Press review - page 510
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Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)
USD/JPY - "It’s therefore all-but certain that the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting on April 26/27 will end with all its monetary settings unchanged; potentially a negative factor for the Japanese Yen. After falling steadily this year, USD/JPY has shown signs of stabilizing and even rising modestly over the past few days and that weaker trend for the Yen – partly in response to Kuroda’s comments – could well continue."
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)
USD/CAD - "The news is not all negative for the Canadian Dollar with the latest Bank of Canada policy meeting (April 12) producing a slightly hawkish tone. Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Wilkins said in her opening statement that “many of the economic data that we have seen since our last MPR have been stronger than expected,” adding that “is certainly a welcome change.” Canada’s economy is expected to grow by 2.5% this year and just below 2% in 2018 and 2019."
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)
GBP/USD - "The big item on the economic calendar for the U.K. next week is GDP set to be released on Friday morning. The expectation is for 1.9% annualized growth, and this could produce a direct relationship with price action where beats bring on higher prices while a miss elicits selling. More opportunistic for GBP-volatility will be the next Bank of England Super Thursday event on May 12th. This is when the Bank will publish updated inflation forecasts and this is when markets can get a better pulse on just how concerned the bank might be on the topic of rising inflationary forces. There is scant expectation for any movement in rates at that meeting; but given that the last BoE rate decision produced the first vote for a rate hike post-Brexit, the point of interest will be in the details to see as to whether or not any other members of the MPC are growing more comfortable with the idea of tighter policy options in the near-term."
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)
AUD/USD - "We will get an official look at Australian consumer prices for the first quarter of this year on Tuesday. They rose at a sluggish 1.5% in the final three months of 2016, but the rate has been increasing for three quarters. If it continues to do so then the current market forecast of ‘no change’ to Australia’s record-low. 1.5% base rate this year may be threatened. That could support the Aussie. However, it will probably take a lot more than one data point to put that old thesis in serious jeopardy. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Phillip Lowe will also give a speech on Tuesday. We can have no idea of what he may say, of course, but a guess that he might mention a stronger Australian Dollar as an undesirable policy headwind would be an educated one."
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)
S&P 500 - "Markets will start out the week with the French presidential election on their minds, but to what impact it will have on U.S. markets likely depends on the magnitude to which Europe moves, and any reaction the U.S. has may be short-lived. Looking to key economic events on the docket; ‘high’ impact data releases include Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Advanced Goods Trade Balance and Durable Goods Orders on Thursday, and 1Q GDP on Friday. President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he will unveil a tax plan this coming week. Markets will almost certainly show a response once the details are released."
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for FTSE 100 (based on the article)
FTSE 100 - "To start the week, markets will take interest in how events pan out with the French presidential election. U.K. election headlines will remain a constant risk moving forward. Looking to the economic calendar the only ‘high’ impact data set to be released is 1Q GDP on Friday."
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for CAC 40 (based on the article)
CAC 40 - "The market’s attention will be fully placed on the French presidential election on Sunday. It’s currently a tight race and difficult to make a call on who will win, but there is a high likelihood that none of the candidates secure the necessary number of votes for an outright win. This will lead to a run-off vote between two candidates on May 7."
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)
Next Week’s Data Points That May Affect Energy Markets:
Crude Oil - "After the first round of French Presidential Election, Monday will provide important demand data from China. At 2:30 pm PM Beijing time, we will get an understanding of March energy and commodity trade data.Thursday will also be the start of the International Oil Summit in Paris with the participationofoil officials from Libya, Iran, oil ministers from Iraq, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, the OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo, as well as the CEOs of Total and Saudi Aramco."
Weekly Outlook: 2017, April 23 - April 30 (based on the article)
The US dollar wobbled in the week after Easter, as Trump approches his first hundred days in office. French Presidential Elections, rate decision in Japan and the eurozone, US Durable Goods Orders and GDP data from The UK, the US and Canada stand out in a busy week. These are the major events on forex calendar.
Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, April 23 - April 30 (based on the article)
EUR/USD drifted to the upside, driven by the dollar’s weakness. Is there more to come? The big event of the upcoming week is the French elections, followed by the ECB decision.