Here are the headlines that will determine the next Brexit market move

We're waiting for comments from two people

The EU has made itself clear, it won't negotiate a new deal with Britain until an Article 50 notice. That might be posturing but it's the best we have to go on right now and it won't change imminently.

What we will learn next is who is on the other side of the table.

The favourites at the moment -- by a landslide -- are Boris Johnson and Theresa May. One of those two is likely to be the next UK Prime Minister and will be responsible for taking Britain out of the EU (or staying).

Neither has declared for the Conservative leadership yet and the deadline is Thursday at noon BST.

What will be critical is how they frame their candidacies.

If the both sound 100% committed to leaving the EU, then the two day bounce in GBP and risk trades is extremely vulnerable.

If both open the door to remaining, even slightly, look for an extended rebound. Even a campaign that shifts the focus away from Brexit could be construed positively.

If they stake out opposite positions, it will be back to poll watching and at the moment, they're running neck-and-neck.