After August's breakout to new highs, gold spent September giving a large part of it back. From around 4,390 at the start of the month it worked its way lower through payrolls, a Fed hike and hot PMI data — and on Monday, 28 September, it finally gave way below 4,240 and kept going under 4,200. The system closed the month at +3.57 %, and almost all of it came from that one Monday.
The month in numbers
- 19 trades (my long-run average is ~31 a month)
- 13 winners, 6 losers — win rate 68 %
- Net result: +3.57 % (+150.52 €)
- Profit factor: 2.20
- Best trade: +2.96 % (+125.66 €) — short from 4,244 on 28 September, closed at 4,196 after 2 h 24 m
- Worst trade: −0.65 % (−27.21 €) — short on 2 September, stopped out
- Active on 8 of 22 trading days
- Direction: 19 of 19 trades short
One session paid for the month
Until the last week, September was a slightly negative month. By 27 September the account was down about 0.9 % on the month, and at its lowest point, after 14 September, about 1.4 %.
Then on 28 September the level around 4,240 that gold had been leaning on for days broke in the early Asian session. The system opened six shorts in the first seconds of the move. Two of them hit target within three seconds, the main position ran for 2 h 24 m down to 4,196. Together those six trades made +186.19 € — roughly 4.4 % in a single session.
That is how this system makes money, and it's worth saying plainly: not a little every day, but a few sessions a month that carry the result. In August it was 5 August. In September it was 28 September. In between there's mostly waiting, small results and the occasional stopped trade.
Same direction as August's losses — different outcome
In August, both losing trades of the month were shorts — fades against a market that was breaking higher. In September, every single trade was a short, and the month closed positive.
So direction isn't the edge. A short is a good trade when the level beneath the price has actually been taken, and a bad one when it hasn't. September had both kinds, and the next section is about the second.
Where I lost money
Six losing trades, in three clusters:
- 1–2 September: two shorts around 4,310–4,325, both stopped out (−20.95 € and −27.21 €). Instead of continuing lower, gold bounced back up towards 4,470 ahead of payrolls.
- 14 September: the first short of the day made +24.14 € in seven minutes. Then three more shorts near 4,282 were stopped at 4,289–4,292 (−17.08 €, −20.99 €, −26.55 €). The day closed −40.48 €. The 4,300 area hadn't been taken yet — it held for more than another week before it finally gave way.
- 16 September: one of two shorts was stopped (−12.51 €), the other closed +33.00 €.
All six losses together: −125.29 €, about 3 % of the balance, spread over a whole month. The largest single loss was −0.65 % — well below August's −1.67 %, which is still the largest realised loss in the two-year history.
The 14 September cluster is the one I'd point to: right direction, too early. The level was still being defended, and the stops did exactly what they're there for.
Track record — verified, live
Full history since August 2024, as of 1 October 2026:
- Gain: +209.43 %
- 817 trades, win rate 80 %, profit factor 2.22
- Average monthly return: 4.54 %
- Maximum drawdown: 15.32 %
- 21 of 26 months positive — worst month −5.64 % (February 2025), best +18.84 % (January 2026)
- 2026 year to date: +65.1 %
The same live account is published as a signal on MQL5, where the growth figure reads about +162 %. That's not a discrepancy: MQL5 counts growth from the day the signal was published (26 February 2026), the full track record counts from the first deposit in August 2024. Same account, two starting points.
Looking to October
No prediction and no target. Gold enters October below 4,200 after a month of lower highs, with the Fed decision at the end of the month as the obvious event. Whatever the direction, the approach doesn't change: trade levels that have actually been taken, and wait when they haven't.
You can follow AlphaEdge Smart with the full verified statistics on my profile. Questions about the system, the numbers or the losing trades? Ask in the comments — I answer everyone.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading gold with leverage involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Results of copied trades may differ from the provider's account due to slippage, spreads and execution.
