for reasons you will all understand, i am not posting a real account statement.
So far Drawdown is 4% with only 2 Yen pairs open(EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY), which make up 60% of the DD.
Fortunatly the EA has detected the rather strong downtrend and is NOT opening new trades in these crosses and has the "Floating loss protection" on!
This will, as far as i can see, prevent new trades.
Still comfortable right here, but this can change soon.
I like to get a feel of how the EA perform on these types off stress conditions to evaluate further improvements.
Unfortunately (for developing purpose) this type of market condition don't happen frequently, but definitely is the type of market we have to survive to collect profits on favorable market conditions. (when the long trend resume)
7% drawdown is nothing compared the 28% profit in 3 months, but still is a number beyond my confort zone.
I will like to know how others people are doing or see some statements.
Specialy I will like to know if anyone got stuck with many JPY pairs together. Please report.
Attached is a statement of my results so far.
no trades on USDJPY so far.
I tried to load at least 2 years of historical data on dayly TF on start of T4
I started demo-testing since 6/21. Was up at about 5.8% in one month on 7/21.
But started dropping this week and down quite heavily within the last maybe 12 hours or so..
Thanks to everyone,
The problem with the JPY is looking bad.
The next strong support for JPY pairs
GBPJPY will come at 237.xx
EURJPY will come at 159.xx
NZDJPY will come at 86.xx
AUDJPY will come at 97.xx
CHFJPY is currently nearly his 200 days MA support at 98.00
If CHFJPY don't rebound from there, there is a very bearish symptom.
USDJPY already broken his 200 days MA support at 119.85 (very bearish symptom)
Enter in panic is not good, the movement should find a strong support at some point, but tomorrow is Friday, it mean not swap day and low liquidity day, London traders can intensify short selling triggering more stops and more people closing long positions, at the end of Friday, traders should cover shorts before enter in the weekend, and there will be a probably rebound if it don't happen before. Anyway during the next week there is a probable continuation of this movement.
CHFJPY is one of the leading indicators of bottom, tops because CHF is considered a safe heaven under stress. CHFJPY found a strong support at his 200 days MA around 98.00 and it did a strong rebound, some big traders are closing shorts, anyway expect a drop to retest support again in the next hours, if it hold, we did a bottom (JPY did a top) , if support hold, long traders will enter and a Up move can start.
After watch how drawdown increased to a very dangerous levels on this EA, I think we should tight the damaged control policy.
One solution can be increase the EquityStop to a more sounding number in order to get rid off loser's before the drawdown become huge.
This solution is somewhat proposed by cbrock5000 on Steinitz EA using a equity trendline, here is the link to his post:
After analyze the normal drawdown of the EA in the last 3 months, I think that a EquityStop set at 92-93% of the account could have save us of this type of market condition without affect the overall yearly profits too much.
Using the actual MM, I never saw a drawdown over 6% before and I think the best value can be something like 7-8% of maximal allowed drawdown before a cut-off.
Unfortunately this Method can't be backtested because MT4 can't backtest a basket of currencies, and do a backtest on only one pair is pointless because the results will be quite different on a basket of pairs.
Any Ideas ?
Current Trading update
while it never is easy nor great to see hughe drawdowns, this still is part of higher risk trading.
I am trading your EA as part of a portfolio, which includes also several mechanical trend following systems(these have done very well the last few days,fortunatly one trading GBP/JPY, plus EUR/USD and GBP/USD).
Coming back to money management, my personal absolut "total equity" stop includes:
10% on any new system, i tested and than run with real money
50% of annual profits
So here is what i did:
I have allocated a little more equity(from profits of the other systems only!) to the T 4.11 account, which brings my drawdown well below 10%.
It might take a few weeks or even months to bring the trades back into money, but markets look poised for a little oversold bounce here.
Depending how big that bounce is, there is at least a good chance to exit most of the trades break even or with a small profit in my IBFX account.
If i am wrong my equity stop triggers and i will exit with a nice loss!
If i am right, the total equity curve comes back stronger than before.
Always have some different systems in a portfolio.
Manage this portfolio as a total portfolio
If you do not have this:
Allocate only 5% of your total investments in something like T.4.11 and take some spare cash(i repeat s o m e !) as a reserve for situations like the present one.
I expect the next 2 weeks to either make or break this current trend, which is an unwind of carry trades, because of market weakness.Specially JPY fundamentally looks as weak as before based on economic data.T.4.11 is a swap collector and an average down trading system, which will do well, if and after the trend resumes.The only unsureness is when and at what point does a trendreversal start.
Note: i would suggest in the EA to set the equity stop at 10%= 90 for all practical purposes
Terminator 4.11 Holding Up
I feel this is a very well developed system and I am glad to see it recovering from the recent larger DD.
Broker: NF Demo
Start: 14 July 07
Open Trades: (-$7,341.47)
MAX DD Seen to Date: (-$25,500)