My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD - page 42

[thenews]

USD/JPY forecast for the week of July 6, 2015,

The USD/JPY pair did nothing during the course of the week as we continue to consolidate overall. We believe that the market essentially trying to build up enough momentum to finally break out to the upside, and as a result we are bullish but recognize that it may take some time to get that momentum back to the upside. We have no interest in selling, we believe that the 121 level continues offer massive support in this particular currency pair. With that being the case, we believe that we will eventually break out to a fresh, new high, and then head towards the 130 handle.

source

[PICASSO]

EURUSD, Weekly Forecast, 06 - 10 July

Main scenario:

The pair is trading along an sideways trend.

The downtrend may be expected to continue in case the market drops below support level 1.0970, which will be followed by reaching support level 1.0700.

Alternative scenario:

An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.1100, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.1390 - 1.1445.

GBPUSD, Weekly Forecast, 06 - 10 July

Main scenario:

The pair is trading along an downtrend.

The downtrend may be expected to continue while pair is trading below resistance level 1.5610, which will be followed by reaching support level 1.5290.

Alternative scenario:

An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1.5610, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.5740 and then to 1.5970.

GOLD, Weekly Forecast, 06 - 10 July

Main scenario:

The pair is trading along an sideways trend.

An downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below support level 1153, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1136.

Alternative scenario:

An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 1172, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1201.

[thenews]

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 3-7

USD/JPY showed little change at the end of the week closing at 123.82. This week has six events. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

In the US, the Federal Reserve remained cautious but did acknowledge improvement in the US economy. Advance GDP rebounded with a gain of 2.6% in Q2, but this fell short of the estimate. Over in Japan, Retail Sales slipped and inflation levels remained very low.

1. Final Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 1:35. The manufacturing index slipped to 50.1 points in June, within expectations. Little change is expected in the July release.
2. Monetary Base: Monday, 23:50. The indicator dipped to 34.2% in June, shy of the forecast of 36.2%. The downward trend is expected to continue in July, with an estimate of 32.2%.
3. Average Cash Earnings: Tuesday, 1:30. This indicator is linked to consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. The indicator slipped to 0.6% in May but was within expectations. The markets are expecting a stronger reading in June, with a forecast of 0.9%.
4. 10-year Bond Auction: Tuesday, 3:45. The yield on 10-year bonds rose to 0.51% in July, its highest yield since October. The June yield stood at 0.51%.
5. Leading Indicators: Thursday, 5:00. This event is based on 11 economic indicators, but is considered a minor event since most of the data has already been released. The indicator dipped to 106.2% in May, matching the estimate. The forecast for June stands at 106.9%.
6. Monetary Policy Statement: Friday, Tentative. With the Japanese economy struggling and weak inflation numbers, the BOJ is not expected to make any changes to its radical easing monetary stance. A press conference will follow the statement.

* All times are GMT

source

[techmac]

A bit more and GBPJPY is going to be back over 200

[thenews]

USD/JPY: The Case For Limited Upside - BTMU

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi (BTMU) continues to expect limited dollar strength versus the yen despite the approaching rate lift-off from the Federal Reserve.

"The USD/JPY rate has already undergone a substantial move higher and is currently at an extreme over-valued level, BTMU notes.

"Furthermore, Japan’s current account surplus is expanding rapidly again and is likely to become an increasing source of yen demand limiting the scope to the upside," BTMU argues.

[myname]

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 10-14

USD/JPY pushed above the 125 line for the first time since June, but then retracted and was unchanged at the end of the week. This week has six events. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

In the US, NFP was slightly below expectations, leaving analysts divided on the timing of a Fed rate hike. There were no key numbers out of Japan and the BOJ policy statement didn’t show any change in the Bank’s extreme easing stance.

1. Current Account: Sunday, 23:50. Current Account is closely connected to currency demand, as foreigners must buy Japanese yen in order to purchase Japanese exports. The current account surplus jumped to 1.64 trillion yen in May, well above the forecast of 1.39 trillion. However, the markets are expecting a softer reading in June, with an estimate of 1.41 trillion yen.
2. BOJ Monthly Report: Monday, 5:00. This minor report provides statistical data used by the BOJ when it made its most recent interest rate decision as well as the Bank’s view of current and future economic conditions.
3. M2 Money Stock: Monday, 23:50. The indicator dipped to 3.8% in June, within expectations. Little change is expected in the July release.
4. 30-year Bond Auction: Tuesday, 3:45. The yield was down slightly in the July release, coming in at 1.43%. Little change is expected in the upcoming release.
5. Preliminary Machine Tool Orders: Tuesday, 6:00. This manufacturing indicator tends to show strong fluctuation, and came in at 6.6% in June, well off the huge gain of 15.0% a month earlier.

read more

[thenews]

Greenback Still A Buy; We Stay Long USD/JPY - Credit Agricole

The USD has been stabilizing on the back of falling concerns as related to China and still supported Fed rate expectations.

In an environment of improving risk sentiment investors’ focus should shift back to monetary policy prospects as a main currency driver.

Yesterday’s July retail sales release appears to be constructive enough in order to keep the Fed on track with considering higher rates as in September. This is especially true as June figures were released higher and as better domestic demand conditions should keep downside to inflation expectations limited, irrespective of more muted commodity price developments.

As a result to the above outlined conditions we remain in favour of buying the USD, for instance against the JPY. We stay long the pair targeting a move towards 130.00

source

[thenews]

USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Pair in Bullish Triangle, Awaits Breakout

The pair has been advancing since Wednesday, but the rise was very small and it managed to add only around 80 pips. During the Monday session, it hit a wall of selling offers at ¥124.50 and pulled back.

The 4-hour chart is showing a very neutral picture, as the support zone around ¥124 offered a good buying opportunity, however, higher highs are missing and therefore the trend remains choppy. The MACD histogram was in negative territory last week and is not showing any significant signals, and the same goes for momentum, which is moving sideways. Moreover, there is a bearish divergence forming between the last two lows of momentum and the price.

The Stochastics nearly entered the overbought territory on the latest jump, but is now slowly fading from the 80 area, pointing to a possible weakness of the dollar. The inability of the pair to spend any longer above the psychological handle at ¥125 might cause frustration in the bulls' camp and further decline.

The 1-hour chart looks ugly as well. The nearly-2-big-figures sell-off during the previous week amid China's devaluation was bought and the pair stabilized. It is now trading in some kind of a bullish triangle, with lows of August 12 and 14 linked on the lower side of the triangle, while the horizontal resistance at ¥124.50 is halting further upside movement.

Since the pair is in that triangle, the daily outlook is neutral. Breaking above should send the pair to the ¥125.00 area, while clearing the support zone, currently at ¥124.20, should cause further correction toward ¥123.80.

source

[thenews]

USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 24-28

USD/JPY plunged about 250 points last week as the pair closed at 121.92. This marked the pair’s lowest weekly close since mid-May. The upcoming week has just four events. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

The Fed minutes did not remove market uncertainty about the timing of a rate hike, as the Fed is clearly hesitant about raising rates in September. This helped the yen post strong gains against the US dollar. Japanese Preliminary GDP contracted in Q2, but managed to meet expectations.

1. SPPI: Tuesday, 23:50. This minor index measures the change in corporate inflation. The indicator dipped to 0.4% in June, shy of the forecast of 0.6%. The forecast for the June report stands at 0.6%.
2. Household Spending: Thursday, 23:30. Household Spending is an important indicator of consumer spending, which is a critical component of economic growth. The indicator had a dismal June, with a sharp decline of 2.0%. This was well off the estimate of a 2.0% gain. The markets are expecting the indicator to bounce back in July, with a forecast of +0.9%.
3. Tokyo Core CPI: Thursday, 23:30. This is the most important Japanese inflation index, and should be treated as a market-mover. The index continues to post weak numbers, and dropped 0.1% in July. The markets are expecting another decline of 0.1% in the August report.
4. Retail Sales: Thursday, 23:50. Retail Sales is the primary gauge of consumer spending, and an unexpected reading can have an immediate effect on the movement of USD/JPY. The indicator softened in June with a gain of 0.9%, but this was within expectations. The markets are expecting a strong gain of 1.1% in the July report.

* All times are GMT

source

[thenews]

USD/JPY: Yen Holds Ground at Feb High on Safe-Haven Bid

An overly cautious approach in markets on Monday stemmed from China, where equities dived on fears about the strength of the world's second-biggest economy and policymakers' ability to avoid a hard-landing.

The Shanghai Composite index fell more than 8% on Monday, while European and US markets quickly followed suit.

The USD/JPY was trading down 2.82% at ¥118.57 late on Monday, its lowest level since February, hitting an intraday low of ¥116.07 earlier in the session, its weakest since late 2014.

BNZ currency strategist Kimberly Martin noted on Tuesday morning in Auckland that while there was no notable data releases overnight, fears appeared to be wide-ranging.

"The state of China and emerging markets is a dominant feature. The market also frets whether plunging commodity prices are representative of downward momentum in global growth more broadly. Imminent US Fed hikes has almost slipped down the agenda of fears, as the market is using current market ructions as an excuse to ratchet down expectations for Fed rate hikes. In this backdrop the USD weakened further, while the ‘safe haven’ JPY was a key beneficiary," she wrote.

Just a few months ago a large majority of investors expected the Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin normalizing interest rates in September, however, bets have been pushed out to December and in some cases early 2016 amid concerns over China.

The world's second-largest economy is set to expand at its weakest annual pace in 25 years in 2015, with policymakers attempting to move towards a more market-based economy, rather than one controlled by the authorities.

Two weeks ago the People's Bank of China (PBoC) made a big step towards this goal by devaluing its currency almost 3% against the US dollar to bring the USD/CHY closer in line with its market value.

The move sent shock-waves through global markets as investors feared that the devaluation would hamper growth in China's trading partners' economies.

"The irony is that the move to weaken China’s currency that precipitated the market rout is probably a positive for the Chinese economy," Jasper Lawler, market analyst at CMC Markets wrote on Monday. "The problem is that China's stock market has long since been divorced from the Chinese economy."

source