Press review - page 554

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "Thursday’s meeting of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee will almost certainly end with bank rate left at 0.25%, government bond buying at £435 billion and corporate bond buying at £10 billion. Once more, only two members of the MPC are likely to have voted for a rate rise."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)

USD/CAD - "The Bank of Canada (BoC) has hiked rates by 0.25% at both of the last two policy meeting (July and September) leaving commentators divided over the timing of the next move. Commentating on this week’s hike, the central bank noted that recent economic data had been ‘stronger than expected’ supporting the bank’s view that growth in Canada is becoming ‘more broadly-based and self-sustaining’. However the governing council also noted that there was some excess capacity in Canada’s labour market, while given elevated household indebtedness, ‘close attention will be paid to the sensitivity of the economy to higher interest rates’. The next meeting on October 25 also coincides with the latest quarterly Monetary Policy Report where BoC governor Stephen Poloz will give updated guidance on the economy, including inflation projections."

[Sergey Golubev]

Stock Market - The Week Ahead (based on the article)

Nikkei 225 Index on daily chart is on bearish ranging below Ichimoku cloud: the price is testing 19,225 support level to below for the bearish trend to be resumed with 19.140 nearest daily bearish target to re-enter.

• "The Nasdaq Composite and small cap Russell 2000 were hit the hardest last week as both were down 1% while the S&P 500 lost 0.60%. The Dow Transports and Dow Utilities bucked the trend as they gained 0.30% and 0.80% respectively. The NYSE Advance/declines were negative with 1227 stocks advancing and 1939 declining."
• "The stock market’s intermediate term trend remains positive as the weekly NYSE, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Industrials A/D lines all made new highs a week ago. The weekly chart of the market leading PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) shows that it traded in a narrow range last week as it is holding well above the 20 week EMA at $139.92. For the week we get the PPI and CPI data on Wednesday and Thursday. The Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Industrial Production, Business Inventories and Consumer Sentiment all will be released on Friday."

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD - intra-day bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting for the strong trend to be started (based on the article)

H4 price is located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within 1.3223 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing and 1.3158 support level for the secondary correction to be started.

• "For GBP-weakness plays, traders may want to look away from the U.S. Dollar. The back-breaking down-trend in the U.S. Dollar could add complication to such strategies, and in order to sell GBP, traders may be better served by matching up what could be a weak British Pound with a currency that has recently displayed some element of strength, such as the Euro. EUR/GBP is closing in on what could be a very interesting level for such strategies around the .9000-area on the pair. "
• "For GBP-strength, traders will likely want to exercise some patience here. One potential option is looking for higher-low support around 1.3117 in GBP/USD. The key to such an approach will be confirming that support is actually showing at the level, rather than buying on the first print below. But if this doesn’t show up, traders may have to contend with a short-term breakout. To approach such a scenario, traders can first let this batch of resistance around 1.3250 give way before plotting longer-term bullish approaches. Just above this resistance is a potentially huge zone around 1.3500, which has some historic implications for the pair. This level had helped to set the ‘Financial Collapse’ low for more than seven years (until Brexit came into the equation), and just 22 pips below we have the 50% retracement of the ‘Brexit move’ in GBP/USD. This could be an idea level to look for a near-term higher-high to prelude a higher-low support entry. Higher low support at 1.3350 or 1.3250 could be accommodative for longer-term bullish exposure in GBP."

[Sergey Golubev]

Gold's Strong Performance (based on the article)

Daily price is above 200 SMA in the bullish area for trying the 1,357 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "December gold futures settled at $1,351.20 an ounce on Friday, September 8, the highest settlement for a most-active contract in more than a year, according to FactSet data reported on by MarketWatch."
• "Anthony Allen Anderson, director at precious metals dealer GSI Exchange, specifically cited "increasing tensions in the Korean Peninsula" and "further deterioration in relations with Russia" as providing tailwinds for gold prices."
• "Analysts also emphasized the key role Fed policy plays in gold prices, predicting that the central bank probably won't hike benchmark rates any time soon."

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD - daily bullish resumed (based on the article)

Daily price was bounced from 200 SMA level at 0.7130 to above for the primary bullish trend to be resumed. The price is breaking 0.7293 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "The New Zealand Dollar has seemingly invalidated a bearish Head and Shoulders chart formation against its US namesake but scope for recovery may be limited. Polling data ahead of the general election on September 23 pushed prices higher but gains might prove corrective in the context of a longer-term decline. Sizing up current positioning, a daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7307 opens the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7415. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% Fib at 0.7240 paves the way for another challenge of the August 31 low at 0.7132."
• "The short NZD/USD trade from 0.7230 has been stopped out. The tepid move higher from the August 31 low may yet amount to a bearish Flag pattern preceding continuation of the decline from the July 27 swing top. Confirmation is absent for now however, arguing against re-entering short at this time."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD: U.S. Producer Price Index

2017-09-13 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

• past data is -0.1%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report :

• "The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices edged down 0.1 percent in July and moved up 0.1 percent in June. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.4 percent for the 12 months ended in August."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and range price movement 

2017-09-14 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is 29.3K
• forecast data is 17.5K
• actual data is 54.2K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. 

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From official report :

• "Employment increased 54,200 to 12,269,000. Full-time employment increased 40,100 to 8,392,300 and part-time employment increased 14,100 to 3,876,700."
• "Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.6%."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

Brent Crude Oil - daily bullish; 55.19 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in th bullish area of the chart - the price is breaking 55.19 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "Energy prices have been battered for some time now. However, we could start to see a bounce in crude oil and gas prices due to the potential fall in supply, coupled with increased demand due to OPEC’s production cuts and Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. We’ve seen crude oil prices hovering below the $50, but this could change quite soon."
• "With crude oil and natural gas prices setting up for a potential rebound, there are some trading opportunities that have been uncovered, and some market participants might want to look to take advantage of some energy-related exchange-traded funds that have been pummeled."

[Sergey Golubev]

Nikkei 225 Index - weekly bullish ranging within 20,315/19,140 (based on the article)

Nikkei 225 Index on weekly chart is above Ichimoku cloud in primary bullish trend for the ranging within 20,315 'bullish continuation' resistance level and 19,140 'correctional' support level.

• "The Nikkei 225 bounced at the bottom of its trading range last week only to blow clean through the top of it on Wednesday in an impressive, three-day bull run."
• "However, while price action has clearly validated the bottom of the range, it has yet to finally dispose of the top. Punchy though this week’s action has been – and part of a global rise in risk appetite – the Nikkei now looks somewhat short of breath on its daily chart."
• "For sure, Tuesday’s peak of 19,871 will constitute a higher high than the two previous peaks – 19,672 on August 31 and 19,834 on August 15 – if it’s confirmed. However, it will still be a lower high than August 7’s 20,000-and-change. It will also constitute another failure to breach the downtrend line in place from 2017’s high."