Last week’s volatility in equities spurred investors into safe-haven US treasuries, pushing the 10-yr yield from 2.8% down to 2.6%. This Wednesday’s US consumer price data, we believe, will come in lower than expected, thanks to easing energy prices. The US economy is growing, but softly, and the bull market, while now wounded, still has room to run.
All told, risk aversion and a downturn in real yields suggest a higher greenback is unlikely near term.
By Peter Rosenstreich