XAUUSD New York Session Plan — 10 Nov 2026 | Will the CPI Low Hold?
Analytics & Forecasts

XAUUSD New York Session Plan — 10 Nov 2026 | Will the CPI Low Hold?

10 November 2026, 14:22
Ryuzo Fukushima
Ryuzo Fukushima
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Gold is trading at 4,057 an hour into the New York session. The US CPI release at 13:30 GMT knocked it down to 4,040 in the first five minutes, and it has since won back about half of that drop.

The bigger move today came before the data: London broke the Asian low at 4,108 and ran down to 4,069. I'm not selling down here. I'll wait to sell a rally into 4,069–4,074, or to sell a retest of 4,040 if New York breaks it.

H4 | Back under all three SMAs

XAUUSD H4

9 SMA: 4,101 · 21 SMA: 4,093 · 200 SMA: 4,107

Gold bottomed at 3,870 on 30 Oct and rallied to 4,147 on 5 Nov, spiking above the falling 200 SMA without holding it. Friday's pullback held at 4,026, and yesterday price pushed to 4,149 at 20:00 GMT, barely above the 5 Nov high.

That push did not last. Today's 06:00 and 10:00 candles took gold from 4,126 down to 4,040, and price is now trading under the 9, 21 and 200 SMAs. The 9 SMA is still above the 21 SMA, so the rally from 3,870 hasn't fully rolled over on this chart, but the failed breakout above 4,147 is clear.

▲ Resistance: 4,069–4,080 (today's pre-CPI range), then 4,093–4,107 (the three H4 SMAs)

▼ Support: 4,040 (CPI low), then 4,026–4,030 (Friday's lows)

H1 | Lower highs since yesterday's high

XAUUSD H1

9 SMA: 4,086 · 21 SMA: 4,107 · 200 SMA: 4,025

The H1 highs have come in lower since yesterday's 4,149: 4,146 at 23:00 GMT yesterday, 4,128 at 05:00 and 4,122 at 08:00. The Asian low was 4,108 at 03:00, and London broke it on the 09:00 candle.

The 9 SMA has crossed under the 21 SMA, and price is below both. The 200 SMA at 4,025 sits right next to Friday's 4,026 low, so that is the next support below 4,040. Until H1 prints a higher high, my main plans are to sell rallies.

M15 | A two-hour range, then the CPI drop

XAUUSD M15

9 SMA: 4,069 · 21 SMA: 4,076 · 200 SMA: 4,098

The London sell-off started at 09:00 GMT from 4,113 and ran until 11:00, bottoming at 4,069 (the London low). From there gold went sideways between 4,069 and 4,080 for over two hours.

CPI broke that range. The 13:30 candle fell to 4,040 and closed at 4,057. Now the old range sits right above price, and the M15 9 and 21 SMAs run through it, so 4,069–4,080 is the first place I'd expect sellers to step back in.

M5 | Bouncing, but under the 21 SMA

XAUUSD M5

9 SMA: 4,058 · 21 SMA: 4,068 · 200 SMA: 4,110

After the 4,040 low, the bounce reached 4,063 at 13:45 GMT. The pullback that followed held at 4,049 at 13:55, and price is back at the 9 SMA.

The 21 SMA at 4,068 lines up with the London low. I want price to come up into that area and stall there before I sell.

After the CPI

Headline CPI m/m came in at 0.4% vs 0.5% expected (prior 0.6%). Core CPI m/m came in at 0.3% vs 0.2% expected (prior 0.3%). The index level printed 337.476 against 338.683 expected.

Gold was at 4,072 just before the release. It popped $3 to 4,075, then fell to 4,040 inside the first five minutes, and the first M5 candle closed at 4,044. Thirty minutes after the release, it was at 4,052.

A soft headline with a hot core is a mixed print, but the core number tends to matter more for rate expectations. A firmer core keeps yields supported, and that usually weighs on gold. Gold's reaction matched that read: it sold off hard and the bounce has stayed under the pre-CPI range. As long as price stays under 4,069–4,080, I'm looking to sell.

Today's Events (GMT)

  • 18:00 — US 10-year note auction
  • 20:30 — Fed's Bowman speaks

The CPI is out, so the main risk for today is behind us. I won't open a new trade in the minutes around 18:00, because the auction can move yields. I want to be flat before the New York close.

Entry Plans

Main plans (with the trend)

Plan 1 (main): Sell the retest of the London low at 4,069–4,074

Plan 1

This is the bottom of the pre-CPI range, where the London sell-off stopped at 11:00, with the M5 21 SMA sitting just under it. If price rallies into the zone and an M5 candle rejects it with an upper wick, I'll sell. If it pokes a few dollars above the zone but closes back inside, I'll still take it.

  • Entry: 4,071
  • SL: 4,081
  • TP1: 4,049
  • TP2: 4,040
  • TP3: 4,026

Plan 2: Sell the retest of the CPI low at 4,038–4,042

Plan 2

If M15 closes below 4,040, the CPI low is gone. I won't sell the breakdown candle. I'll wait for price to come back up to 4,038–4,042, and sell when it gets rejected there with an upper wick.

  • Entry: 4,040
  • SL: 4,052
  • TP1: 4,030
  • TP2: 4,026
  • TP3: 4,014

Counter-trend

Plan 3: Buy the retest of the pre-CPI range high at 4,078–4,082

Plan 3

If I get a full-bodied M15 close above 4,082, the CPI drop has been fully reversed and buyers have the short-term edge. I'll wait for price to retest 4,078–4,082 from above and hold it with a lower wick, then buy for a smaller move.

  • Entry: 4,080
  • SL: 4,067
  • TP1: 4,088
  • TP2: 4,098
  • TP3: 4,112

Summary

My main plan is to sell a rally into 4,069–4,074 with a stop above the pre-CPI range, aiming for 4,049 and then the 4,040 CPI low. If New York breaks 4,040 first, I'll sell the retest of 4,038–4,042 instead. I only turn to buying if M15 closes above 4,082.

Levels I'm watching:

  • 4,078–4,082: buy zone after an M15 close above 4,082 (pre-CPI range high)
  • 4,069–4,074: main sell zone (London low)
  • 4,040: CPI low, sell the retest after a break below it
  • 4,026–4,030: Friday's lows, with the H1 200 SMA at 4,025

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#gold, xauusd, trading plan, CPI, New York session