Press review - page 544

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD - daily correction; 0.7346 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: price was bounced from 0.7557 resistance level to below for the secondary correction to be started. For now, the price is breaking descending triangle pattern to below together with 0.7346 support level for the correction to be continuing.

• "The New Zealand Dollar broke below trend line support guiding the move higher against its US cousin since mid-May, hinting a significant reversal is in the works. The move lower may reflect pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming RBNZ monetary policy announcement."
• "The next layer of significant support comes in at 0.7276, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A daily close below that opens the door for a challenge of the 50% level at 0.7188. Alternatively, a move back above the 23.6% Fib at 0.7384 paves the way for a retest of the 14.6% retracement at 0.7450."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CNH: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

2017-08-06 15:00 GMT | [USD - JOLTS Job Openings]

• past data is 5.70M
• forecast data is 5.74M
• actual data is 6.16M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - JOLTS Job Openings] = Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

• "The number of job openings increased to 6.2 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.4 million and 5.2 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 2.1 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four  geographic regions."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by JOLTS Job Openings news events

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by JOLTS Job Openings news events

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-08-09 02:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

• past data is 1.5%
• forecast data is 1.5%
• actual data is 1.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

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From rttnews article :

• "Consumer prices in China were up 1.4 percent on year in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday."
• "The bureau also said that producer prices advanced an annual 5.5 percent, missing forecasts for 5.6 percent which also would have been unchanged."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Consumer Price Index news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bullish ranging near 200 SMA reversal; daily bullish ranging within narrow levels; 52.91 is the key

2017-08-09 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -1.5M
• forecast data is -2.6M
• actual data is -6.5M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.5 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bounced from 200-SMA to above. The price was testing 200 SMA level together with 52.01 support to below for the bearish reversal but it was bounced from those levels to above for the bullish ranging near 200 SMA after that.

If M5 price breaks 52.66 resistance level to above on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 52.01 support level to below on close M5 bar so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

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Crude Oil Daily: ranging bullish reversal. The price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: price is on narrow ranging within 52.91 resistance and 50.86 support levels waiting for the direction of the strong trend to be started,

[Sergey Golubev]

Brent Crude Oil - daily bullish reversal with 52.91 key resistance (based on the article)

Price on the daily chart is breaking 200 SMA to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition with 52.91 resistance level to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be started.

• "Crude oil prices have been range bound for the past year between $39 and $55. The model we are following suggests continued consolidation between these two price points over the coming months."
• "This triangle pattern is valid so long as this current rise is contained under the 2017 high of $55.21 while holding above the June 2017 low of $42.08. Therefore, we are anticipating a dip to begin from slightly higher prices. This dip could work itself back towards the mid 40’s. This triangle pattern as labeled is a bullish triangle. Once the triangle pattern exhausts, we are anticipating a bullish breakout to above $55.21. Therefore, since the consolidation appears to be a pause of the previous uptrend, trend traders may want to follow a buy the dip strategy."

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Factory production and range price movement 

2017-08-10 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

• past data is -0.1%
• forecast data is -0.1%
• actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. 

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From official report :

• "In the 3 months to June 2017, the Index of Production was estimated to have decreased by 0.4% compared with the 3 months to March 2017, due mainly to a fall of 0.6% in manufacturing."
• "Manufacturing monthly growth was flat in June 2017; the largest downward contribution came from transport equipment, which fell by 3.6%, which was partially offset by an increase of 4.0% in other manufacturing and repair."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.K. Factory production news event 

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index - monthly correction; 91.93 is the key (based on the article)

The price on the monthly chart was bounced from 103.82 resistance level to below for the secondary correction to be started. Price is trying to test 91.93 support level together with descending triangle pattern to below for the correction to be continuing with 88,26 long-term bearish reversal target.

• "The downward momentum for the US Dollar has wobbled but overall remains on a course that anticipates further weakness. From a fundamental perspective, we heard recently from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley who said that it would take some time for US inflation to rise to 2%, especially on a year-on-year basis. While he blamed the effect on one-offs from months that will take a while to fall out of the year-on-year readings, there appears to be little reason to anticipate the Fed would turn to a surprisingly hawkish stance that would lift the USD out of its 2017 downtrend."
• "Last month, the key focus of USD weakness was EUR and commodity currency strength, which took EUR/USD above 1.19 and USD/CAD below 1.25. In August, so far, it appears that the Japanese Yen is the focal currency, which has recently traded toward 109 and is close to the lowest level since mid-June of 109.27. A break below 108.13, YTD low of USD/JPY, would argue that the common denominator of larger moves in FX this year has been a rather weak USD, which show few credible signs of turning."

[Sergey Golubev]

Bovespa Index - intra-day correction; 66,190 is the key (based on the article)

The price on hourly chart is on ranging correction by crossing 100 SMA together with 66,700 support level to below for the correction to be continuing with 66,190 bearish reversal target.

• "Ibovespa, the benchmark stock index in Brazil, closed down 1% at 66,992.09 points Thursday, reflecting investors' fears that the government might miss its fiscal targets for 2017 and 2018 and amid mutual threats between the United States and North Korea."
• "According to Pedro Galdi, an analyst at Magliano Corretora, Brazil's Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles said that a revision of the fiscal target would occur in September, but there are reports that the announcement would come sooner. "The speech is not coherent. Moreover, it is not known if the target will indicate a primary deficit greater than R$ 159 billion, which could make rating agencies lower Brazil," he added."

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (based on the article)

An uptick in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may stoke a near-term pullback in EUR/USD as signs of rising inflation puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to further normalize monetary policy in 2017.

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

Even though Fed Fund Futures largely price a 50% probability for a move in December, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may stay on course to deliver three rate-hikes in 2017 as central bank officials expect to achieve the 2% target for inflation over the policy horizon. In turn, the FOMC may endorse a more aggressive approach at the next interest rate decision on September 20 especially as the FOMC ‘expects to begin implementing its balance sheet normalization program relatively soon.’ 

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: Headline and Core Inflation Picks Up in July

• Need a red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
• If the market reaction favors a bullish dollar position, sell EUR/USD with two separate lots.
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: CPI Report Falls Short of Market Forecasts

• Need a green, five-minute EUR/USD candle to consider a short dollar trade.
• Implement the same approach as the bullish dollar position, just in the opposite direction.

EUR/USD Daily

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[Sergey Golubev]

Bitcoin prices - daily bullish breakout (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullsh area of the chart: price is breaking 3,483 resistance level to above together with ascending triangle pattern for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "The world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization reached as much as $3,646.87 today, according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (BPI), helping the digital asset set an all-new high. "It's an incredible bull trend," said Petar Zivkovski, COO of leveraged cryptocurrency platform Whaleclub."
• "Going forward, some market experts are quite optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects."