Today’s Main events will be the BoE’s Monetary Policy Summary & Meeting Minutes, early in today’s New York session, followed later in the session by US Consumer Price Index, which will be highly influential in regards to expectations and the likelihood of a July hike by the Fed.
Current Sentiment:
Yesterday’s FOMC statement was slightly more dovish than anticipated with the Fed failing to explicitly indicate a potential hike in July, aside from the usual “all meetings are live rhetoric”. Fed members now see less hikes than prior forecasts. This weighed on the dollar somewhat.
The early Asian session saw GDP from NZ beat estimates at 0.7% vs 0.5% expected for Q1. Kiwi rallied over 50 pips but is now off recent highs given the risk-off tone.
The BoJ refrained from policy adjustments as we expected, and consequently the yen has boomed across the board; USDJPY down 230 pips from yesterday’s highs and further yen appreciation is expected as we approach the referendum. A ‘leave’ vote will further boost the yen for weeks after the referendum due to the uncertainty surrounding the full extent of economic ramifications.
