I'll try, otherwise I change to IBFX or NF.
I am pretty new to trading (about 2 months I studied manual trading and about 6 months I studied EA's). I just got access to the Elite Section, and I read the whole terminator threads. I really like this EA, I'm more confident with this one compared to the other versions
But I have a few questions:
1. I have never really followed the news on the fx markets. Does anyone know where I can find good resources on the market (when the market conditions are dangerous)?
2. Can I just attach the EA to all the pairs I want, without changing any parameters (for demo testing first).
3. I am not quite sure what you mean by these statements:
My research indicate that this system would have trigger the stops 2 times in two years.
Both during strong carry trades unwind, the last one during February of this year and the previous one during march, April 2006
Example: Low risk aversion typically happen between May to November, at the end of November, typically Investor start pulling money from the market and carry trades can suffer, this situation intensify on first days of January, Investor close their winning carry trades at that time to reopen some at the end of January, after middle February Japanese investors pull their money back to Japan to close their fiscal year and this condition could last until the begin of May.
So, do you suggest that I (we) should not trade from November to May?
Since both times the stops were triggered it was between those months..
4. When I did some backtests, I noticed that on GBPUSD the stops were triggered in July/August of 2006. The timeframe is 1H. All settings are default (SafeTradingRange=726 Pips Separation=91 TakeProfit=546 PipsSecureProfit=101)
Any idea what went wrong (initial deposit: 1500)?
See the attachment for the trades that it made
(I have modelling quality 90% from alpari-databank)
5. Since I am not that experienced, and do not know much about the news/events in the fx market, do you think I can trade with this EA with real money (ofcourse after several months of demo forward testing)?
6. to project1972: Don't you get tired with giving answers to us (newbs/noobs/others)? ;p (you may ignore this question)
Thx a lot for all the work you've done and sharing that,
That's the difficult point, common sense applies, I don't know if anyone can help you on this decision, but that's the most difficult part of this business, know when the market is done a real turning point or it will be a correction and how big it will be.
I don't know if remove totally the EA, but at least you should drop several pairs at the first days of December including most JPY pairs.
You are testing the EA with almost 7 times less than the required capital, you should test it with 10K minimal deposit size on Standard accounts and 0.01 minimal lot size.
1k of minimal deposit size is for mini Accounts at IBFX only, the pipvalue of your backtest show $10 it tell me that you are using a standard account.
It's your personal decision, I will hate if someone loss money for using this EA, but I can't be responsible for that if it happen. Get familiarized with the EA before think on using it.
Ah thx I got a mini account with ibfx with $1500 (started with $900 on november 2006 ) on it and I did the backtest on my demo account, which is a standard account,
I'll try it again tomorrow and I'll edit this post then
edit: I did the test on a new mini demo account and it passed that period pretty easy ($39 balance drawdown)
I'll test more tomorrow
Sorry to be a pain...:
FXDD changed my account to a micro account. I put the EA on 4 pairs, it opened 1 trade with 0.01 lotsize (1 pip = $0.1)...until here everything as I wanted.
But on the other 3 charts it says: "Low free margin available, no more trades"
although there is enough money for another 50 trades.
Maybe someone knows!
I think someone should write an article about leverage, lotsize, pipvalue, etc
If anyone know of any, please post it here.
You are overleveraging your account, FXDD use a standard lot size
Lotsize 1 lot = 100000 of the base currency
It mean that each pip of 1 LOT worth $10 (we are talking on EURUSD)
each pip of 0.01 LOT worth $0.10
YOU NEED $10000 TO TRADE THIS EA ON YOUR ACCOUNT
On IBFX mini accountsthey use different calculations
Lotsize 1 lot= 10000 of the base currency
each pip on 1 lot size worth $1
each pip on 0.01 lot worth $0.01 or ONE CENT
I suggest to stop the EA because it will blow-up your account, you are in serious overleverage condition.
My Targets for trading this EA
i am a long term follower of all 10p3 hybrids, in short Martingale progression trading EA`s.
Up to T.4.11, all these EA`s were simply not smart enough to sustain a strong trending market, since they usually reverse position after closing out one trend series.
They made money in ranging markets(80% of the time) and usually blow up your account in the remaining 20%(strong trends).
Project 1972 has already introduced his strategy of "positive swap" last summer, which i personally found very much suited my trading style.
While this eliminated some of the usual large Drawdowns, it still blew several demo and live accounts on strong carry unwind.
In T.4.11 several excellent tools are implemented in respect to Trade+Money management.These are account protection features for bad times.
Having said that the EA usues a very low leverage, which will result in a rather "low"(for most people) return over months of trading, but should prevent account busts and will for sure, if the account protection tools in the EA(equity protection+Margin protection) and all other safety measures are set properly.
Returns will vary anywhere between 2-4% per month, some months will be flat(like this one so far), but if this is your trading goal and you keep compounding profits monthly, you can expect a great return.
Unfortunatly these returns look stellar in percent, but most folks do judge a 100USD profit on a 5000USD account in a month as "not worth it".
This EA is not for speculators trying to "double" in a month.
Trade it with care, switch the Yen off in November and back on in April/May and keep the EA ticking in a DEMO account for at least 6 month, if you are a "newbie" to see what the market is doing to your money.
Keep in mind, that 200USD on 10k USD sounds not much, but also consider how many years it takes another 10k USD in a money market account to make back 10k if you lost them in a day or two on a very aggressive EA.
Drawdowns of around 4-5% are normal and will occur.For a return 5-10 times money market, you need to risk and take exposure.
We are in one of the worst conditions for carry trades in the last months, even in that condition. my demos are holding well, but drawdown reached 7% on Northfinace demo.
7% drawdown is nothing compared the 28% profit in 3 months, but still is a number beyond my confort zone.
I will like to know how others people are doing or see some statements.
Specialy I will like to know if anyone got stuck with many JPY pairs together. Please report.
The most likely outcome is that the Bank of Japan will increase interest rates in August, but there will still be caution in the short term, especially with fears that the LDP-led coalition will lose the Upper-House elections this weekend. International trends and capital flows will still tend to dominate in the short term. The overall tightening of credit and lending conditions, coupled with increased risk aversion, will deter aggressive capital flows out of Japan and there will be some risk of heavy capital repatriation if fears intensify. There will still be short-term interest in selling the yen on rallies, but conviction will weaken if the Japanese currency does not weaken significantly. On a near-term view, there is the potential for further dollar support below the 120.0 level, but dollar gains are likely to be limited with a potential move to 118.50 next week.
Overall risk aversion increased during Wednesday with continuing fears over sub-prime difficulties. A tightening of global lending standards and reduction in credit supply will cut securities issuance and will also tend to reduce the flow of Japanese funds into bonds which will tend to strengthen the capital account.
The latest weekly capital account recorded firm inflows into Japanese securities and a net drop in funds invested overseas by Japanese investors. The data illustrates the fact that increased investor caution is strengthening the short-term capital account position. There remains some risk of heavy capital repatriation which could result in even more substantial yen gains.
Current Trading update
for reasons you will all understand, i am not posting a real account statement.
So far Drawdown is 4% with only 2 Yen pairs open(EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY), which make up 60% of the DD.
Fortunatly the EA has detected the rather strong downtrend and is NOT opening new trades in these crosses and has the "Floating loss protection" on!
This will, as far as i can see, prevent new trades.
Still comfortable right here, but this can change soon.
Further reporting will occur..........not good, but much much better than with any other EA`s i have running on "Demos" at present.