EUR/USD: investors believe in the future of the European economy

9 October 2017, 13:44

As the indicator of Sentix investors' confidence published today shows, investors believe in the future of the European economy. This is the leading indicator of the economic health of the Eurozone, as changes in investor sentiment may be an early signal for future economic activity.

For October, the indicator Sentix came out with a value of 29.7 (forecast was 28.5 and 28.2 in the previous month). In the monthly survey of Sentix, 1,600 financial analysts and investors participate, and this is the highest value of the indicator since March 2008 and since July 2016.

According to the report, the mood of investors was practically not affected by the results of the elections to the German Bundestag, where the ruling "Christian Democratic Union" (CDU) received 33% of the votes of the deputies - the weakest result for this party since 1949. New elections in Germany are unlikely, but it is possible that if the winning ruling party, Angela Merkel, has problems in finding supporters for the bloc. Political instability in this country could have the most negative impact on the positions of the single currency.

The referendum in Catalonia also seems to have had little effect on investor sentiment.

The German industrial production figures published in August show that the country's economy has overcome the seasonal decline and has returned to growth. Germany's industrial production in August grew by 2.6% compared with July (forecast was + 0.7%).

Production orders in Germany in August rose by 3.6% (+ 0.7% in the previous report) and 7.8% in annual terms (+ 4.7% in the previous report). At the same time, export orders in the manufacturing sector in Germany grew by 4.3%. Such positive data were presented by the Statistical Office of Germany last Friday. The latest data show a positive outlook for Germany's GDP growth in the third quarter.

Germany remains the center of the European Union, and its economy is the locomotive of the European economy. Positive macro statistics from Germany can testify to positive growth prospects not only of the German, but of the entire Eurozone economy.

Today in the US is a day off (Columbus Day). American exchanges are closed, so the trading volume will be low.

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Support and resistance levels

The EUR/USD continues to trade near the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart, passing near the mark 1.1705.

The breakdown of the support level 1.1705 will provoke a decline to support level 1.1630 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). The break of this level will open the way to support levels 1.1360 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900).

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the side of sellers.

The alternative scenario involves the return of the EUR/USD to the zone above the resistance levels 1.1780 (EMA50 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2%), 1.1820 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and the resumption of growth in the uplink on the weekly chart 1.2180 (the upper border of the channel and the Fibonacci level of 50%). The first signal for growth will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level 1.1765 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

Support levels: 1.1705, 1.1630, 1.1360, 1.1285

Resistance levels: 1.1765, 1.1780, 1.1820, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180


Trading Scenarios

Sell ​​Stop 1.1710. Stop-Loss 1.1770. Take-Profit 1.1670, 1.1630, 1.1600, 1.1400

Buy Stop 1.1770. Stop-Loss 1.1710. Take-Profit 1.1800, 1.1820, 1.1870, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website

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