Spot Rates
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EUR/USD: 1.1185
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USD/JPY: 157.60
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GBP/USD: 1.3392
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USD/CHF: 0.8222
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USD/CAD: 1.3974
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AUD/USD: 0.7026
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NZD/USD: 0.5635
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EUR/GBP: 0.8351
Today — 30 October
EUR/USD
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1.1075 — €1.6bn
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1.1100 — €1.8bn
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1.1125 — €989m
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1.1150 — €5.6bn — largest
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1.1170 — €696m
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1.1175 — €2.2bn
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1.1200 — €4.5bn
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1.1225 — €737m
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1.1250 — €762m
Spot is 1.1185.
The nearest level is 1.1175, around 10 pips below spot. The 1.1200 level is around 15 pips above. A total of €6.7bn is positioned across these two levels, which sit on either side of spot.
The immediate levels to watch today are 1.1175, with €2.2bn, and 1.1200, with €4.5bn. Ahead of the NY cut, watch which level price approaches and whether it settles after reaching it.
To the downside, 1.1170 is around 15 pips below spot, followed by 1.1150 around 35 pips lower. The largest position, €5.6bn at 1.1150, is an important level if the pair falls below 1.1175 and 1.1170 and the decline continues.
If EUR/USD also breaks below 1.1150 and fails to recover, the next listed levels are 1.1125, around 60 pips below spot; 1.1100, around 85 pips below; and then 1.1075.
To the upside, if the pair breaks above 1.1200 and holds, watch 1.1225, around 40 pips higher, and 1.1250, around 65 pips higher.
There are several large options positions, but that does not guarantee price will stay within a particular range. Focus on the reaction as each level is approached.
USD/JPY
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157.00 — $1.2bn
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157.50 — $831m
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157.80 — $619m
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158.00 — $2.1bn — largest
Spot is 157.60.
The nearest level is 157.50, around 10 pips below spot. To the upside, 157.80 is around 20 pips higher. The first focus is how price reacts at these two levels.
Watch whether price settles around 157.50 and holds, or rebounds toward 157.80. If it falls below 157.50 and fails to recover, 157.00, around 60 pips lower, is the next listed level.
The largest position, at 158.00, is around 40 pips above spot. It is an important level if USD/JPY breaks above 157.80 and continues higher, but its $2.1bn size alone is not a reason to expect a move toward 158.00.
Ahead of the NY cut, the key question is whether price continues to trade around 157.50 or approaches 157.80–158.00.
GBP/USD
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1.3300 — £726m
Spot is 1.3392.
The 1.3300 level is around 92 pips below spot. It is too far away to have much direct influence on price near current levels, but is worth watching if the pair falls significantly.
Treat it as a level to monitor if approached, rather than as immediate support.
USD/CHF
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0.8325 — $610m
Spot is 0.8222.
The 0.8325 level is around 103 pips above spot. It is a level to watch if the pair rebounds substantially.
It is some distance away, so do not assume a rally or a return to 0.8325 solely because options are positioned there.
USD/CAD
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1.4025 — $791m — largest
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1.4040 — $701m
Spot is 1.3974.
The nearest level, 1.4025, is around 51 pips above spot, followed by 1.4040 around 66 pips higher. A total of $1.492bn is concentrated across these two levels.
Watch whether USD/CAD rebounds toward 1.4025 and settles after reaching it. If it breaks above 1.4025 and holds, 1.4040 is the next listed level.
Both levels are above spot; they do not bracket the current price. First, assess whether the rebound has momentum.
AUD/USD
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0.6925 — A$612m
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0.7000 — A$614m
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0.7025 — A$1.2bn — largest
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0.7075 — A$600m
Spot is 0.7026.
The largest position, at 0.7025, is just 1 pip below spot. It is an important level today by both size and proximity.
Watch whether AUD/USD trades back and forth or settles around 0.7025 ahead of the NY cut, or breaks away from the level and establishes a direction.
If the pair falls below 0.7025 and fails to recover, 0.7000, around 26 pips lower, is the next listed level. Do not assume that 0.7025 will act as a floor simply because options are positioned there.
To the upside, 0.7075 is around 49 pips higher. It is a level to watch if the pair holds 0.7025 and continues rising.
The 0.6925 level is around 101 pips below spot. For now, prioritise 0.7025, followed by 0.7000 and 0.7075.
NZD/USD and EUR/GBP
No notable options are listed for today.
Next Business Day — 2 November
EUR/USD
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1.1150 — €2.7bn — largest
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1.1175 — €660m
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1.1200 — €901m
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1.1250 — €654m
Based on the current spot rate, the nearest level is 1.1175, around 10 pips below. The 1.1200 level is around 15 pips above, placing the pair between the two levels going into the new week.
Both 1.1175 and 1.1200 are listed for today and the next business day. After today’s expiry, watch for a reaction around these levels again on Monday.
The largest position, at 1.1150, is around 35 pips below spot. There are €5.6bn in options at this level today and another €2.7bn for the next business day, making it a sizeable level across both sessions.
If the pair falls, watch 1.1175 and then 1.1150. If it rises, 1.1200 is the next level, followed by 1.1250 around 65 pips higher.
USD/JPY
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157.00 — $1.5bn — largest
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158.00 — $1.2bn
Based on the current spot rate, 158.00 is around 40 pips higher and 157.00 around 60 pips lower.
Both levels have more than $1bn in options for today and the next business day, keeping them in focus into Monday.
However, neither level is immediately adjacent to spot. Watch price action first, then monitor the reaction around 158.00 if the pair rises or 157.00 if it falls.
USD/CHF
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0.8300 — $952m
Based on the current spot rate, 0.8300 is around 78 pips higher.
It is closer than today’s 0.8325 level, but still some distance from spot. Watch it if USD/CHF rebounds into Monday.
GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD and EUR/GBP
No notable options are listed for the next business day.
Overall Picture
Today, AUD/USD’s 0.7025 is the closest level, just 1 pip below spot. It is also the largest position, at A$1.2bn, making price action around it a key focus ahead of the NY cut.
EUR/USD’s 1.1175 is around 10 pips below spot and 1.1200 is around 15 pips above. A total of €6.7bn is concentrated across the two levels. A further €5.6bn is positioned at 1.1150, around 35 pips below, leaving large options levels below the current price as well.
USD/JPY’s 157.50 is around 10 pips below spot and 157.80 around 20 pips above. If the pair continues higher, the $2.1bn at 158.00, around 40 pips above, is an important level.
USD/CAD’s 1.4025–1.4040 zone, GBP/USD’s 1.3300 and USD/CHF’s 0.8325 are some distance from spot, so treat them as levels to monitor if approached.
For the next business day, EUR/USD’s 1.1175 and 1.1200 are relatively close to spot. For USD/JPY, watch the reaction near 157.00 or 158.00 if price approaches either level. For USD/CHF, monitor any move toward 0.8300.
Trading Strategy
For EUR/USD, watch the reaction at 1.1175 and 1.1200. If the pair falls below 1.1175 and fails to recover, 1.1170 is the next level, followed by the large position at 1.1150. If it breaks above 1.1200 and holds, watch 1.1225 and then 1.1250.
For USD/JPY, the key question is whether 157.50 holds. On a rebound, watch 157.80 and then 158.00. If the pair falls below 157.50 and continues lower, 157.00 is the next listed level.
For AUD/USD, focus on the reaction at 0.7025, which is almost exactly at spot. Watch whether price continues to trade around the level, breaks lower toward 0.7000 or moves away to the upside.
For USD/CAD, monitor the 1.4025–1.4040 zone on a rebound. As these levels are some distance from spot, assess whether the rebound is continuing rather than assuming price will return to the options levels.
After the NY cut, watch whether price moves beyond the options levels that had contained trading beforehand.
