Late last week, the Federal Reserve announced its decision to hand out a total of $156.6 million in fines to Deutsche Bank as a part of two enforcement actions. Notably, one of the enforcement actions was linked to the bank’s failure to prevent proprietary trading activity by its employees – making this the first major action by a U.S. regulator against a bank for failure to comply with the Volcker Rule."
• "As the fines were announced before Deutsche Bank reported its results for Q1 (scheduled for April 27th), the bank will incur a one-time increase in operating expenses for the first three months of the year – dragging down operating expenses for the quarter. Although the impact of this fine will be marginal, the real issue would be if Deutsche Bank is not able to fix its inadequate internal controls soon. Failure to remedy things in a timely manner could result in more such compliance and legal costs in the future, which could hurt earnings considerably going forward."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Minimum Bid Rate and range price movement 

2017-04-27 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

• past data is 0.00%
• forecast data is 0.00%
• actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system. 

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From official report:

• "At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news event

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Press Conference and range price movement 

2017-04-27 13:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB Press Conference]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = It's the primary method the ECB uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy. 

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From official report:

• "Incoming data since our meeting in early March confirm that the cyclical recovery of the euro area economy is becoming increasingly solid and that downside risks have further diminished."
• "At the same time, underlying inflation pressures continue to remain subdued and have yet to show a convincing upward trend."
• "If the outlook becomes less favorable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, we stand ready to increase our asset purchase programme in terms of size and/or duration."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB Minimum Bid Rate news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

Starbucks - strong daily bullish; 61.74 is the key (based on the article)

Daily shares price is on bullisah trend located above Ichimoku cloud for the 61.74 resistance level to be crossed for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "Shares of Starbucks, which closed Thursday's regular trading session down 0.4%, dipped further into negative territory on the report. Shares of the coffee giant are currently down 3.5%."
• "Over the last week, Starbucks has taken social media by storm with the release of the Unicorn Frappuccino, its limited edition and multi-colored sugar bomb of a drink. Unfortunately for the coffee giant, the unicorn magic came too late to help its second quarter earnings results, out Thursday afternoon. While Starbucks reported earnings per share that were in line with Wall Street's estimates, its revenue figure and comparable store sales figures both missed the Street's consensus, sending shares for a slide in after-hours trading."
• "Starbucks reported Thursday that it recorded $5.29 billion in second quarter revenue, a 6% increase over sales recorded during the same time in 2016 but a hair below the $5.4 billion analysts expected to see. Net income for the quarter came in at $652.8 million, up 13.5% year over year and resulting in earnings of 45 cents per share -- a figure that was in line with the Wall Street projection."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index and 45 pips range price movement 

2017-04-28 10:00 GMT | [EUR - CPI Flash Estimate]

• past data is 1.5%
• forecast data is 1.8%
• actual data is 1.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - CPI Flash Estimate] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

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From official report:

• "Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.9% in April 2017, up from 1.5% in March 2017, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union."

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EUR/USD M5: 45 pip range price movement by Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index - testing support at 98.56 for the bearish to be resumed (adapted from the article)

Daily price is below Ichimoku cloud for the testing 98.56 support level together with descending triangle pattern to below for the bearish trend to be resumed.

"The barriers are the January-March line and 2016 trendline. A move on either side of these lines (daily close) ideally ushers in the next directional move.” The drop below the line indicates a potentially major trend change. If DXY bounces, then pay attention to the underside of the line (99.50s) for resistance."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CNH: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-04-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

• past data is 2.1%
• forecast data is 1.3%
• actual data is 0.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

• "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2017(table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In thefourth quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 2.1 percent."
• "The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 26, 2017."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, April 30 - May 07 (based on the article)

US Manufacturing data, Crude Oil Inventories, Employment figures from New Zealand, Canada as well as the important US NFP report, Rate decision in Australia, New Zealand, and the US, Speeches from Janet Yellen, Mario Draghi and Stephen Poloz. These are the highlights on forex calendar.

1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 15:00. The manufacturing index is expected to register 56.6 in April.
2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 5:30. Policymakers believe the cash rate will remained unchanged for the rest of this year.
3. New Zealand employment data: Tuesday, 23:45. NZ job growth is expected to reach 0.8% and the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 5.1%.
4. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15. The ADP reading is estimated to show a jobs gain of 178,000 during April.
5. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. US service sector is expected to improve to 56.1 this time.
6. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
7. US Federal Funds Rate: Wednesday, 19:00. The Fed is not expected to change rates this time.
8. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of new jobless claims is expected to register 246,000 this week.
9. Mario Draghi speaks: Thursday, 17:30. ECB President Mario Draghi will speak in Switzerland.
10. Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30. Canadian employment market is expected to show a job creation of 20,000 with 6.7% unemployment rate.
11. US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment rate: Friday, 13:30. The NFP for April is expected to register 194,000 new jobs in April.
12. Janet Yellen speaks: Friday 18:30. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak in Providence about Women’s Participation in the Economy.