Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 21 – 27, 2026

The past week once again unfolded under the influence of geopolitics, as well as market reactions to central bank decisions. The US Federal Reserve kept the rate unchanged, confirming a wait-and-see stance and caution regarding further inflation slowdown. The ECB also left its policy parameters unchanged, signalling the continuation of a tight stance. The Bank of England held its rate, while the tone remained mixed, reflecting the balance between slowing economic growth and still elevated inflation. As a result, yields on US government bonds started to decline, which put pressure on the dollar and contributed to its weakening by the end of the week.

💶 EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair managed to edge higher and finished the week near 1.1570 (1.1415 seven days earlier). The nearest resistance is now located in the 1.1600-1.1620 zone. A breakout of this level may open the way to 1.1700 and further to the 1.1765-1.1830 area. The nearest support is located at 1.1510-1.1530, followed by 1.1390-1.1415. As long as the pair holds above the 1.1510-1.1530 zone, pressure on the euro remains limited. This corresponds to the overall market reaction, where the dollar weakened against the backdrop of gains in the euro and the pound after central bank meetings.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Bitcoin finished the week at 70,530. Thus, the market held above 70,000 but once again failed to gain momentum for sustained growth. Another attempt to consolidate above 74,000 ended unsuccessfully – after reaching a high of 76,022 on March 16, BTC/USD then returned to its initial position in the 70,000 area. The nearest resistance remains at 74,000. A confident breakout may open the way to 80,000, while the next target for bulls remains a return to the 85,000-90,000 corridor. If risk-off sentiment intensifies and the price falls below 70,000, the nearest support is located in the 68,000-68,800 area, followed by 65,000-65,600, 62,415-63,000 and 59,785-60,000.

🛢 Brent Oil

Oil remains the main barometer of geopolitical risks. On Friday, March 20, Brent closed at 112.19. After a spike to 119.13 the day before, the market remains highly volatile. The nearest resistance is 114.00. If tensions in the Middle East do not ease, a new test of 119.00 cannot be ruled out. In case of a correction, the nearest support is located at 110.000, followed by 103.00-105.00 and 100.00. Under current volatility, discussing tenths and hundredths of a dollar in price quotations has no practical meaning.

🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold declined noticeably by the end of the week, falling to 4,497 dollars per ounce. Thus, the market broke not only the 5,000 level but also the area of the upward medium-term support. The decline is associated with a reassessment of expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy: the market is pricing in a longer period of high rates amid inflation risks and rising energy prices. Additional pressure came from profit-taking after the strong rally in 2025. The nearest resistance is now located at 4,650-4,730, followed by 4,850 and 5,000. The nearest support is 4,440, followed by the psychological level of 4,400 and the 4,200-4,250 zone.

📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week

Next week, market attention will shift to macroeconomic data. On March 24, preliminary PMI data will be released in the US and the Eurozone. On March 26, initial jobless claims will be published in the US. On March 27, the PCE and Core PCE indices in the US, the key inflation indicators for the Federal Reserve, will be released. These publications may determine whether pressure on the dollar persists or the market continues to weaken it.

Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral-to-bullish while the price remains above 1.1510-1.1530. BTC/USD – neutral while the market holds around 70,000. Brent – volatile bullish scenario while the price remains above 105.00. XAU/USD – neutral-to-bearish while prices remain below 4,650-4,730