Terminator Version 4 - page 11

bluehippo
31
bluehippo  

I also noticed a dramatic decrease of drawdown.

I am out with the most JPY pairs now, reaching level 6 maximum.

I was flat anyway all the time on GBPJPY and USDJPY.

Still only open is NZDJPY on level 5 and EURCAD.

I feel very save with this EA. I run it with lower DrawDown protection that the EA can breath and use the maxtrades full capacity.

JanusTrading
421
JanusTrading  

Update and Comments

A nice oversold bounce seen the last 2 days.

Exited some positions manually(remember live account, folks) with a 0.34% profit, but exited some margin heavy trades NZD/USD and GBP/CHF , to keep room for another downleg.

Great thing is, that no new positions get opened!

Tomorrow 3x swap on the schedule.

DD is back to around 3.6% after the account top up.

Share the feeling that even that strong move did not really blow up the account, but too early for a final statement.

Maybe 1 suggestion, which is very difficult to code..but:

If "excessive floating loss", EA must close out all open positions, which are "positive"............i did not try the "close all profit trade feature" , but i think this enables this type of exit.

Project 1972, please advise.............

Janus

project1972
563
project1972  
If "excessive floating loss", EA must close out all open positions, which are "positive"............i did not try the "close all profit trade feature" , but i think this enables this type of exit.

If "excessive floating loss" is on the account protection is also active, the EA will close the trades very fast, as sooner they reach a very minimal profit, it mean that the reward/risk relation is very low in this condition but the EA try to get out of those big orders as fast as it can.

Anyway my accounts didn't blow-up but it was in edge of a major loss, a drop of 100 pips more would have trigger the stops and a 50% of account loss.

That's the problem of martingale EAs, the drawdown is exponential and not linear, you need 500 pips drop to reach 10% drawdown but at 600 pips you are at 50% drawdown and at 620 you are at margin call. (this is only an example, drawdown depend of the amount of pairs and others factors)

That's the reason I stopped the developing of martingale EAs, not matter how many protections you add, the system is flawed from the start if you can't get rid of a incremental lot size and the exponential drawdown.

The Reward don't worth the Risk on those conditions.

I am coding a new version without any martingale but still a trend follower with some cost averaging scheme, and several new ideas, so far backtester results look very promising and with a way better relation risk/reward.

sharpe1234
11
sharpe1234  

Recovered Again from New Max DD

This time almost after recovering completely it reached a greater DD than last time which reached in around the -$26,500 area. However, again I am pulling out of that and am currently down -$4,600 in open float,while my equity has just now exceeed my $100,000 starting balance

icek
34
icek  
project1972:
I am coding a new version without any martingale but still a trend follower with some cost averaging scheme, and several new ideas, so far backtester results look very promising and with a way better relation risk/reward.

i completly agree with you. If a system is good , it doesn't need martingale MM :

A good martingale system is a very low risk one. A very low risk system can't offer an acceptable "rendement" coz you start with a minimum risk.

ie : if terminator 4.3 if a very good trader and won 8/10 of its trades ... 0.01 lot ( for 10 k) seems to be a bad ratio/risk for an order with 10 k. So you have to hope that this system loose his first (two , three ...) trade(s) to grow the position. So it is a problem : because a trader can't hope to loose a trade.

In the case of terminator 2.3 and 4.3 (etc..) if it looses a trade -> 2 configurations :

- it is only a problem of swing : martingale approach can resolve the problem.

- it is a reversal day : in the case of reversal day you never know what is going on. It could be a strong one. A complete panic. A martingale approach can blow your account without account protection if you are on the bad direction.

so if you play with yen (and carry currencies) : you play with fire. (look at 98 crisis) and politic climat is changing with Japon and China...etc.

(sorry for my poor english)

project1972
563
project1972  
- it is only a problem of swing : martingale approach can resolve the problem.

- it is a reversal day : in the case of reversal day you never know what is going on. It could be a strong one. A complete panic. A martingale approach can blow your account without account protection if you are on the bad direction.

so if you play with yen (and carry currencies) : you play with fire. (look at 98 crisis) and politic climat is changing with Japon and China...etc.

Trading any system without any type of stop is crazy, I am very clear with that, now the problem is find the correct type of stop and how set it without turn the system unprofitable.

That's why I abandoned this concept. To be honest I abandoned the developing of martingale many months ago, but I still had some hopes with this system because it performed very well the last months, but, anyway, I don't have the guts to use it on big accounts, and I don't recommend anyone to use it with money you can't afford to lose. I only used it on small mini-accounts I use for testing.

JanusTrading
421
JanusTrading  

Trading systems

I am trading manual, 3 different purely mechnical systems for several years.(in both directions)

Even though, all are profitable, they suffer from drawdowns as well.

These systems usually have a fixed stop loss, among other criteria, depending on the ATR and volatility of the pair.

Currently, i am trading only GBP/USD and EUR/USD, and on very rare occasions GBP/JPY or CHF.

Beeing GBP/JPY the most profitable one, but with the largest DD, as well.

Get that straight, DD in these systems is not generated by holding onto loosers nor by averaging into loosers.

It is a simple function of , how many times in a row, the signal is wrong and trades get stopped out.

Here are my personal max.DD figures from the last 12 month:

EUR/USD.........134pips(7 loosers in a row)

GBP/USD.........347pips(13 loosers in a row)

GBP/JPY..........712pips(6 loosers in a row)

Leverage i am trading is usually 1:2 equity vs lotsize.

Return figures are well above 35% for each pair p.a.

Usually never trade August and December, because of Holidayseason.

In T.4.11, i am trading just 1 JPY pair EUR/JPY at present and no GBP/CHF.I have also adjusted the "risk" function according to pipvalue and ATR to take care of the initial lotsize for each pair.(Setting for August updated)

Janus

icek
34
icek  

Frankly speaking trade in the same direction of interest rate (T4.11) seems to be a good strategy but do not be mechanical. If you are a carry trader (swinger+trend_follower etc. etc.) watch bloomberg, bank report (etc). Most of sold of carry position are predicted very well.

Carry trading is a science you know but very dangerous one. Some of big boys play the dance...

Talking about JPY is very intersting / i discover strong correlation between indices and JPY movement. In the case of big sold of gbp/jpy , there is always a strong correction of nikkei -> dax s&p.

(if you want to know the reason why i can give an explanation in french).

it is amazing and can you can earn a beantifull lollypop coz you can have 1 tempo in advance before the panic.

sharpe1234
11
sharpe1234  

Statement Update

Broker: NF Demo

Start: 14 July 07

Pairs: 26

Deposit:$100,000

Equity: $99,293.28

Closed Trades:$4,535.23

Open Trades: (-$5,241.95)

MAX DD Seen to Date: (-$26,700)

parez
10
parez  

Waiting Signal

Hi Project 1972,

I started T4.11 on IBFX Mini 20k on July 31 on 12 pairs with default settings, but since than nothing happen - all installed charts say "OrderType= Waiting Signal".

I trade 3 pairs (USDJPY, USDCHF and GPBUSD) manually with very small amounts, no T4.11 installed on this charts.

Is it OK, that the EA wait or is there a problem with my separate manual trading?

Paul