WEEKLY FORECAST (Feb 16–20, 2026) XAUUSD Weekly Forecast: Gold Stabilizing Above $5,000 as Fed Policy and Economic Data
XAUUSD Weekly Forecast: Gold Stabilizing Above $5,000 as Fed Policy and Economic Data Drive Direction
Gold begins the week consolidating near the critical $5,000 psychological level following recent inflation data and volatile institutional positioning. Spot gold is currently trading near $4,987–$5,020, stabilizing after profit-taking and recent CPI-driven volatility.
The broader trend remains bullish, but price has entered a redistribution phase after the extreme rally toward $5,500.
Fundamental Outlook — Key Events This Week
Major macro catalysts:
• FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday)
• US Jobless Claims and Manufacturing Data (Thursday)
• US GDP and Core PCE inflation data (Friday)
• Global inflation releases and central bank positioning
These events will directly influence USD strength, interest rate expectations, and gold volatility.
Gold is highly sensitive to Fed policy. Cooling inflation (recent CPI 2.4%) has increased expectations of future rate cuts, which is supportive for gold.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, strengthening bullish momentum.
Weekly Technical Structure
Gold is currently consolidating above the critical $5,000 institutional equilibrium zone.
Key Weekly Support Levels:
• 4,885 — major structural support
• 4,850 — institutional demand zone
• 4,772 — deeper corrective support
Key Weekly Resistance Levels:
• 5,110 — breakout confirmation level
• 5,280 — major resistance target
• 5,300–5,500 — macro resistance zone
A breakout above 5,110 opens continuation toward 5,280.
A breakdown below 4,885 opens correction toward 4,772.
4-Hour and Daily EMA Structure
The 20 EMA remains the most important dynamic support/resistance indicator.
Current behavior:
• Price above 20 EMA → bullish continuation probability
• Price below 20 EMA → bearish corrective phase
• Rejection at 20 EMA → continuation confirmation
Gold is currently rotating around this dynamic equilibrium level, confirming consolidation rather than trend expansion.
Indicator Analysis
ADX (Trend Strength)
Daily ADX:
• Moderate trend strength
• Rising ADX signals expansion phase approaching
ADX above 25 confirms directional trend expansion.
RSI (Momentum Conditions)
Daily RSI:
• Neutral-bullish territory
• Momentum available for expansion
4H RSI:
• Rotating between 40–60 range
• Confirms consolidation phase
Parabolic SAR
Daily and 4H SAR:
• Flipping near current price
• Confirms consolidation and indecision phase
SAR flip below price confirms bullish continuation.
Oscillator Conditions and Multi-Timeframe Use
4H and 1H oscillators:
• Currently neutral
• Confirm range conditions
5M and 15M oscillators should be used for entry timing only.
Best weekly execution approach:
Buy conditions:
• Oversold oscillator on 1H or 15M
• Support level alignment
• Price holding above 4H 20 EMA
Sell conditions:
• Overbought oscillator
• Resistance alignment
• Price below 4H 20 EMA
Weekly Trade Scenarios
Bullish Scenario:
Entry: 4,885–4,950
Targets:
5,110
5,280
Bearish Scenario:
Entry: 5,110 rejection
Targets:
4,900
4,772
Execution Perspective
This is a structured institutional accumulation and consolidation phase.
These are the exact structured volatility environments my automated systems are designed to execute.
Emerge EA (Flagship System)
Designed for multi-timeframe execution aligned with EMA structure, momentum, and volatility expansion.
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Minting EA
Designed for structured intraday volatility participation and disciplined execution.
Both systems automate execution across EMA structure, ADX strength, RSI momentum, SAR trend confirmation, and oscillator timing.
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