Terminator Version 4

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project1972
563
project1972  

Hello Everyone.

I am an active member of this Forum and I have take many ideas from here to be implemented in my EAs and live trading but I was thinking that I never posted anything useful in retribution of this great community, I don't like the public section too much because of the spamming going there although the action of NewDigital is invaluable to keep things organized and going forward after those attacks.

I will post here one of the developments I did almost 6 months ago and I am still actively testing

Here is Terminator 4.11 It use the core logic of the version 2 or DLM1.1 but with serious mods.

With the default settings this EA is a swing trader and swap collector.

I open trades based on the positive swap, the long term trends an a Ichimoku indicator.

The pipstep, take profit, and all many functions are taken from a dynamic calculator

It use several margin calculations to take care of free margin, floating loss, etc in order of not overleverage the account and keep the risk low.

Is not a serious money maker like previus versions but it will grow the account slowly without running excessive risk.

It use several indicators to confirm each pipstep, take the exit of a position, etc, probably it is the smarter Martingale EA available.

It use a predefined and configurable Equity Stopto exit all positions in case of strong carry trade unwind.

The Key of the success of this system is UnderLeverage, Trading Positive Swap and the strong carry trades ongoing in the global markets.

Terminator 4.11 is a clear winner as long the global carry trades keep going strong. The system is able to resist several hundreds of pips if global carry trades unwind, but drawdown can get bigger if that happen. A 1000 pips correction like the yen movement in February can lead a Equity trigger.

It work on H1 timeframe, Minimun deposit size is $1000 on IBFX miniaccounts $10000 on standard IBFX or $100k on other brokers with a min lot size of 0.1

Best setting I found are the default ones. use it on all pairs.

This EA calculate the swap an take the direction automatically if used with default settings,it also detect account settings (mini,standard)automatically

This EA use several timeframes to take signals, you need to have good history data.

My Demo Accounts:

Statement: 1514515 - Terminator v4

Account Started on 06/21/2007 (Mini Account at IBFX)

Statement: 455958 - Terminator 4.11

Account Started on 09/27/2007 (Standard Account at NorthFinance)

Enjoy, and please do no run on live accounts unless you are willing to assume the Total loss of your deposit, Like all martingale EAs, this one can blow your account in serious adverse conditions.

EA was update to version A on September-07-2007 and the following lines were added that day.

Reason= "New Settings to improve safety"

Anyway I want to point that this EA is still not safe at all, it still can have significant risk under fast moving markets.

Unfortunately the martingale concept is flawed from the start and nothing can be done to improved it without turn it in the unprofitable side, one of my demos resisted the last August correction but it did it with almost 20% drawdown. The other demo at NF suffered an equity stop and it loss almost 60% of the account.

The new settings of version A restrict even more the margin utilization and it use a 90% of account equity protection.

I want to point that I DONT USE THIS EA on any of my live accounts I used in the past on mini accounts, but not now, simple because I loss the confidence in the martingale systems.

With this I want to say that you should do the same, If the Author don't trust in his system why will you trust on it ?

That's OK to test on demo and to learn from it but the risk/reward ratio is not acceptable to risk an account with this system

connecting4less
296
connecting4less  

thanks for your contribution,

does this one uses a stoploss?

and will it perform safer than the other terminator???

and i will also start testing as soon as i go home, i am at work as im typing this

lol

project1972
563
project1972  
connecting4less:
thanks for your contribution,

does this one uses a stoploss?

and will it perform safer than the other terminator???

and i will also start testing as soon as i go home, i am at work as im typing this

lol

It use two types of stop, a equity stop (defined at 50% of the account by default) and a money stop (disable by default)

My research indicate that this system would have trigger the stops 2 times in two years.

Both during strong carry trades unwind, the last one during February of this year and the previous one during march, April 2006

Of course it is safer that any martingale out there, but it is less profitable also.

THIS IS NOT A TYPICAL MARTINGALE EA, IT IS A SWING TRADER BUILD AROUND A MARTINGALE ENGINEto cost averaging each enter.

The max lot size it will open is 2.1 lot on a 100k account or 0.21 lot on a 1K mini account and some pairs have to move 1000 pips to reach that progression.

Like any system it can have both, good or bad periods, it is only a trading tool, the key is understand how it work, the logic behind it.

You can use it on times of strong carry trades or low risk aversion between investors, stop it on periods of high risk aversion.

Example: Low risk aversion typically happen between May to November, at the end of November, typically Investor start pulling money from the market and carry trades can suffer, this situation intensify on first days of January, Investor close their winning carry trades at that time to reopen some at the end of January, after middle February Japanese investors pull their money back to Japan to close their fiscal year and this condition could last until the begin of May.

After May the cycle start again.

This is a simplified explanation about carry trades, and this EA work that way, this EA wont be affected by a 400 or 500 pip swing but 1000 pips is a serious drawdown although a 1000 pips correction happen only on the periods I have explained and if you are smarter you will put the EA out of the market on that period.

Of course, a stock market crash can change everything at any moment and this Ea will suffer in the case of a unexpected fast carry trades unwind.

connecting4less
296
connecting4less  

great explanation,

so when you said it is not as profitable like other mantingable EAs, the importance is safety and stability,

do you have an estimate return on this EA? or not yet?

project1972
563
project1972  
connecting4less:
great explanation,

so when you said it is not as profitable like other mantingable EAs, the importance is safety and stability,

do you have an estimate return on this EA? or not yet?

Right, Safety and stability are the first thing in the design of this EA. We can't afford an account loss, because that there is a lot of safety mechanism coded in this EA, To me, is more important the preservation of the account than the profit. If you want to gamble there are a lot of others EA out there.

As always said, to win you have to risk, and because that you need to take some exposition on the markets but it is strongly controlled in this EA.

Example: This EA will not open new positions is it is against the long term Trend, This EA will not start opening new positions if the margin utilization is over 1%

(it will preserve the 99% of the margin available)

This EA will not start opening new positions if the floating loss is over 2% of the account balance.

This EA will continue trading the previous opened positions but it have several exit mechanism according with the level of drawdown and the signal received, it can accelerate exit or slowly it, of course it is not market proff but it is very smarter.

I estimate an annual ROI between 40% to 120% depending on market conditions is used with 19, 20 pairs

connecting4less
296
connecting4less  

sounds interesting,

how long have you been testing it???

i looked at your statment its only showing i believe 2 months

i will also test it on a micro account, to see how it will perform,

now say with 1000-3000 deposit

how many pairs do you recommend to test it on?

project1972
563
project1972  
connecting4less:
sounds interesting,

how long have you been testing it???

i looked at your statment its only showing i believe 2 months

i will also test it on a micro account, to see how it will perform,

now say with 1000-3000 deposit

how many pairs do you recommend to test it on?

I am testing from December 2006, it worked trouble free until the big swing of the JPY at the end of February, it blew the account at that time, but I was not running any equity protection, I added it an I started testing on April

Anyway as I pointed before this EA is not intended to be running on well defined periods of low liquidity in the market, read my previus post about carry trades, keep this on mind all the times. If you have a feeling that big investors start pulling money from the market. you need to do the same. Remember this EA is only a tool. the decision of use and when, remain only on you.

I posted how it work to help you to define better the rules of when use it or when not.

If you want to take the EA out of the market and have open positions, set Manual=1 to slowly exit the profitable positions and don't open new ones. If you want to accelerate the exit a little more, set CloseAllProfitTradesNow=True

If you want to exit regardless of profit or not, set CloseAllOpenTradesNow=True

Use it on many pairs you want, the EA will check the margin available and the swap rates before open a position on any pair, I am testing on 26 pairs on NorthFinance, of course, keep it out of exotic pairs with low liquidity and 50 pips spread.

connecting4less
296
connecting4less  

i am in florida, st augustine and palatka area, where are you at in florida, if you dont mind me asking you?

project1972
563
project1972  

I want to point that when the demo account blew the 5/03/2007 because of the JPY carry trade drop I was testing an Demo Account of 25K at NF and I started that account with 15K on December, after that account blew, the JPY started to retraced, probably a 100k account would have resisted the swing, and end with a ton of profit, after that I set a more tighter margin calculation to keep the system in the safe side, and I raised the account requirement 10 times to help on it.

This is a backtest of the system on EURUSD with a risk 20 times higher.

http://www.mydemotesting.com/live/Project1972/test1/StrategyTester.htm

And I used this system on a REAL Account at NF with 8 times less the initial capital requirement.

http://www.mydemotesting.com/live/Project1972/Real-Account/DetailedStatement.htm

Of course this Account didn't suffer any loss, I stopped the EA on 9 of February when I detected the lagging on JPY pairs.(early on January I forecasted a 1000 pips correction on JPY pairs)

Please don't do the same, the level of risk is too high with that initial capital (NF don't have microlots or mini accounts)

connecting4less:
i am in florida, st augustine and palatka area, where are you at in florida, if you dont mind me asking you?

I am in Miami, Florida

connecting4less
296
connecting4less  

nice statment,

you weren't trading in the swap direction right?? like you recommended on Terminator EA?

project1972
563
project1972  
connecting4less:
nice statment, you weren't trading in the swap direction right?? like you recommended on Terminator EA?

I was trading swap on most pairs but not on all, in my live accounts I adapt the direction of trading according to my knowledge of the market, sometimes I change rules if I want to. Remember, Market is governed with human nature, not by a set of computer rules, not matter how complex or smarter are those rules.

But if you don't want to figure or don't know the future short term direction of the market, trading positive swap on the periods I pointed before is nearly a foolproof long term method. Remember that "nearly" to me mean "almost, closely, on most cases but not always"

After too many test, to me, positive swap is the best method, you can trade against the swap on pairs with low interest differential but at the end, the excess of liquidity in the today markets end moving the pairs in the swap direction, Example: the abundance of buyers on the GBP against the JPY end moving the cable up against the USD although the GBPUSD interest rate differential is too low.