30 June 2016, 11:26
Vasilii Apostolidi

EUR/USD: Bearish: Room to extend lower but 1.0820 is a major support.

While the rebound from last Friday’s 1.0909 low has been more resilient than expected, there is no change to the bearish outlook for EUR. The current price action is viewed as a corrective rebound and as long as 1.0210 is not taken out, a move to 1.0820 cannot be ruled out just yet.

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GBP/USD: Bearish: A move to 1.3000 would not be surprising. [No change in view]

The short-term GBP strength is viewed as a corrective rebound and it is too early to expect a sustained recovery. Trading is expected to remain volatile but at this stage, we do not see GBP moving back above the stop-loss for our bearish view at 1.3785. This level is expected to move lower if the current volatility abates further. Target remains unchanged at 1.3000 even though Monday’s low of 1.3120/25 is acting as a strong intermediate support.

AUD/USD: Neutral: Expect choppy trading between 0.7305/0.7510.

AUD is rebounding quickly from the 0.7325 low seen on Monday. While the up-move appears to have scope to extend higher and test the strong 0.7510 resistance, a clear break above this level is not expected. In other words, we are holding on to our neutral view for now and expect AUD to continue to trade choppily within a 0.7305/0.7510 range.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a broad 0.6975/0.7170 range.

NZD came close to the major 0.6975 support on Monday (low of 0.6971) but rebounded sharply. The up-move is viewed as part of a broader consolidation and not the start of a sustained rally. That said, a test of the major resistance at 0.7170 would not be surprising. Overall, we continue to hold a neutral view and expect further range trading between 0.6975/0.7170.

USD/JPY: Neutral: In a broad 100.00/105.00 range. [No change in view]

There is not much to add as the near-term outlook is still unclear after the outsized range last Friday. For now, it seems that 100.00/105.00 should be enough to contain the short-term market volatility for the next several day.

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