Virtual Trading - martingale solution - page 5
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Hello,
I just wanted to add something ... I have read thousands of posts about martingale both in forex and in roulette. From my experience martingale strategy by itself is doomed to drive people crazy (and of course broke)... I emphasize on the worlds BY ITSELF.
Let's start from roulette....What do most people think ... I will bet on red, and will double my bet every time I lose, but eventually everyone gets hit by a 9,10 or 11 in a row and hit the limit on the betting table... Why people think they will win but they lose ? It is actually very simple math ...
1st of all your chances are never 50/50 ... the most stupid ones ignore the ZERO, or the double zero - so the chances of winning are about 47% against 53% chances of losing.
2nd - everyone thinks that after getting 5 black ones in a row it is very unlikely that they get a 6th one and the chances are very slim ... oh gee.. you really have to be an idiot to believe that because these are independent events and chances are always the same - 47% like the 5 previous times...
... so what is the conclusion ? Roulette cannot be beaten unless you are luckiest person in the world
Good to know martingale doesn't work on that ... but the thing that we need to think again is .. IS forex a roulette or NOT?
I hope the answer is no ... what do indicators give you in trading? They give you an EDGE - the improve your chances ... you start with a 50/50 chances to come up with the correct direction - buy or sell, but either your indicators, your fundamental analysis or your pure intuition give you an edge - maybe 1% but that means you have 51% chances of winning.
The conclusion is that pure martingale is doomed - due to te restrictions (limited amount of money) but combined with the specifics of forex it can be winning. Let's take an average system that gives 5 out of 10 winning trades - it breaks even if followed correctly. So use martingale on it - you lose 5 times on the average and the 6th is correct... Am I wrong?
... just brainstorming ...
There was a very interesting article on a website I read a week ago, but I am still new and not very familiar with forum rules so don't want to get in trouble - not sure if I can post the article or a link ? any idea?
Regards!
There is more than 1 way to trade Forex and make money. So there is no right or wrong way, just profitable or not. 5% risk of ruin may be OK with some, and not with others. And carrying large drawdowns for long periods of time after an exceptional event might also be acceptable for some or not for others.
I personally would not use full martingale in my own trading. I'm more interested in martingale when I'm right, and get out when I'm wrong with a stop. That is my interest. To build out a martingale as the trade is going in my direction, not the other way around.
There is more than 1 way to trade Forex and make money. So there is no right or wrong way, just profitable or not. 5% risk of ruin may be OK with some, and not with others. And carrying large drawdowns for long periods of time after an exceptional event might also be acceptable for some or not for others. I personally would not use full martingale in my own trading. I'm more interested in martingale when I'm right, and get out when I'm wrong with a stop. That is my interest. To build out a martingale as the trade is going in my direction, not the other way around.
I must agree with you, martingale cannot be used as a trading system - it might cover up losses or increase profits though if used right... which actually is the catch!
sorry but i disagree with you on this one......you just haven't been exposed to some of the other tools out there......this game is called FOREX not ROULETTE, big difference my friend, there's things in forex that you can do that you cant do in the casino roulette arena.....phreak
I must agree with you, martingale cannot be used as a trading system - it might cover up losses or increase profits though if used right... which actually is the catch!
jbfx,
i like your last 2 lines, my manual trading system is based on this premise(Van Tharp)......and using it i love beating the hell out of the forex market....
remember the golden rule of trading: "cut your losses short and let your profits run" the key is to build a system around this rule, but more importantly this is a game of INTERNAL CONTROL which most people dont have......phreak
There is more than 1 way to trade Forex and make money. So there is no right or wrong way, just profitable or not. 5% risk of ruin may be OK with some, and not with others. And carrying large drawdowns for long periods of time after an exceptional event might also be acceptable for some or not for others. I personally would not use full martingale in my own trading. I'm more interested in martingale when I'm right, and get out when I'm wrong with a stop. That is my interest. To build out a martingale as the trade is going in my direction, not the other way around.
try it out and research and study it my friend.....you'll be very impressed, if you need my help with anything let me know...phreak
Hi phorex_phreak,
every comment is valid and every opinion is respected , the only way to tell right from wrong are tests.
What I have learn is to always keep a good margin to play with, presonally to keep my margin, I hedge my losses and I add to my wins but thats another subject.
time frame for martingles doesn't really matter , unless we use indicators , if you notice from my previous notes I don't use indicators to entre the trade " I use them to confirm the trend and mostly trade against it " , to enter the trade I measure the move and how big it was and I enter a reversal if its too big , there are many way to make money in forex, some ppls use pullback to add lots and enter with the main trend , other ppls use pullback to make small profit, keep in mind that the market is mostly choppy so we see lots of pullbacks.
- Not running a martingle during NFP is a valid point
- I have seen lots of good work in TSD so I may not agree with you on that point, but I agree that the best work is done privately
- trying to forcast the forex is done by techinical trading , I am not aware of any indicator that would simulate a trader techinical view on the market, planetary syncs maybe very good but I haven't tried them, what I would do is instead of forcasting the future you could start the trade at the London open or NY open and follow the trend from there , that would be easier ..
I am not against your ideas, you could be 100% right, the only way to know it , is to test it
Regards,
Alan-you must first have properly scaled charts, Why?? because you are going to use 3 geometric ellipses on your charts, ellipses are about 95% accurate on forex charts when used properly, now, when there is an ellipse failure, thats ok, because are sequence is high enough that the EA can recover with relative ease....it doesnt end here...
5-using the planets Declination we can plot it into the future infinately, so that means with 60-80% percent it can accurately predict where the market is going to go....
6- planetary syncs are about 97% percent accurate with the forex market, of course you will need access to the ephemeris wheel, which is pretty easy...
could you pls tell us from where can we get more information about those points ... Regards.
sorry but i disagree with you on this one......you just haven't been exposed to some of the other tools out there......this game is called FOREX not ROULETTE, big difference my friend, there's things in forex that you can do that you cant do in the casino roulette arena.....phreak
I am not sure what exactly disagree on that post but actually read my previous post where I wrote quite a lot to emphasize what is the difference between roulette and forex. I also think I have been exposed to a lot of tools .. actually you can't imagine how many... but most prove to be useless. And besides forex is not a game - this is psychological moment... but let's go back to the main point, which I think is how we can integrate martingale into trading?
156,
your absolutely correct that forex is a psychological battle, i like to call it internal control as by dr. van tharp, so you want to get to the nitty gritty of martingaling and forex?? no problem, i hope your up for some study and you'd better be a superb programmer or pay someone to do it, to convert the tools into MT4......
we can start from the ground up and build this together and i'll help everyone here as much as i can....im sure we have enough brain power here to put something special together on this forum....im not going to give anyone my EA but im certainly going to point everyone in the right direction, so ask some specific questions and we'll get cracking.....phreak
I am not sure what exactly disagree on that post but actually read my previous post where I wrote quite a lot to emphasize what is the difference between roulette and forex. I also think I have been exposed to a lot of tools .. actually you can't imagine how many... but most prove to be useless. And besides forex is not a game - this is psychological moment... but let's go back to the main point, which I think is how we can integrate martingale into trading?
typhoon,
here's a great book to get you started, its rather on the expensive side but very valuable in my view....phreak
The Handbook of Market Esoterica
could you pls tell us from where can we get more information about those points ... Regards.